"The attacks have been particularly noteworthy for their use of
suicide bombers. Some have struck in waves, with one explosive-laden
car following the next in an effort to maximize casualties. That sort
of attack has been a hallmark of al Qaeda and a regular occurrence in
Iraq. But in Afghanistan, suicide attacks of any kind have been
relatively rare, despite a quarter-century of warfare.

Attackers have also shown a growing appetite for strikes in cities,
particularly Kabul, setting residents' nerves on edge and leading them
to take new security precautions at work, home and social events."

During the U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Taliban reported that al-Qaeda
had advised them that their stipend would be reduced from $3M/month to
$1M/month and two thirds of the al-Qaeda forces supporting the Taliban
would go to Iraq.  Now it appears that some of those al-Qaeda (and
perhaps Taliban who went for training with them to Iraq) are back and
educating local Taliban forces in the insurgency techniques perfected
in Iraq.  The results will probably be a rising U.S./U.N./Kabul forces
casualty list.  Iraqi trained al Qaeda may have indeed become an
exportable item.

David Bier

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/27/AR2005112700831_pf.html

Afghans Confront Surge in Violence

Foreign Support Seen Behind Attacks That Mimic Those in Iraq

By Griff Witte
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, November 28, 2005; A01

KABUL, Afghanistan, Nov. 27 -- An onslaught of grisly and
sophisticated attacks since parliamentary elections in September has
left Afghan and international officials concerned that Taliban
guerrillas are obtaining support from abroad to carry out strikes that
increasingly mimic insurgent tactics in Iraq.

The recent attacks -- including at least nine suicide bombings -- have
shown unusual levels of coordination, technological knowledge and
blood lust, according to officials. Although military forces and
facilities have been the most common targets, religious leaders,
judges, police officers and foreign reconstruction workers have also
fallen prey to the violence.

The success of the September vote, which was relatively peaceful
despite Taliban threats of sabotage, initially raised hopes that the
insurgency was losing strength. But after two of the bloodiest months
since U.S. forces entered Kabul in 2001, officials now say the Taliban
might have been using that time to marshal foreign support and plot
new ways to undermine the Western-backed government.

The attacks have been particularly noteworthy for their use of suicide
bombers. Some have struck in waves, with one explosive-laden car
following the next in an effort to maximize casualties. That sort of
attack has been a hallmark of al Qaeda and a regular occurrence in
Iraq. But in Afghanistan, suicide attacks of any kind have been
relatively rare, despite a quarter-century of warfare.

Attackers have also shown a growing appetite for strikes in cities,
particularly Kabul, setting residents' nerves on edge and leading them
to take new security precautions at work, home and social events.

At a wedding Saturday, armed Afghan police officers meticulously
searched guests before they were allowed to enter -- a practice
unknown here until recent months. "Maybe somebody will bring a bomb
and explode it at the wedding," said Nasrullah, a guest in his fifties
who, like many Afghans, uses only one name. "It used to be that we
could trust people. But right now, we cannot trust."

Col. Jim Yonts, spokesman for the U.S. military in Afghanistan, said
the Taliban is resorting to suicide attacks and remote-controlled
bombings in urban areas "out of desperation" as it continues to lose
ground -- and men -- to international forces in the mountains and
other rural areas. "They only lose one person in a suicide attack, not
10 or 15," as they would in battle, he said.

But Yonts acknowledged "grave concern" among U.S. officials over the
idea that the Taliban might be taking a page from Iraqi insurgents'
playbook by attacking with explosives in cities.

Afghan officials said the recent attacks demonstrate that the Taliban
fighters are continuing to receive considerable outside assistance,
such as advanced explosives and computerized timing devices that are
being used to build more devastating bombs.

"There has been . . . more money and more weapons flowing into their
hands in recent months," Defense Minister Rahim Wardak said in a
recent interview with the Associated Press. "We see similarities
between the type of attacks here and in Iraq."

In the past two weeks, Afghanistan has experienced near-daily attacks.
Among the incidents:

Eight civilians and a German soldier were killed when two cars -- one
coming minutes after the other -- plowed into crowds in Kabul.
Soldiers thwarted a suspected third attack when they shot and killed
the driver of a car speeding toward the scene.

An Indian truck driver was taken hostage while working on a road
reconstruction project in Nimruz province in southern Afghanistan. The
Taliban later asserted it had killed him when a deadline passed for
the worker's company to agree to abandon its operations in
Afghanistan. Villagers found his nearly decapitated body the following
day.

Two U.S. soldiers were killed by separate roadside bombs, bringing the
number of American troops killed in Afghanistan this year close to 90
-- double the total in 2004. A Portuguese soldier and a Swedish
soldier were also killed in bombings.

Insurgents burned down a police headquarters in eastern Afghanistan
and took five Afghan officers hostage. Dozens more Afghans across the
country were killed by bombs planted in homes, or in suicide attacks
and ambushes.

The level of violence in Afghanistan is still nowhere near that in
Iraq. The insurgency here is generally considered to have far less
public support and to be less capable of pulling off attacks that
cause mass casualties. Reconstruction projects are ongoing in most
parts of the country, and Westerners can move freely in many areas
with little fear of violence.

"Compared to Iraq, where the suicide bomber is such a cheap commodity
they could throw them at almost any target, that's not where we are
here," said U.S. Ambassador Ronald Neumann, noting that the bombers
have been a mix of Afghans and foreigners.

Neumann said he did not believe the stepped-up attacks were a sign of
widening Taliban support, but rather represented "a change in tactics
and in targets, which makes the violence more evident."

But the increased violence has added another obstacle to the country's
reconstruction effort, still struggling nearly four years after the
overthrow of Taliban rule and the conference of international
officials and Afghan leaders in Bonn that charted Afghanistan's
democratization process.

"We've seen a deterioration in the security situation. And that's
something that all of us who work here are worried about," said Adrian
Edwards, the Kabul-based U.N. spokesman. "I don't think any of us [at
Bonn] would have expected that this kind of security environment is
something we would be faced with four years down the road," he said.

Gen. Zaher Azimi, spokesman for the Afghan Defense Ministry, said he
believes one reason the Taliban has become especially active is that
the road map to democracy outlined in Bonn is nearly complete, with
the new parliament set to convene in December. "That makes the enemies
of Afghanistan upset," he said.

The enemies of Afghanistan, according to government officials, include
not just the Taliban, but also militant Islamic groups worldwide --
especially al Qaeda -- that have had a reciprocal relationship with
the Taliban for the past decade. Taliban authorities used foreign
financial and military support in the 1990s to defeat their domestic
opponents; in turn, international terrorists, Osama bin Laden among
them, received sanctuary here.

The recent spate of urban violence has alarmed Afghans, even after
years of exposure to civil strife and warfare.

"This is the worst security that we've had," said Abdul Karim, 26, who
drives a construction crane and used to work at a job site on the road
from Kabul to Jalalabad. He has refused to return to the site since
nine people were killed in an attack there two weeks ago. "I'm too
worried about suicide bombers," he said.

Nafisa Faqirzada, a 43-year-old high school teacher, said she believes
the suicide attacks are the work of foreigners who follow the
teachings of bin Laden, because "Afghans know that a suicide attack is
forbidden in Islam."

Faqirzada said she wants U.S. soldiers to stay in Afghanistan and help
keep the peace, but she also blames them -- both for failing to catch
bin Laden and for exposing her to risk through their presence. "The
suicide bombers won't do anything to me because I'm a common woman,"
she said. "But if I see the American military, I worry because maybe
someone will try to blow them up, and I will get hurt."

But other Kabul residents said they had other, more immediate
concerns. Abdul Rauf, 41, said he had heard about the recent suicide
bombings, but was far more worried about how he would buy firewood and
food for his six children this winter on the $120 a month he makes
repairing shoes.

"What will I do with security if I don't have food to eat, and don't
have work to do?" Rauf said.





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