http://www.stratfor.biz/Story.neo?storyId=241644
Saudi Arabia Bombings: New Direction for Al Qaeda?
December 29, 2004 2000 GMT
Summary
At least two major explosions shook the Saudi capital of Riyadh on
Dec. 29, the location of the blasts suggesting that the targets were
not Westerners but the al Saud regime itself. If this is the case,
then al Qaeda jihadists in the kingdom have activated a major shift in
their operations -- in keeping with threats announced by Osama bin
Laden in his Dec. 16 message.
Analysis
Two separate bombs exploded near the Saudi Ministry of Interior (MOI)
building in Riyadh on Dec. 29, and at least one militant reportedly
was killed and two were arrested.
Although the facts are unclear at this point -- gunbattles continue to
rage in the vicinity -- Saudi diplomatic sources have told Stratfor
that Islamist militants launched a coordinated attack against the MOI
building. The attackers, according to these sources, apparently
planned to blast the MOI building with two suicide car bombs, aiming
to collapse the structure, which is in the form of an upside-down pyramid.
However, the sources said that Saudi government security forces
managed to intercept some of the militants before they reached the
ministry. During the firefight, the drivers of the car bombs detonated
their vehicles as security forces began to surround them.
The sources said that several teams of attackers approached the MOI
building armed with small arms, and ambushed the security forces
there. Currently, the Saudi sources said, Saudi forces are attempting
to encircle the area in the effort to eliminate as many attackers as
possible. However, according to the sources, the attackers do not
appear to be retreating, but are attempting to break through into the
MOI building.
The fact that the blasts occurred near the MOI building -- which is
close to other government buildings, including the Ministry of Defense
and Air Aviation, the Ministry of Communication, and Riyadh Palace --
suggests that the attack most likely was intended against the regime
and not against a Western target.
If this is the case, then this represents a massive operational shift
on the part of al Qaeda, less than two weeks after al Qaeda chief
Osama bin Laden threatened to stage attacks against the al Saud regime
unless it stepped down.
Other than the attack against the Saudi special forces
counterterrorism agency in April by a group calling itself the
Brigades of the Two Holy Mosques, the al Qaeda Organization in the
Arabian Peninsula (the jihadist network's chapter in the kingdom) has
refrained from attacking the regime directly.
That the attack took place after hours, at 8:35 p.m. local time,
indicates that the jihadists continue to be cautious about causing
Muslim casualties and that they designed this attack as a warning shot
to show that al Qaeda can make good on its threat -- and relatively
quickly.
In any case, al Qaeda has shifted gears in Saudi Arabia by going after
the al Saud regime directly. This does not mean that the network will
not attack Western targets. Instead, it has upped the ante.
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