On 7/22/05 4:43 AM, "Rob Studdert" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> OK I hear all you say and I can appreciate the company philosophy but how does > the 645D fit into it, it's hardly a conservative move. A camera to replace the > *ist D six months ago surely wouldn't have been too much of an imposition on > the company, far less than launching an MF DSLR I'm guessing? Besides PDML, I only watch lists in Japan, so my info and observations are naturally biased toward what's happening in Japan, which may or may not apply directly to the rest of the world. With above qualification; 1. Your question was the same one folks in Japan were asking. 2. They also asked if P intended to offer the 645D as their top of the line DSLR, particularly 35mm FF DSLR. 3. I remember a long time ago, which might have been even before the 645D was announced, when a Pentax person uttered that "there was a lot of pressure from the pros to make the 645D or a digital back for the 645". 4. I believe the answer to why P create and market 645D first is rather simple. I believe it has far less to do with their technical ability to produce larger sensor SLR. It is simply because they basically own the studio pro (and nature photographers) market through 645 and 6x7, and this is a "paying" market on which they can pretty much count (and a lot of enthusiasts market too). This plus their very close relationship with this particular "pro" group is making it so much easier for P to invest in and market 645D. I know Hassy and Mamiya etc have their own market but the position of Pentax 645 in the pro market is special. P also benefits from a lot of advices from these pros. Concept of the Limited lenses was one of them. So, simply speaking, 645 pro market to P is like a PJ market to Canon. C/N have to serve their captive market and even though their FF DSLR cost so much, there is a paying segment of the market. 5. Re whether P will enter into a FF DSLR market, I believe they certainly will, if the cost decreases to a reasonable level, consequently the size of the market increases, justifying the investment and when everybody else makes it. I just cannot see any reason why P would not make FF DSLR only because they have 645D, when there is a market and everybody else is in it. 645D and FF DSLR serve the different markets. I think it all comes down to the cost and the economics after all. I would think there is very little change in camera design itself be it a FF or an APS sized sensor. When the sensor cost comes down and crosses certain threshold, makers will start offering it and people will start buying it. Remember P now have so many software engineers (naturally). 6. But there seems to be a pause in the market contemplating whether it is really a good idea to increase the size of the sensor, or more accurately, makers may have started thinking that APS sized sensor is a new genre and can develop it further. If the sensor technology rapidly develops, then why do they have to stick to the 35mm concept, except the 35mm lenses can be used without FL conversion, granted that the larger is always 9or generally0 better. At the beginning of the DSLR, makers must have thought this was the great opportunity to make a compact kit, better (and less expensive) lenses etc. 4/3 was probably based on that idea (but when Oly came up with the products, the stuff, particularly lenses were as big as Canon's. A big disappointment from which Oly has not recovered yet. Maybe Panasonic could fix it :-). Nikon has obviously been watching the market. A lot of people thought that their mount reached the limit in more flexible lens design anyway. 7. But in the end, regardless of the competitions' wishful thinking, I believe they will be dragged into the game played by Canon, who have a large enough mount, own sensors and openly announced the shortening of the product life cycle. I personally do not at all like an unreasonably short product life cycle. If I buy a DSLR, I like to think it would be reasonably current for 2 years. But Canon spit our Rebel variations almost 6 months cycle (feel like so much shorter than that) and they do that mostly in the largest segment of the market, i.e., entry level. "Some" 20D owners are feeling they were cheated by Canon :-). They hustle competitions, who have no choice but to spit out new models in order to respond to Canon's challenge. Rebel is now 8MP (I believe) and might soon be 10 or 12MP. How many of the entry level users will truly understand the difference in the MP and dynamic range etc? How many of this intended target market understand and shoot RAW ? Are they not much better off with the 6MP but much cheaper cameras? It does not matter. This is the way Canon refresh the market and maintain the price level in this competitive market segment. Canon certainly know how to appeal to the average crowd by creating an MP myth as well as overly sharpened and high contrast images (Rebel) but that's their game. Rebel is an excellent product for its price, no question about it, but I understand that it is really cheaply built with a lot of troubles. I have never seen the *istDL but I am sure Pentax's approach to this market is somewhat different from Canon's. Probably somewhat better built, less bells and whistles (certainly not as flashy as Canon's) but all necessary basics are right there. If you use it, you would appreciate it. Maybe.... Anyway, if someone make a living by selling their photos, I can see P may not be a good choice at least at the present, feature wise. But I am not sure if there is a huge difference in the quality of the end products, images. I am not talking about 1D etc, for which one should stash out thousands of dollars. MP will settle where it should among all makers anyway. When the dust settles and the DSLR market matures, I am sure everybody is making essentially the same thing at more or less the same price range, just like the film cameras. The question is when the dust begins to settle. There is a lot of questions such as who supplies what sensors to whom etc etc. But, I believe (and hope) we will see where everybody would be going in the next 6 to 12 month, probably earlier than we think. P already made it clear that they will be announcing at least a few more new DSLR models. They probably have no choice. I also believe the features like IS/AS would be a must, not so much because it is actually necessary when the noise is so much less in higher ISO these days, but this is more about the marketing. When everybody else has it, you have to have it to stay in competition. If, for example, Oly/Panasonic would come up with a very well designed compact 4/3 package with dust reduction and IS/AS, Canon's dominance may finally begin to be eroded. Panasonic has been incorporating the IS/AS system in their video camera for more than 20 years. Oly/Pentax have always been making the products which are somewhat different from N/C's and unique. That's probably the way of their survival. KM appears to have sold their soul to Sony, but we never know what's in their sleeve. Tough time for camera makers now, for sure. Anyway, I am sure we will see a lot more interesting development by all makers beginning now. Cheers, Ken
