Ringkasan di bawah pernah saya share juga di mail-list lain. Kalau melihat uraian dari Toni Turner, rasanya nggak usah khawatir bahwa US akan resesi, karena memang sudah di tahap resesi (semua tanda-tandanya sudah terjadi)...-:-)
Pertanyaannya adalah: Kapan akan terjadi landing (baik soft ataupun hard) untuk membentuk base persiapan take-off lagi? Excerpt from "Short-Term Trading in the New Stock Market" by Toni Turner: Cycles - The Wheels of Fortune Business cycle is propelled to a great degree by interest rate. Interest rates equal the cost of borrowing money. We'll start the cycle at the trough, or cycle lows. The trough of a business cycle represents stabilization after a recession; interest rates are low. This low lending rate boosts the economy, and the cycle moves up and into a recovery phase. If economic growth continues, the cycle rises into a middle recovery phase. Along the climb, prices of goods and services may inflate. In order to keep this inflation in check, the Federal Reserve Board raises interest rates to raise borrowing costs. Now companies have to pay more for the use of money, which dampens their earnings and lowers their incentive to borrow. Momentum, however, will push the economic expansion higher and higher, to a point that will represent the peak. Now the Fed will raise interest rates one too many times. The expansion stops cold in its tracks. The cost of borrowing money is too expensive. Hiring slows, and layoffs begin. The economy rolls over and tumbles into a recession. The Fed winces and lowers interest rates to deflect a recession. The effects of discounted interest rates, however, take time to flow through industry veins. With crimped earnings, mounting inventories, and employee cut-backs, business owners are in no mood to take advantage of cheapening money. The downward spiral continues, and the recession deepens. The Fed continues to lower rates, maybe two, three, or four times. Everyone prays for a 'soft landing'. At some point the economy does land - softly or not (think 'valley or trough'). Finally, the reduced-rate environment soothes the weary recession. The now lean-and-mean companies start to eke out positive earnings, and signs of renewed hiring and manufacturing appear. Money is cheap, and lenders notice fresh lines of borrowers at their doors. And, yes, you guessed it - the cycle starts over again. _____ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mudy Situmorang Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2008 6:01 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Hard rebound Jumat atau Senin? RE: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Rebound Kata bapak dosen, yang dikhawatirkan resesi US. Definisi resesi 2 kuartal GDP minus. Hitungan Lehman (http://www.reuters. <http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWEN296120071213> com/article/idUSWEN296120071213) GDP 2007Q4 US naik 0,4%, setidaknya belum minus. Jadi belum terjadi resesi, masih slowdown. Kalau resesi terjadi, GDP 2008Q1 US minus, dampaknya baru terasa di Indonesia 2008Q2. Resesi US mustinya pertama memukul distribusi/retail, kemudan manufactur. Dampak di Indonesia mustinya pertama memukul manufaktur, kemudian baru merembet ke distribusi/retail. Jadi nampaknya crash Januari 2008 bukan karena resesi melainkan karena kekhawatiran resesi. Kalau crash bukan karena resesi, akan recover paling lama 1 bulan. Crash Agustus 2007 recover dalam 2 minggu. Crash Jan 2008 (moga-moga) tidak sedalam Agustus 2007 saat dampak SPM baru disadari. Jadi bullish masih dapat diharapkan berlanjut walau tidak segalak dulu dan IHSG (moga-moga) kembali keatas 2800. Kemarin yang dikhawatirkan crash berhenti Rabu atau berlanjut sampai Jumat. Ternyata Kamis sudah soft rebound. Jadi tebakan selanjutnya adalah hard rebound Jumat besok atau Senin 21/1. Tentu saja masih akan ada bottom lagi tapi (moga-moga) tidak sedalam Rabu. Argumen rebound Senin karena biasanya Jumat ada weekend profit taking. Argumen rebound Jumat karena Kamis sudah soft rebound investor takut kehabisan barang murah, korban forced sell pra crash sudah habis Kamis. -----Original Message----- From: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of agoes_htm Sent: 17 Januari 2008 16:08 To: obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Rebound Yup.. sebaiknya beware.. bukan tidak mungkin ini hanya rebound sementara. Soalnya landasan 2300-2400 masih menunggu --- In obrolan-bandar@ <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> yahoogroups.com, "James Arifin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > kalau mau serbu mesti ingat kapan jualannya, jangan sampai kena force > sell phase 2 > > On 1/17/08, Mudy Situmorang <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Serbuu.... > > > > Nikei, Hangseng, Strait Times > 2% > > > > IDX baru 1,3% > > > > > > > > Yang terlambat gak dapet ikan...... > > > > > > > > > > > > > + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + + Yahoo! Groups Links
