http://www.stratfor.biz/Story.neo?storyId=241592
Israel: Hamas' Growing Political Power
December 28, 2004 2011 GMT
Summary
Hamas garnered a significant 35.6 percent of the vote -- and won in
areas previously thought to be Fatah strongholds -- in the first round
of Palestinian municipal elections. Although Palestine Liberation
Organization leader Mahmoud Abbas does not face a Hamas rival in the
Jan. 9 presidential election, the militant Islamist group has
underminded Fatah's confidence. Hamas will take the pragmatic approach
and build on its popularity among the Palestinians to win local
elections until the organization is able to effectively counter the
Palestinian National Authority.
Analysis
In the first local elections since 1976, the militant Islamist group
Hamas has made an impressive entrance onto the political scene.
According to preliminary results from the 26 West Bank polling places,
Fatah won 44.4 percent of the vote while Hamas garnered 35.6 percent
of the 144,000 votes cast in the Dec. 23 election, which saw an 81
percent voter turnout. The second phase of the elections will take
place Jan. 27 in 10 towns in the Gaza Strip, an area where Hamas does
its most successful recruiting and is expected to win a considerable
number of votes.
The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) led by Mahmoud Abbas --
the favored candidate and likely winner of the Jan. 9 elections for
president of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) -- has reason to
feel unnerved by the election results. Although Hamas has boycotted
the presidential elections, the group is acquiring political
legitimacy and has a significant number of supporters in the
Palestinian territories. Abbas has shown himself to be a credible
political actor in the eyes of the West through his plans to advance
the Palestinian cause through diplomacy and to end the armed intifada
led by Hamas and other militant Islamist groups. However, the results
show that the PNA cannot afford to ignore Hamas' constituency, which
displays a profound mistrust of the West and voted with an aim to end
the Israeli occupation.
Hamas' success in the local elections does not necessarily signify
that an increasing number of Palestinians favor the group's violent
methods -- suicide bombers and other attacks against Israelis -- to
advance their cause. In fact, recent studies indicate a significant
drop in the support of suicide bombing among Palestinians. Hamas
derives its popularity from its Islamist message and from the
Palestinians' increasing dissatisfaction with a PNA that has been
deemed corrupt and has thus far failed to provide adequate living
conditions for Palestinians living in the occupied territories. The
social work program of Hamas was designed to buy sympathy from
impoverished Palestinians through propaganda and aid given to
hospitals, schools, orphanages, summer camps, mosques and victimized
families. In the local elections, many Palestinians voted for the
party that would meet their immediate needs of building a medical
center or a school for their children. Hamas has effectively
translated the needs of impoverished Palestinians into legitimate votes.
Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah has exemplified the concept of
utilizing social work programs to garner political support. By
operating an extensive network of social programs, Hezbollah earned
the trust of Lebanese voters and currently holds seats in the Lebanese
Parliament. Like Hezbollah, Hamas' instrumental objective is to
establish a sovereign Islamic state through a democratic process, and
win its struggle against the Israelis in the occupied territories
through any means necessary -- armed or otherwise.
The popularity of Hamas is not a new phenomenon. The movement is a
largely representative group with more than 1,000 members and a
growing support base of tens of thousands of Palestinians living in
the occupied territories. Furthermore, pro-Hamas candidates defeated
pro-Fatah candidates in student union polls at Birzeit University on a
number of occasions in the late 1990s.
Although the group promotes a radical message of obliterating Israel
and creating an Islamic state, Hamas' political leadership has proven
to behave pragmatically in previous meetings with the PLO/PNA. In
other instances, Hamas' military wing has used its lethal veto of
bombings to hamper negotiations with Israel and undermine the
legitimacy of the PLO/PNA. Given the current political climate and its
prospects of establishing itself as a legitimate political entity,
Hamas does not aim to disrupt further negotiations between the PNA and
Israel.
Abbas, then, is more concerned about Hamas' growing public support --
which can undermine the people's support for Fatah -- than about its
power to disrupt the peace process. As of result, Abbas will be caught
between the West's petition to end the armed intifada and Hamas'
demands for concrete concessions. In addition, Israel will be careful
to target militant Hamas members, but will continue to be open to
negotiations with Hamas' political branch in recognition of the
group's legitimate power.
.
Given the shakeup of the Palestinian leadership since the recent death
of PNA President Yasser Arafat, Hamas is playing its cards carefully
in order to secure prominent representation within the Palestinian
ruling elite, simultaneously advancing the group's goals. Hamas'
stated reason for boycotting the presidential elections is that the
elections emanate from the 1993 Oslo Accords. In fact, it
strategically decided not to participate because the group knows it
will not win and does not wish to sacrifice its popular image.
With the majority of its leaders assassinated by Israeli troops or
operating outside of the occupied territories, Hamas does not possess
a leader with the stature and international recognition of Abbas. The
group needs Abbas in power at the top while it employs its de facto
power and gradually builds its political base. In a Dec. 21 Al Arabiya
interview, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh described the group's proposal
to join the PLO once the institutions are reorganized to include a
leading Hamas representative. Once Hamas emerges fully as a
representative body and gains considerable influence among the ruling
elite, it will be in the position to openly oppose the PNA/PLO
leadership. Its next move will be to increase its political
representation in the Palestinian Legislative Council; elections are
set for May 2005.
Hamas undoubtedly values legitimacy and will not sacrifice a political
future as negotiations toward a Palestinian state continue. As the
election results demonstrate, Hamas wields influence over its
constituency -- and will not be underestimated.
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