Kalo ngeri melulu kapan belanja nya ntar keburu naik lg ketinggalan kereta deh hehehe..... Kalo turun beli lagi aja, gitu lohhh SB
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device from XL GPRS network -----Original Message----- From: frombatamwithcuan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Wed, 16 Jan 2008 10:22:47 To:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Inilah pilihanku! 8900, beli pak. Beli bertahap, siap-siap nampung lagi dibawah. 2008/1/16 Indra Dharmajaya <[EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> com>: Kang Ocoy, TLKM udah 8950, apa sudah harus dibeli? Ngeri liatnya.... ----- Original Message ---- From: Heryadi < [EMAIL PROTECTED] <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> co.id> To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 7:48:38 AM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Inilah pilihanku! Thanks Kang atas pencerahannya. salam, ----- Original Message ----- From: kang_ocoy_maen_ <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> saham To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 9:28 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Inilah pilihanku! elastisitas antara penggunaan dan tarif telekomunikasi kira2 + - sekitar 0.75-1 which means kalo telkom bisa penetrate market (mungkin ga keliatan tp flexi di daerah2 mulai penetrasi dgn baik)., seharusnya revenue bisa lost 30% dr tariff reduce, tp penggunaan meningkat minimal 20% ditambah penetrasi market share / pengguna baru 10%an minimal TLKM bisa offset efek penurunan tarif.... telekomunikasi termasuk bisnis berkembang pak... okelah tarif turun, kalo telkom bisa manfaatin momentum ini, telkom lah yg mungkin paling bisa survive dibanding kompetitor mengingat cash dy paling banyak dan senjata penetrasi dy paling lengkap... kalo EPS TLKM zero growth aja, TLKM layak dihargain Rp 12000an... keyakinannya adalah siapa yg yakin revenue tlkm bakal turun jauh, atau siapa yg sebaliknya malah yakin revenue telkom tetep bisa nahan walau ada penurunan tariff... the thing is, se-salah2nya intrinsic value perkiraan saya (Rp 12700an pada kondisi zero growth over capital), asalkan market penetration dy bisa tetep ngimbangin.. . Margin Of Safety of 30% bisa jadi "bargain deal" buat TLKM... dibawah 9000 saya heavy buy pak... contrary to what elaine says... if the recession do really come and hit us.., saya malah cari saham kaya telkom, bisnisnya domestic consumption based, kas yg banyak ditangan, peluang pertumbuhan jangka panjang ada... dan tentu saja, harga dibawah 9000 bisa jadi tawaran yg manis banget... itu aja pak... (perhatiin aja tengah tahun laporan pertama 2008 Telkom, if there's no steep declining on revenue and earning, NO NEED TO WORRY... Bahkan sekarang pun TLKM masih lebih murah dr BTEL,FREN DAN EXCL...) --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> , "Heryadi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED] > wrote: > > Kang ocoy dengan penurunan tarif pulsa telp,seberapa besar dampaknya > terhadap revenue saham TLKM?Tolong dong kang dibantu hitung-hitungannya. > Thanks > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: kang_ocoy_maen_ saham > To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com > <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> > Sent: Friday, January 11, 2008 11:20 AM > Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Inilah pilihanku! > > > > kalo mid-term sih pilih yg "earning growthnya nyata dan solid", > ato yg "valuasinya murah"... > > BBRI,SMGR,BLTA, TLKM... Kalo kuda hitamnya (spekulatifnya) saya jg suka > MEDC, hehe rasio dan eps jelek.. tp kartu as simpenanya banyak... > Senoro apalagi tuh... tp masih lama jg.. tp diluar senoro katalis medc > tahun 2008 banyak yg bakal implied soalnya... kalo plantation buat > mid-term saya unsp... > > --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com > <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> , "Dean Earwicker" > <dean.earwicker@ > wrote: > > > > Thanks Kang. > > > > 500 bio kecil? wah wah wah kelas berat nih si Akang. :) Wew.. > > > > Anyway, Kang, boleh banget tuh disharing, kalau untuk *hold mid > term*, let's > > say 6-12 mo, kira-kira Kang Ocoy pilih apa? Bebas pick nya. > > Mid term pick saya adalah: BUMI TINS MEDC LSIP, target terserah > market aja. > > > > Note: Embah = jsx-consultant = moderator = penggemar JLo. Hehe.. > > > > Thanks a lot, Kang Ocoy. Ditunggu replynya.... > > > > Regards, > > DE > > > > On Jan 11, 2008 10:33 AM, kang_ocoy_maen_ saham < > > kang_ocoy_maen_ saham@> wrote: > > > > > im not a leader nor a big player big bro dean, apa sih arti 500 > bio... > > > disini perseorangan yg maennya trilyunan lebih banyak, lagipula stance > > > saya defensif, nunggu... baru gerak kalo udah masuk "margin of > > > safety"... tp kalo ikutan milih boleh deh... > > > > > > Cuman Boleh Satu ya Dean, dua ga boleh ya hehe??.. tp lock-up 5 tahun > > > ya... > > > > > > a. - AALI, strongest cashflow.. relatively fair-valued. .. dengan > > > cashflow sebanyak itu... tarohlah 2 tahun ini hard-time in economy, > > > plenty of cashflow bisa jamin dividen dan kelangsungan perusahaan.. . > > > rata2 plantationnya yg sudah tua juga secara sistematis bisa > > > diregenerasi karena jumlah cashflow yg very very sufficient di > tangan... > > > > > > b. - ANTM, jangan tanya kenapa.. soalnya lock-upnya 5 tahun... but i > > > definetely not buying it on current price.. cuman karena rulenya 5 > > > tahun dengan terpaksa ANTM over INCO deh... > > > > > > c. -PTBA, same reason dgn B... 5 tahun lock-up. all growth story is > > > implied. the unlocking factor sudah cashflow generating or atleast > > > have the good visibility degree of revenue recogniton.( railway, > > > newport,power plant, CBM) > > > > > > d. -ELTY, simply because its the best among the list. but i dont like > > > property. > > > > > > e. -BBNI, all we need is a simple and turnaround on the management > > > side.. 5 tahun harusnya jangka waktu yg cukuplah buat dapetin tim > > > manajemen yg bagus dan didukung seluruh karyawan. > > > > > > f. -TLKM, definitely. thos cashpile in hand give the management enough > > > ammo to handle the competition. .. > > > > > > g. -UNVR, the divident yield and the stability. > > > > > > h. -PGAS, for the same reason as everybody else i guess.. haha... > > > > > > note that the above pick is only apply if the game is "pick and lock > > > for 5 years span"... > > > > > > tp kalo permainanya adalah performa setahun ato dua tahun ato malah 6 > > > bulan.., picknya beda jauh sama yg diatas... > > > > > > Mbah,... Mbah apa nih??... > > > > > > ---------------- Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search. <http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=51734/*http://tools.search.yahoo.com/newsearch/category.php?category=shopping> -- From Batam With Cuan + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + + Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
