makanya saya bilang "SAKIT" pak.. jujur pemaen value kaya saya aja mo muntah liat valuasinya...
gimana lagi??, Kalo Coal tembus $150 dan tahun ini bisa rata2nya diatas $120 dan demandnya solid (likely ga akan soften years to come)... yah, APA BOLEH BUAT - t*hi kambing bulat-bulat... kekekekekk.. BUMI soalnya punya harga jual batu bara di level 70-80% harga spot.. dan jualannya spot pula.. PTBA ga segitu harga jualnya (45-55% aja) en jualannya kontrak pula.. tp PTBA reservenya amit2 banyaknya.. dan yg lowgrade pun kalo sudah dimonetisasi di pltu yg JV sama china itupun jadi bisa kepake... harga coalnya yg "sakit" pak... saya bisa apa lagi? input di financial model kalo input asumsi selling pricenya di segitu hasilnya ya begitu... makanya mo tanya nih?? angka coal segini absurd gak nih kira2??,... edan jg sihh... value-player kaya saya pasti geleng-geleng pas liat hasil valuasinya., tp mo gimana lagi?? thermal coalnya yg diatas $100 kok... tp kok saya baru ngeh skrg yah.. analis primitf nasibnya begini nih.. ketinggalan.. kacaww... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Boy YR" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > jadi menurut akang ocoy, valuasi BUMI bisa 11rb. > > pantesan, ane sempat bengong waktu CC borong BUMI ratusan ribu lot. > ane pikir, itu borong diharga segitu (7rb-an), punya target jualan > diharga berapa? > gak mungkin kan beli ratusan ribu lot, kalo cuma mengharapkan > keuntungan bebrapa poin / persen. > > BTW, itu target 11rb karena neng feli punya BUMI? kalo neng feli gak > punya BUMI, valuasinya masih segitu gak? > hehehe ... sorry joking. > > rgds, > > > > On 2/18/08, kang_ocoy_maen_saham <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > kekekek.. jd malu belon punya bloomberg.. kaya maen pake handicap aja > > jadinya.. maklum aja, DP mah emang M*dit!... kikikikikikikkkk... > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Boy YR" <boyizar@> wrote: > > > > > > oke.. oke .. > > > nanti saya pasangin bloomberg. > > > > > > :D > > > > > > > > > > > > On 2/18/08, kang_ocoy_maen_saham <kang_ocoy_maen_saham@> wrote: > > > > coal eMANG eDAN,... > > > > > > > > i admit it, i had it wrong for being too conservative on energy's > > > > price... i might change my coal's counter EPS Forecast.. > > > > > > > > Tembus $150 terpaksa semua asumsi direvisi, sensitivitas EPS > > Forecast > > > > perusahaan coal mesti naik minimal 100%.., in some cases yg > > > > batubaranya kualitas eksport malah bisa sampe 200%an... > > > > > > > > awal 07 harga coal di $50an per Ton, desember akhir masih di > > $100an... > > > > > > > > tadi malam aja sempat $139 > > > > > > > > FYI harga rata2 selling price coalnya emiten di pasar kita tuh > > paling > > > > tinggi BUMI (rata2nya berkisar 70-80% harga di pasar > > internasional), > > > > sementara PTBA sekitar 45-60%an harga di pasar internasional... > > > > > > > > say untuk tahun ini harga rata2 coal di level $125 aja, > > > > > > > > dengan asumsi selling price BUMI di $96, trus 2008 produksinya 75 > > > > juta Ton. COGS per tonnya $30, maka revenuenya, COGS en gross > > > > marginnya jadi $7.2 Billion, $2.25billion, en 69%. > > > > > > > > trus operating expensenya rata2 4% dr revenue jd skitar $360 > > > > million.. operating profitnya jadi $4.59 bILLION. > > > > > > > > Interest expense adalah sedikit buat bayar utang yg tinggal > > sekiprit > > > > (YG PAKE COUPON, YG CONVERTIBLE KAN GA PAKE KUPON) kira2 aja > > paling > > > > $50 million-an... > > > > > > > > net profit before taxesnya jadi $4 Billion, > > > > dikurangin provisi tax 30% jd $ 2.8 Billion... > > > > dikurangin minority interest jatahnya TATA (30%) jadi $1.96 Bio > > > > > > > > issued shares 19.4 Bio > > > > > > > > Earning per share BUMI2008 jadi $0.101 > > > > > > > > > > > > Darn EPS di level $1.01 ini tadinya adalah perkiraan di tahun 2010 > > > > andai Coalnya bergerak normal... gile bener coal naeknya... > > > > > > > > itu BUMI.. > > > > > > > > > > > > sama PTBA juga gitu naek minimal 1.5 kali lipat dr EPS Forecast > > > > lama., kalo railway bisa eksekusi sebelum 2008 abis malah bisa > > diatas > > > > itu... ancer2nya ntar kalo EPS 2007 keluar dikaliin 2 - 2.5 aja > > > > minimal, likely EPS 2008 bakal di level segitu.. > > > > > > > > Coal januari 2007 $55 -> Coal Januari 2008 $100 > > > > > > > > > > > > Sick!!... economic slowdown huh??... cihh definitely not from the > > > > energy consumption side... > > > > > > > > darn, ketinggalan terus... not seeing that comin... > > > > > > > > udah waktunya sayah minta pasangin Bloomberg ke bos saya... bisa > > > > ketinggalan terus kalo kaya gini.., Darn... > > > > > > > > > > > > asem... > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "sulistyo_winarto" > > > > <sulistyo_winarto@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Dear all, kagak ngomporin ya... Thanks > > > > > > > > > > di KONTAN juga ada.. > > > > > > > > > > BUMI, PTBA, ITMG, ANTM, UNTR, AALI, TINS dsb..... (yang rally > > lama, > > > > > istirahat dulu lah) > > > > > > > > > > Coal supply cuts mount as Rio declares force majeure > > > > > > > > > > Reuters - Friday, February 15 > > > > > > > > > > Prices of thermal coal, used in power generation and the > > > > manufacturing > > > > > of cement, have also vaulted in recent weeks, due to supply > > troubles > > > > > from Australia and China. (Reporting by Fayen Wong; Editing by > > James > > > > > Thornhill and Louise Heavens) - SYDNEY, Feb 15 - Rio Tinto Ltd > > on > > > > Friday > > > > > declared force majeure at a northern Queensland coal mine after > > > > heavy > > > > > rains, the sixth miner in Australia to default on coal shipments > > > > this > > > > > year. > > > > > > > > > > Rio's force majeure at its 4.5 million tonnes a year Hail Creek > > > > coking > > > > > coal mine could put further upward pressure on spot prices, > > which > > > > have > > > > > already jumped over 80 percent to more than $270 a tonne since > > the > > > > start > > > > > of the year. > > > > > > > > > > "A confluence of disruptions with three of the top five > > exporters > > > > around > > > > > the world having problems has resulted in record prices which > > are > > > > > unlikely to moderate," said a Sydney-based coal analyst. He > > > > declined to > > > > > be unidentified because he was not authorised to speak to the > > media > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > + + > > > > + + + + + > > > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > > > + + + + + > > > > + + > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > + + > > + + + + + > > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > > + + + + + > > + + > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > >
