On Sep 1, 2009, at 11:28 AM, Chris Gehlker wrote: > It seems like a long shot but I don't think it can be ruled out: > (1) Cheney's base is passionate and committed. Cheney knows how to > fire them up.
True. but the thing that rules him out is his health. He's got more artificial parts that the terminator and a bad ticker. The only way I see it happening is if we are attacked in a big way again. At that point he might be elected by acclamation. > (2) Obama's base is increasingly demoralized. Increasingly Obama seems > to only know how to piss them off. Welcome to the right reading "Rules For Radicals" and taking plays from the left's book. Obama is caught. The left is pissed that he is not being left enough. The right is getting organized to fight his policies because he is too "left" by making it personal for each congress critter. and Obama is as tone deaf as a stone about what is really going on. Bad advice? No matter what you hear. The majority of "grassroots" really are just that. (I see on the Dem's site that they are "organizing a grassroots efforts.. lol..) The town halls are attracting a lot of pissed off people. (no doubt a few are plants but no more that the left does) Name calling the people that oppose him, just fires them up more and gives them more publicity. The sooner he figures it out the better. Clinton did (after getting his ass handed to him in the mid- terms) Obama runs the same risk. If he loses control in 2010, The middle (independents) are flipping their percentages left->right because they don't seem to want the "public" option or are just disillusioned that Obama's words do not match his actions. That is why you see this graph (Sept 1, tracking poll) <http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/obama_index_graphics/september_2009/obama_approval_index_september_1_2009/244513-1-eng-US/obama_approval_index_september_1_2009.jpg > The slope of the disapprove number should really worry him. For sure, it's not lost on the Blue Dogs. > (3) The media, and I don't just mean Fox News, threats Cheney and his > daughter with great respect. Ask Kerry what happens when you don't. You want to screw with the Sith Lord go ahead but I don't want to watch what happens.. Too gory.. > (4) Americans turn on presidents who lose wars and no outside power > has ever won in Afghanistan. Indeed. I think I have talked by Sergeant Major friend out of going for a 5th tour and retiring instead. He has done his share and I think that Afghanistan is way more dangerous than reported. We run the very real risk of getting our collective asses kicked there and it is indeed Obama's war at this point. When he was campaigning, he said that "he" would have "finished the job" in Afghanistan. So his options are to either doubles down and tries to do what has never been done. (welcome to vietnam) , or leave.. and take the heat that he "lost the war" in Afghanistan.. Looks bad when you run for reelection. Pretty much lose, lose.. Side note: Remember how I railed at the idea of equating Iraq with Vietnam? I can see direct parallels with Afghanistan and Vietnam. The number one is that they have a "safe" base of operations in Pakistan. That was missing in Iraq. Sure we whack it with a drone now and then, but we don't invade so they have a place to go and rest and rearm. Also, I've seen the after action analysis of the AQ ambushes in Afghanistan. Very sophisticated, taken right out of their Russian occupation playbook. (shit, we taught them how to do it..) In Iraq, the "good" news was that a lot of the jihadis where not experienced war fighters. It made it easier to kill them. Not so in Afghanistan. They know what they are doing and have good leadership. The only ray of hope is that the Russians are not supplying them the way we did when the Russians were there. Good photos of the brits in action <http://www.michaelyon-online.com/precision-voting.htm > > <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/01/cheney-in-2012-some-key-g_n_273470.html Cheney, could play king maker perhaps.. =c= _______________________________________________ OSX-Nutters mailing list | [email protected] http://lists.tit-wank.com/mailman/listinfo/osx-nutters List hosted at http://cat5.org/
