You are right that it will not be easy to replace the lost exports.
US GDP is almost USD14trillion. China GDP is not even USD4trillion. Simple calculation shows that China needs to import about USD1 trillion to account for drop in US demand (assuming US current a/c deficit falls from 5% of GDP to 0% of GDP due to recession) that's 25% of China GDP. The math does not look favourable and I haven't added Europe and Japan Be braced for hard times. Indonesia will be relatively safer because we are not major exporter of manufactured products. BTW, Singapore is already in recession. (from an SG friend)
