Bukannya FedRate memang sudah 3% per-30/01/08 ? Apa maksudnya jadi 2.5% per 18/03/08 kali ya. ----- Original Message ----- From: Bettina Tan To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2008 11:44 AM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Where do we go from here?
From here until March, the markets are predicting that the current fed rate of 3.5% will be reduced at the very least by 50 basis points, or to 3% on next FOMC meeting on March 18, 2008. Remember that the starting interest rate and predictions will change depending on what happens from here until the start of March, but it gives a decent idea of where the markets think interest rates are heading. Inflationary pressure because of increase in crude oil will stoke Indonesian inflation which recorded at 7.36% in January 2008. High inflation could mean end of Bank Indonesia's rate cut cycle, now at 8%. This big rate differential of 4.5% still attracts fund inflows to Indonesia and keep IDR attractive at current level of 9100-9200 per US$. From the stock exchange view, IDX has improved significantly from 2250 level to 2700 level yesterday, an increase of about 450 point or 20% in one month period. Where do we go from here? After a significant increase we see IDX is waiting for the release of audited company financial statements for 2007 as well as next FOMC meeting in March 18 and Indonesia statistic release for February 2008. Currently we see IDX will trading between 2650-2710 level with the next support and resistance at 2,600/2450 and 2775/3000 respectively. Please comment.
