http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200703/NAT2007032 3a.html Bird Flu 'Could Kill Millions, Cripple US Economy' By Monisha Bansal CNSNews.com Staff Writer March 23, 2007
(CNSNews.com) - More than one in every four Americans could fall ill, half that number need care, and two million die in a bird flu pandemic that would also cripple the U.S. economy, a healthcare advocacy group warned Thursday, although other policy experts were more cautious in their prognoses. "Pandemic flu outbreaks are inevitable," Jeffrey Levi, executive director of Truth for America's Health, said during a conference call briefing, urging state and federal governments to beef up preparedness measures. "They happen three to four times a century. We haven't had one since 1968 so many experts feel we are currently overdue for the next one." Levi reiterated that the flu strain of greatest current concern is the H5N1 virus, the highly pathogenic strain of avian flu. Since December 2003, more than 160 people in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Turkey, Egypt and Nigeria - more than 50 percent of those who fell ill - have died from the H5N1 virus, despite the culling of millions of ducks and chickens in an attempt to stop the spread. Cases of the virus in birds have also been reported across Europe. Up to now, humans who got sick or died caught the virus directly from poultry, but health experts have warned that it could change into a form that moves from one human to another, resulting in a pandemic. "Many scientists following the H5N1 virus now in circulation believe that if it became readily transmittable between humans, it could become a very severe outbreak," Levi said. "We could be talking about nearly 90 million Americans becoming ill, 45 million needing medical care, and over two million people dying," he added. "In addition to possible tragic consequences for human health, a pandemic poses a real threat to our global economy - an outbreak has the potential to affect communities and countries across the world simultaneous[ly]," he said. "In today's global economy almost every aspect of commerce relies directly or indirectly on an interconnected world wide network of workers, product and services," Levi noted. "A major shock to this network could have serious negative consequences on trade and commerce worldwide. "Our analysis found that if this severe pandemic hit the U.S., it could result in the second-worst recession in our country since World War II," he said. Levi said that if a pandemic flu came to the United States, every state could lose over five percent of its gross domestic product. "Our country is not prepared to face a shock to our economy of this magnitude," he said. The Trust for America's Health advocates various policies which it says will lower transmission rates in the U.S. if a pandemic should occur. They include examining and modifying family and medical leave policies; expanding telecommuting capabilities; assessing infection control procedures in the workplace; and establishing contingency systems to maintain the delivery of goods and services during a pandemic. Other policy experts were more cautious in their prognoses. Roger Bate, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told Cybercast News Service that a pandemic of avian flu that would seriously harm the U.S. economy was possible but "extremely unlikely." Bate argued that "preemptive action," such as supporting the World Health Organization's efforts in Asia "to lower chance of transmission," is the "best defense" for the United States - better than "buying up vast amounts of Tamiflu." Tamiflu (oseltamivir) is an anti-viral drug that appears to be the most effective available against H5N1. As yet there is no specific vaccine. "At this moment I think our threat is not as serious as predicted by many of the leading health experts or policy makers," said Andrew Yanzhong Huang, director of the Center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall University. "H5N1 has been largely dormant in recent months," he told Cybercast News Service. "Many of these predictions about the consequences, the fatalities, or damages to the economy and society are actually based on the worst scenario - the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic," Huang said. "Keep in mind that even the 1918 Spanish Flu failed to create a depression as serious as the 1929 [Great Depression]," he said. "The economy could actually grow faster in the wake of the pandemic, so the impact could be very mixed and some may not be entirely negative." More than 40 million people reportedly died during the 1918 outbreak. Millions more died in flu pandemics in 1957-58 and 1968-69. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: [email protected] Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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