http://www.cfr.org/publication/13307/preventing_the_next_attack.html

Preventing the Next Attack 


May 11, 2007



For years, terrorism experts have cautioned that the next terrorist attack
in the United States could be carried out by a homegrown cell, inspired by
radical propaganda but with no formal ties to any terrorist organization. On
May 8 these warnings gained some gravity when the U.S. Department of Justice
announced the arrests <http://newark.fbi.gov/dojpressrel/2007/nk050807.htm>
of six men in New Jersey who were allegedly plotting an armed assault
(Newsweek.com) <http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18560956/site/newsweek/>  on the
Fort Dix Army base. Four of the accused conspirators came from the former
Yugoslavia, one from Turkey, and one from Jordan; none had any known ties to
other terrorist groups. Their capture capped a fifteen-
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/documents/ftdixplot_affidavit_0
50807.pdf> month
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/documents/ftdixplot_affidavit_0
50807.pdf> FBI investigation (PDF).

Stories like this have become increasingly familiar. The New York Police
Department received high praise after a yearlong undercover
<http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/features/10559/> operation (
<http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/features/10559/> New York) resulted in the
arrest and conviction of two men plotting to bomb the Herald Square subway
station in 2004. Defendants in that case claimed entrapment, as did Hamid
Hayat, a Pakistani-American teenager from Lodi, California, who in 2006 was
convicted in federal court of providing support to terrorists. He maintains
an undercover FBI agent openly pressured him to explore radical ideologies (
<http://www.latimes.com/features/magazine/west/la-tm-wedick22may28,0,4951185
.story?coll=la-home-magazine> LAT). As with previous cases, family members
of the six men arrested in New Jersey claim their innocence (
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/09/AR200705090
2695_2.html?hpid=topnews> WashPost). In earlier instances, local Muslim
communities felt unfairly targeted by law enforcement, a sentiment which, as
this Backgrounder <file:///C:/publication/11509/>  explains, could help
radicalize some American Muslims while leading others to mistrust the
police. 

All this speaks to the difficulties faced by law enforcement officials
charged with combating homegrown terrorism. Jihadi propaganda, easily
accessed on the Internet <file:///C:/publication/10005/> , has led to a rise
in self-starting terrorist cells across the globe. Some experts say the
United States needs a domestic intelligence agency similar to Britain's MI5,
a proposal considered in this Online  <file:///C:/publication/11990/>
Debate. But MI5 has had its own troubles; a recent Economist report details
how a massive investigation
<http://economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9111542>  into a group
of men plotting bomb attacks in Britain failed to discover that two of the
group's affiliates were plotting the July 2005 attack on London's mass
transit system. 

Some experts suggest the best defense against homegrown terrorism is
effective  <http://www.cpt-mi.org/pdf/NJPoliceGuide.pdf> community policing
(PDF)-beat cops who know a community well enough to sense when something is
amiss. Since 2002, New York City has built one of the world's premiere
counterterrorism police  <file:///C:/publication/12312/> units. Local police
have also made effective use of recent changes to domestic surveillance law.
Though the Bush administration took criticism for its warrantless wiretaps
<file:///C:/publication/9763/> , legitimate electronic surveillance proved
useful in the recent New Jersey arrests. 

Intelligence sharing can also help detect homegrown cells. Most states have
developed intelligence "fusion  <file:///C:/publication/12689/> centers" to
cull information from various state and federal agencies. The FBI has
established one hundred Joint
<http://www.fbi.gov/page2/dec04/jttf120114.htm> Terrorism Task Forces to
help coordinate efforts between local and federal authorities. The National
Journal takes an in-depth look at how such
<http://www.cpt-mi.org/pdf/Shadow_Hunters.pdf> cooperation (PDF) has played
out in Los Angeles. 

 



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