Test Anything is possible
On Fri, Jan 8, 2010 at 9:50 PM, B_ND <nyaham.d...@gmail.com <mailto:nyaham.d...@gmail.com> > wrote: Bisa jadi PTBA ke-2 nya pak Rei nih!! Salam, On Fri, Jan 8, 2010 at 10:28 PM, <highwaysta...@gmail.com <mailto:highwaysta...@gmail.com> > wrote: Sent from my computer of course! ---------------- From: dani...@aaasecurities.com <mailto:dani...@aaasecurities.com> Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2010 09:37:06 +0000 Subject: Fw: ADRO - The Rise of Envirocoal Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT ---------------- From: "Herman Koeswanto" <herman.koeswa...@aaasecurities.com <mailto:herman.koeswa...@aaasecurities.com> > Date: Fri, 8 Jan 2010 16:18:04 +0700 To: Herman Koeswanto<herman.koeswa...@aaasecurities.com <mailto:herman.koeswa...@aaasecurities.com> > Subject: FW: ADRO - The Rise of Envirocoal Herman Koeswanto - Research Division - PT Andalan Artha Advisindo Sekuritas Artha Graha Building 26th Floor Jl. Jendr. Sudirman Kav 52 - 53 Phone +6221 5152640 ---------------- From: Ciptadana Research [mailto:ciptadanaresea...@ciptadana.com <mailto:ciptadanaresea...@ciptadana.com> ] Sent: Friday, January 08, 2010 2:42 PM Subject: KI : ADRO - The Rise of Envirocoal PT Adaro Energy The Rise of Envirocoal  We are initiating our coverage on PT Adaro Energy (Adaro, JCI code: ADRO) with a BUY recommendation at TP of Rp 2,450/share. Adaro is currently Indonesia’s second largest thermal coal producer, operating the largest single coal mine in Indonesia, and one of the lowest cost coal producer in the world. Last year, the company was able to re-price their legacy contracts, thus, average selling price jumped significantly y-o-y—supporting FY09 performance. While 2009’s performance is driven by price increase, we believe sales volume will drive Adaro’s performance in 2010 and going forward. As power sector’s appetite for Envirocoal is growing, the company is expanding to boost production by 77.8% in five-years to 80Mt. Using DCF valuation with 11.0% WACC and 3.0% growth rate, we come up with a 12-month target price of Rp 2,450/share. Currently trading at Rp 1,840/share, our target price provides a 33.2% upside.  Increasing demand for Envirocoal With only one mine in operation, Adaro’s business model is very simple as they only have one product—i.e. Envirocoal. Envirocoal is one of the cleanest fossil fuels in the world. It has ultra low sulphur, ash and nitrogen contents. Today, the demand for Envirocoal is growing as people’s concern about environmental issues towards coal usage emerged. Envirocoal can be used especially where environmental restrictions are strictly controlled or as blending agents for coals with high ash and sulphur. With the unique qualities of Envirocoal, it become the most environmentally acceptable and cost effective solid fuel available.  Possible winner of BHP Billiton’s coal mine in Maruwai Recent media reported that Adaro has been chosen by BHP Billiton as their strategic partner in running its coal mine in Maruwai, Central Kalimantan. The news has not been confirmed with BHP, however, it is suspected that Adaro is BHP’s main option for technical and strategic reasons as Adaro’s mine location is close Maruwai. Official announcement from BHP is expected in the near future. Acquiring 25% of Maruwai coal mine will be a positive catalyst for the share price.  Target Price: Rp 2,450/share, BUY With 3.5 bn tones of coal resources and 38.5Mt of coal production in 2008, Adaro is the second largest thermal coal producer in Indonesia. Aside from trying to boost production, going forward Adaro is planning to build a mine mouth power plant and an overland conveyor to lower costs. At our target price, Adaro’s P/E 2010 and 2011 is 21.6x and 13.2x, respectively. Currently-at 3.1x P/BV 2010-the company is trading with one of the lowest P/BV compared to its Indonesian peers. Risks to our valuation include the volatility of International coal prices, the ability of the company to obtain high selling price, timely completion of on-going projects and the weather as it affects operational performance. -- Regards, Research Department PT Ciptadana Securities Plaza ASIA Office Park Unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.59 Jakarta 12190 Phone : 62-21 2557 4920 Fax    : 62-21 2557 4900 DISCLAIMER This email may contain privileged and/or confidential Information intended only for the use of the addressee. If not, or you are not the person responsible for delivering it to the person addressed, you may not use any part of it, forward, disclose, copy or deliver this to anyone else. 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