On Thu, 05 Apr 2001 19:08:57 -0400, you wrote:
>I guess even with insurance, I'm still leery. Say I do 500 weddings in
>my life, and I mail out the film for all of them. What would be the odds
>that the carriers go 500 for 500? Maybe I distrust the carriers too
>much, but I have a feeling the odds are too low.
>
I have a lot of historical information on carrier errors in my
business - several hundred thousand shipments over the past five
years. The best carriers, in their best years, average 98% on-time
error-free shipments. Much of my data is for shipments of over 40 lbs,
but we do a lot of one-package shipments also.
So, no carrier will get it right 100% of the time. If you do 500
weddings and use commercial carriers of any sort (overnight, US Mail,
large carriers, etc) then it is extremely likely that ten of those
shipments will have a problem - either a significant delay, or loss of
the item, or damage to the item.
The real headaches for me occur when carrier performance dips into the
95% range, or when they damage or lose product which requires special
purchase raw materials. Then we hustle to produce replacement product
immediately, with no leadtime for raw materials. The customers don't
really want to hear that I can't get another 40,000 pounds of special
purchase paper for at least three more weeks, or that it will take
another week to produce it, and another few days to ship it to them.
They want their product now, and no excuses.
Carrier errors can cost any firm a lot of money. In my business, we
sometimes keep the customer happy (and reduce the cost impact to us)
by offering gratis overruns on future business. That limits our
expense to raw materials, a little extra production time, and a little
extra shipping cost. The upside is that it encourages the customer to
place at least one more order with us; the downside is that some
customers start looking for minor defects so they can get a 5% or 10%
gratis overrun on their next order.
--
John Mustarde
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