Skrg masalahnya terlalu banyak news riset dari berbagai sekuritas yang beda-beda, ada yang 3800, 1100, dll
Dan mereka bisa dibilang juga selalu cepat berubah, dengan alasan news dari BUMI juga banyak dan berganti-ganti Ini yang bisa bikin bingung boss, kita gak tau aslinya BUMI itu gimana, news yang dateng kebanyakan dan jaraknya pendek2 So, it wise for us to see a chart, and chartnya memang masih uptend --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Joe Grunk <joe_gr...@...> wrote: > > Anda agak klise Billy. Jangan begitulah, kalau punya barang. > > > > Newmont deal too confusing: Who bought what? > The > ownership split between the regional government and Multicapital for the 10% > stake > in Newmont Nusa Tenggara remains unclear. We do know from the media > the > ownership of Multicapital: Bakrie Capital, 95% stake; BUMI, 5%. But yesterday > the > local media reported that the US$391mn payment all transferred from > BUMIâs > account. > At this point, weâre not sure how to value BUMIâs stake in Newmont. > Earnings, PO > cut further on higher debt > To > factor in the recent debt issuance of US$600mn (US$300mn from CS end-Oct > and > recent US$300mn bond), we cut our earnings further by 7% for 2010E and > 11% for > 2011E. We cut our PO > by 7% to Rp2,700, implying 17x 2010E P/E. We > continue > to question BUMIâs rationale to increase its debt, while in the meantime > the > long-term value from the newly acquired assets is difficult to assess looking > at > how the > Newmont acquisition was done. > BHPâs Maruwai â" not yet a done deal > for BUMI > We > think investors are holding BUMI shares in anticipation that it will get > BHPâs > Maruwai > coal project. But besides BUMI, Adaro is also interested. Moreover, we > think > Adaro has geared up enough in anticipation for this acquisition while we see > BUMI > requiring more debt. Next big ticket items for BUMI that we can think of are > 14% > stake in Newmont and an estimated capex of US$1bn required for its coal > mine > expansion. > Bullish on coal price; focus on SAR and Adaro > We > continue to be bullish on coal price, especially with the approach of > December. > To put things into context, while China demand is picking up because > of the > snow storm, Indonesia > reportedly had to cut supply 8.5% MoM on bad > weather. > But since there are too many moving parts in BUMI, we prefer SAR and > Adaro > on coal price. > SAR and ADRO liquidity improving > One of > BUMIâs selling points for investors who wanted exposure to Indonesia coal > was its > liquidity. YTD, BUMIâs trading value has been roughly US$32mn, vs. > SARâs > US$22mn and ADROâs US$7mn. But in the last one month, we have seen > both SAR and ADRO improve to US$25mn and > US$22mn, respectively. > > > > > > > > > > > ________________________________ > Dari: billy_budiman92 <billybudima...@...> > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Terkirim: Rab, 18 November, 2009 17:58:43 > Judul: [ob] Merril Lynch : BUMI BUY ( TP : 2.700 ) > > BUMI: Broker ML Rekomendasi Buy, PO 2.700 > Broker ML merekomendasikan rating BUY dengan Price Objective (PO) > Rp2.700/saham terkait: > * Kesepakatan Newmont terlalu membingungkan. Who bought what? > Kepemilikan dibagi antara pemerintah daerah dan Multicapital untuk 10% saham > NTT tetap tidak jelas. > Berdasarkan data dari Media, porsi kepemilikan Multicapital yakni Bakrie > Capital, 95% saham > dan sisanya BUMI, 5%. Tetapi, kemarin media lokal melaporkan bahwa pembayaran > sebesar > US $ 391 juta secara keseluruhan dibayar oleh BUMI. > Pada titik tersebut, ML tidak yakin berapa banyak nilai saham BUMI di Newmont > * ML memangkas earning sebanyak 7% di 2010E dan 11% di 2011E, karena adanya > penerbitan utang baru > US$600 juta (US$300 juta dari CS hingga akhir Oktober dan obligasi baru-baru > ini US$300 juta) > * ML memangkas PO nya sebanyak 7% jadi Rp2700, mengimpilkasikan 17x 2010E P/E > * Maruwai belum menjadi milik BUMI. > ML berpandangan bahwa investor tetap memegang saham BUMI untuk mengantisipasi > pembelian Maruwai oleh BUMI, meski selain BUMI, ADRO juga tertarik. Terlebih > ML melihat > ADRO sudah siap dari segi finansial sedangkan BUMI masih harus mencari > pinjaman. > salah satu target lainnya menurut ML adalah 14% saham Newmont dan capex > senilai US$1 miliar > untuk ekspansi tambangnya > * Bullish untuk harga Batubara, fokus pada SAR dan ADRO > * Likuiditas SAR dan ADRO meningkat > YTD, nilai perdagangan BUMI telah capai sekitar $32 juta vs SAR's US$22 juta > dan ADRO US$7 juta. > Namun dalam satu bulan terakhir, nilai perdagangan SAR dan ADRO naik > masing-masing jadi > US $ 25 juta dan US $ 22 juta. > > Ya, masa cuma 75 perak :p, tinggal DB dink yang belum upgrade2 :p > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > Akses email lebih cepat. Yahoo! menyarankan Anda meng-upgrade browser > ke Internet Explorer 8 baru yang dioptimalkan untuk Yahoo! Dapatkan di sini! > http://downloads.yahoo.com/id/internetexplorer >
