Khusus Tuah Turangga sampai 2012 bikin kantong UNTR tergerus nett profit,,,kalo Power Plant sudah runnning setrumnya baru mantaf Bang Ian
-----Original Message----- From: Irwan Napitupulu Sent: 04-03-2010, 17.29 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] UNTR: Final Result 2010 (resend) Kalau mengacu ke perkiraan EPS 2014 sebesar 2448. Dengan menggunakan tingkat diskonto 10%, dan menggunakan perkiraan dividend bersih setelah pajak katakan 500 perak saja p.a, dan dengan asumsi perilaku harga saham normal2 saja terhadap laba seperti selama ini, maka saya dapat hitungan harga wajar UNTR di 14050. Lebih rendah lagi lebih baik. Dengan kata lain di harga sekarang di 16800 itu akan setara dengan ER (expected return/perkiraan cuan) 5,9% p.a. selama 5 tahun ke depan. FM sih harusnya ngga doyan ya dengan saham beginian, ketimbang di taruh di UNTR yg ER nya hanya 5,9%, mending ditaruh di fixed income yg ER nya bisa sekitar 9-10% p.a. IAN On Thu, Mar 4, 2010 at 3:58 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana < disclosure....@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Gak Bisa Bantu Post Chart dan candle karena bukan teknikalis, jadi bantu > embah model pro-forma dan valuasi aja buat melengkapi supply > attachment investdatanya > > > *UNTR profit and loss (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** > ** ** ** ** ** *Year* *2008* *2009* *2010-F* *2011-F* *2012-F* *2013-F* * > 2014-F* Net sales 27,903,196 29,241,883 35,162,795 > 41,315,501 47,617,005 53,988,202 60,128,775 Cost of sales (22,403,902) > (22,570,824) (26,797,929) (31,937,249) (37,223,229) (42,583,449) > (47,758,462) Gross profit 5,499,294 6,671,059 8,364,866 9,378,252 > 10,393,777 11,404,753 12,370,314 Other operating income 5,542 9,104 9,559 > 10,037 10,539 11,066 11,619 Selling expenses (279,941) (272,315) (264,897) > (257,681) (250,661) (243,833) (237,190) General administration expenses > (1,060,600) (1,230,000) (1,426,457) (1,654,292) (1,918,517) (2,224,944) > (2,580,314) EBITA 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,072 7,476,316 8,235,138 > 8,947,042 9,564,429 Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 EBIT > 4,164,295 5,177,848 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 > Investment > income 68,064 48,996 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 58,530 Net interest > (189,737) (88,768) (27,533) 214,137 571,699 1,095,014 1,728,136 Other > financial items (190,585) 306,162 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 57,789 Net > financial items (312,258) 266,390 88,785 330,456 688,017 1,211,332 > 1,844,454 Earnings before tax 3,852,037 5,444,238 6,771,907 7,806,822 > 8,923,205 10,158,425 11,408,933 Income tax (1,166,512) (1,594,543) > (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) (2,844,345) (3,194,487) Tax/Profit > 30.3% 29.3% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% Group net income 2,685,525 > 3,849,695 4,875,787 5,620,926 6,424,722 7,314,080 8,214,446 Minority > interest (24,693) (32,154) (40,724) (46,948) (53,662) (61,090) (68,610) > *Attributable > net income* 2,660,832 3,817,541 4,835,063 5,573,978 6,371,060 7,252,990 > 8,145,836 Dividend paid (760,429) (1,164,410) (1,450,519) (1,672,193) > (1,911,318) (2,175,897) (2,443,751) Retained earnings 1,900,403 2,653,131 > 3,384,544 3,901,785 4,459,742 5,077,093 5,702,085 Common > stock Weighted average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 Year end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 > 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 Shares outstanding > Weighted > average shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Year > end shares (m) 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 3,326.9 > Earnings > per share (IDR) 800 1,147 1,453 > 1,675 1,915 2,180 2,448 Common stock > dividend (IDR) 229 350 436 > 503 575 654 735 > > *UNTR balance sheet (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** > ** ** ** ** *Year* *2008* *2009* *2010 - F* *2011 - F* *2012 - F* *2013 - > F* *2014 - F* *Fixed assets* Goodwill 0 0 50 > 100 150 200 250 Tangible assets 9,505,248 11,858,017 13,534,219 14,247,133 > 14,140,731 12,444,277 10,304,521 Financial assets 207,318 313,349 404,444 > 452,449 498,371 541,453 578,816 Total fixed assets 9,712,566 12,171,366 > 13,938,713 14,699,682 14,639,252 12,985,930 10,883,586 > *Current > assets* Inventories 5,246,343 3,966,358 4,709,185 5,612,315 > 6,541,217 7,483,165 8,392,567 Trade receivables 3,470,549 4,462,606 > 5,366,197 6,305,162 7,266,835 8,239,144 9,176,257 Other receivables and > other assets 211,264 162,946 195,939 230,224 265,339 300,841 335,059 Cash > and cash equivalents 3,324,942 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 > 14,777,577 21,679,099 Total current assets 12,253,098 11,361,097 > 13,717,061 17,714,324 23,265,776 30,800,727 39,582,982 > Deferred > tax assets 56,247 32,367 50,000 51,500 51,500 51,500 51,500 > Prepaid expenses and deferred charges 825,810 839,998 875,000 875,000 > 875,000 875,000 875,000 *Total assets* 22,847,721 > 24,404,828 28,580,774 33,340,506 38,831,528 44,713,156 51,393,068 > *Equity* Capital stock 831,720 831,720 831,720 > 831,720 831,720 831,720 831,720 Additional paid-in capital 3,781,563 > 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 3,781,563 Reserves > retained from earnings 3,582,375 5,078,710 7,731,841 11,116,385 15,018,170 > 19,477,912 24,555,005 Group net profit 2,660,742 3,817,541 4,835,063 > 5,573,978 6,371,060 7,252,990 8,145,836 Differences & Revaluations 275,207 > 334,176 334,176 334,176 334,176 334,176 334,176 Total equity 11,131,607 > 13,843,710 17,514,363 21,637,822 26,336,689 31,678,361 37,648,300 > *Minorities* 71,198 107,370 148,069 194,986 248,612 309,660 > 378,224 *Provisions* Pensions and similar > commitments 223,196 295,159 323,616 353,176 384,022 416,365 450,453 Other > provisions 17,473 52,690 52,690 52,690 52,690 52,690 52,690 Total > provisions 240,669 347,849 376,306 405,866 436,712 469,055 503,143 > Other liabilities Financial debts 4,864,590 > 3,768,804 2,968,804 2,168,804 1,468,804 468,804 (331,196) Trade payables > 4,448,749 4,264,328 5,062,959 6,033,936 7,032,621 8,045,333 9,023,053 Other > liabilities 845,581 908,918 1,092,956 1,284,199 1,480,067 1,678,102 > 1,868,967 Total other liabilities 10,158,920 8,942,050 9,124,719 9,486,939 > 9,981,492 10,192,238 10,560,825 Deferred tax liabilities > 1,098,787 1,039,367 1,292,834 1,490,411 1,703,541 1,939,359 2,178,095 > Deferred income 146,540 124,482 124,482 124,482 124,482 > 124,482 124,482 *Total equity and liabilities* 22,847,721 > 24,404,828 28,580,773 33,340,506 38,831,528 44,713,156 51,393,068 Net debt > 1,539,648 999,617 Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Operating > capital (excluding goodwill) 13,139,074 15,276,681 17,649,624 19,076,699 > 19,701,433 18,743,992 17,316,383 > > > *UNTR cash flow (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** * > * *Year* *2009* *2010 - F* *2011 - F* *2012 - F* *2013 - F* *2014 - F* > EBIT 6,683,122 7,476,366 8,235,188 8,947,092 9,564,479 > Depreciation > and amortisation 2,818,998 3,479,963 4,096,864 4,684,389 5,125,033 Changes > in pension provisions 8,457 9,560 10,846 12,344 14,088 Changes in other > provisions - - > - - - Changes in net working capital > (696,742) (714,160) (731,136) (739,014) (712,147) Income taxes paid > (1,896,120) (2,185,896) (2,498,483) (2,844,345) (3,194,487) Changes in > deferred tax assets and liabilities 235,834 196,077 213,130 235,817 > 238,736 Changes in prepayments and deferred income (35,002) > - - - - *Cash flow > from operating activities* * * *7,118,547* *8,261,910* *9,326,409* * > 10,296,284* *11,035,702* Capital expenditure (4,500,000) > (4,200,000) (4,000,000) (3,000,000) (3,000,000) *Cash flow from investing > activities* * * *(4,500,000)* *(4,200,000)* *(4,000,000)* *(3,000,000)* * > (3,000,000)* Dividends to UNTR shareholders (1,164,410) > (1,450,519) (1,672,193) (1,911,318) (2,175,897) Dividends to minority > shareholders (25) (31) (36) (41) (47) Equity issued > - - - - > - Equity bought back - - > - - - Change in debt (800,000) > (800,000) (700,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) Net interest paid (2,782) > 241,209 601,186 1,127,029 1,762,808 Investment income 58,530 58,530 > 58,530 58,530 58,530 Other financial items (33,306) 9,784 11,867 14,706 > 20,426 *Cash flow from financing activities* * * *(1,941,994)* * > (1,941,027)* *(1,700,646)* *(1,711,094)* *(1,134,179)* Opening > cash 3,324,942 2,769,187 3,445,740 5,566,623 9,192,386 14,777,577 Change > in cash (555,755) 676,553 2,120,883 3,625,763 5,585,191 6,901,522 > *Closing > cash* * 2,769,187 * *3,445,740* *5,566,623* *9,192,386* *14,777,577* * > 21,679,099* > > > *UNTR DCF/EP valuation (IDR million)* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** > ** ** ** ** ** *Year* * * *2010* *2011* *2012* *2013* *2014* *Terminus* > *WACC* 13.2% Incremental ROCE 33.0% Long term growth > 5.5% *EBIT* *6,683,122* *7,476,366* *8,235,188* *8,947,092* > *9,564,479* Notional taxation on EBITA (1,871,260) (2,093,369) > (2,305,839) (2,505,172) (2,678,040) NOPAT 4,811,862 5,382,998 > 5,929,349 6,441,921 6,886,439 7,265,193 Depreciation & amortisation > 2,818,998 3,479,963 4,096,864 4,684,389 5,125,033 Capital expenditure > (4,500,000) (4,200,000) (4,000,000) (3,000,000) (3,000,000) Change in > working capital (696,742) (714,160) (731,136) (739,014) (712,147) Free > cash flow 2,434,118 3,948,801 5,295,078 7,387,296 8,299,325 6,054,327 > Opening > capital employed 15,276,681 17,654,425 19,088,622 19,722,893 18,777,518 > 17,364,631 Earnings growth 31.4% 11.9% 10.1% 8.6% 6.9% 5.5% Return on > opening capital employed 31.5% 30.5% 31.1% 32.7% 36.7% 33.0% Cost of > capital 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% 13.19% Investment spread 18.3% > 17.3% 17.9% 19.5% 23.5% 19.8% *Economic profit* *2,797,283* *3,054,860* > *3,412,080* *3,841,008* *4,410,195* *4,975,270* DCF valuation > + PV 5 year cash flow 17,852,610 29.6% + PV terminal value > 42,394,073 70.4% = Enterprise value 60,246,682 100.0% +Financial > assets 313,349 -Minority interests (107,370) -Pension > provisions (295,159) - Net debt (999,617) = Equity value > 59,157,885 Value per share * 17,782 * ** ** ** ** > Economic > profit valuation + Opening balance sheet (excl. financial > assets) 15,276,681 25.4% + PV 5 year economic profit 11,923,041 > 19.8% + PV terminal value (ex incremental investment) 20,308,291 > 33.7% + PV terminal value (incremental investments) 12,738,669 21.1% > = Enterprise value 60,246,682 100.0% +Financial assets 313,349 > -Minority interests (107,370) -Pension provisions (295,159) - > Net debt (999,617) = Equity value 59,157,885 Value per share > * 17,782 * > > *UNTR cost of capital* Risk free rate 9.30% Equity risk > premium 4.00% Beta 1.00 Cost of equity 13.3% Risk free rate > 9.00% Debt premium 1.50% Gross cost of debt 10.50% Tax rate 28.00% Net > cost of debt 7.56% Share price 15,000.00 Shares issued (m) 3,327 > Market capitalisation 49,903,200 98.0% Net debt (book) 999,617 2.0% > Enterprise > value 50,902,817 100.0% *WACC* 13.19% UNTR unleveraged cost > of equity Risk free rate 9.00% Equity risk premium 4.00% > Beta 1.00 Cost of equity 13.0% Share price 15,000.00 Shares > issued (m) 3,327 Market capitalisation 49,903,200 98.0% Net debt (book) > 999,617 2.0% Enterprise value 50,902,817 100.0% Market > debt/equity 2.0% Deleveraged Beta 0.98 *Deleveraged cost of equity* > 12.92% > > > > 2010/2/26 jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> > >> >> >> UNTR: Final Result 2010 >> >> Please find attached: >> >> - http://www.investdata.net/QYUNTR.TXT >> >> Note: >> - Menurunnya performance pada akhir tahun nampaknya musiman, >> karena tahun lalu pun polanya sama (Angka Quarterly dibagian bawah) >> >> > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. > - Richard Feynman > > >
