Hallo, Pak Ramon. Seperti yang pernah saya sampaikan sebelumnya, kami selalu tracking setiap berita tentang ML, karena kami punya porsi investasi di produk CDO-nya ML dalam jumlah cukup besar.
CEO Merrill, pada bulan Januari tahun 2008 ini, menyatakan: Merrill's Thain, on the other hand, was more candid on his conference call, pointing out that he assumes that the value of a large chunk of the company's $11.5 billion writedown for CDOs and sub-prime securities won't come back. "I don't think we're going to get much back on these things," Thain said. "I don't think it's just like an illiquid market where liquidity comes back and you get back these losses." http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/news/companies/cdos_pricing.fortune/index.htm Lagipula, kalau nilai aset CDO nya bakal kembali, ngapain dijual sama Merrill Lynch, tiga hari yang lalu? http://www.ml.com/index.asp?id=7695_7696_8149_88278_101366_103431 Salam, Rully ----- Original Message ----- From: Ajo Ramon To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Thursday, July 31, 2008 9:18 AM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Bull at the Gate Friends, keliatannya kita sekarang sudah memasuki period Late Contraction di dalam Economic Cycle. Period ini ditandai oleh market bottom, dimana harga2 commodities pada anjlok, bonds up, financials and consumer cyclicals up. Dow masih di down trend channel dengan upper channel ada di kisaran 12,500, so masih dalam tahapan swing rally, dan untuk mengetahui apakah rally berubah bull kita masih perlu memonitor apakah sektor perumahan disana mulai recover. Selama tanda2 itu belum keliatan, maka recovery masih akan lama. Bear in mind, di kantong para big FM disana -dari Citi, JPM, Merrill, etc. - lies a gigantic provision for asset write-down, hundreds of billion dollars. Artinya, kalau ada tanda2 reversal di economic cycle, sektor perumahan recover, maka provision sebesar mammoth ini akan di WRITE BACK, and the BULL will be coming. Bagi market kita, suka atau tidak suka the last hurdle adalah Pemilu April 2009. Don't expect index akan new high sebelum pemilu selesai, jadi in between kita maseh BOW-SOS But, begitu selesai dan the new leader is elected,,,(jangan salah pilih leader ya, ntar kasus kita bisa kayak Zimbabwe lho). BTW, bagi saya oil story is OVER, kalau ada beberapa rebound, itu cuman buat FM bersih-bersih barang. Oil won't go any further. Let's discuss!
