watch out for the next fed cut rate, the market requests for 75 basis points, in my opinion, will only 25.
from that i think the beginning of roller coaster part II. just my 2 cents only :p On Feb 19, 2008 8:44 PM, Bettina Tan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > From here until March, the markets are predicting that the current fed > rate of 3.5% will be reduced at the very least by 50 basis points, or to > 3% on next FOMC meeting on March 18, 2008. Remember that the starting > interest rate and predictions will change depending on what happens from > here until the start of March, but it gives a decent idea of where the > markets think interest rates are heading. > > Inflationary pressure because of increase in crude oil will stoke > Indonesian inflation which recorded at 7.36% in January 2008. High > inflation could mean end of Bank Indonesia's rate cut cycle, now at 8%. This > big rate differential of 4.5% still attracts fund inflows to Indonesia and > keep IDR attractive at current level of 9100-9200 per US$. > > From the stock exchange view, IDX has improved significantly from 2250 > level to 2700 level yesterday, an increase of about 450 point or 20% in one > month period. > > Where do we go from here? After a significant increase we see IDX is > waiting for the release of audited company financial statements for 2007 as > well as next FOMC meeting in March 18 and Indonesia statistic release for > February 2008. Currently we see IDX will trading between 2650-2710 level > with the next support and resistance at 2,600/2450 and 2775/3000 > respectively. > > Please comment. > >
