entahlah pak boyz, kecuali kita dekat dgn org dalem/insider susah untuk bisa jitu ikut gerakan jangka pendek BUMI. dia bisa drive berita ke atas atau ke bawah. tergantung mana yg mau dijalanin. berita bagus dia siap banyak dalam waktu dekat meski itu semua belum value accretive. dan dia pegang kas gede pula skrg. tapi jangka panjang hasil keuangan gak bisa dibohongin. laporan keuangan BUMI akan kontras memburuk sementara peersnya terus meningkat dan positif.
if u cant understand it, better not to go close around it. kecuali obvious diposisi Murah (Reward long lebih besar dari risk) atau diposisi mahal (reward Short lebih besar dari risk). saya masih tunggu q3. mo lihat kejelasan perjanjian dan kewajiban terkait pinjaman dan arus kas investasi yang sudah digunakan oleh manajemen terkait pinjaman dan dana-dana baru itu. On Tue, Dec 8, 2009 at 7:50 PM, boyz® <m457...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Ane setuju ama kang Ocoy yg SKEPTIC sama BUMI... > > Sekarang kita pake SIMPLE THINKING aja deh, smart moneys yg punya analis2 > top and pake itung2an ngejelimet serta akses informasi yg lebih canggih aja > *belum ada yg berbondong2 mborong* BUMI (check volume BUMI and ticker > reading-nya), ngapain kita mo ngedahuluin mereka? > > kan kalo smart moneys udah ngitung valuasi BUMI pasca ngutang sana sini, > lalu mereka berpikir BUMI merupakan "hidden treasury" yg bakal kinclong > dimasa depan, pasti dari sekarang mereka udah berlomba2 akumulasi. > > Hari ini inflow di BUMI? maybe, but pls check today's volume. Berapa banyak > sih yg di akumulasi si BOZZ dgn volume harian segitu? > > tapi apakah sekarang timing yg cocok buat nge-short BUMI? > yg paling pas mah waktu 3000an, bareng mBah... atau yg terakhir waktu > kemarin2 di 2800an. > Selama belum ada *negative price with high volume*, konyol kalo mau > nge-short. > > Salam, > > > > > On Tue, Dec 8, 2009 at 2:37 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana < > disclosure....@gmail.com> wrote: > >> >> >> I do skeptic with BUMI now that they will likely to post awfully >> declining P & L starts from this Q3 09 - A 09 - Q1 010 - Q2 010 Given their >> bleak bottomline outlook and negative FCF. >> >> But THINK TWICE before u short them coz needless to say ; >> >> 1) The Price Aint Really Too Pricey Now at Current Level. >> 2) they got 2.5 Bio USD in CASH now. Can U OutWeigh Their Bullet? >> 3) they got ammo's of news and stories upcoming, starts from Herald >> Forestry Pemit to Berau and Maruwai Linkage. >> >> shorters got a little comforting reasons though ; all the stories is not >> yet really an assets, more like a "liabilities", herald, gallo, citra palu, >> Zfariat wont add up contributing cash even 2 years after their exploration >> Succeded while they were sucking up cash up till now. while Berau, Maruwai, >> Etc would effectly add value but i doubt it would make the bottomline >> forecast improves. >> >> But Sure U Really wanna challenge 2.5 Bio USD Cash Holders Head-On?!. >> Think Again Dude. >> >> > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
