I disagree. The K100D/K110D are a distinct improvement over their predecessors and are real price leaders, being the first DSLR's to retail in the same price range as amateur film bodies on launch. The DSLR market is not nearly as MP-driven as the P&S market, but it is price driven. The XT is the sales leader, but Pentax has been selling all it can make in the low-end market and Nikon has also moved in there aggressively, looking to repeat what Canon did to Nikon with the film Rebels. Canon simply isn't a player in the low-end DSLR market at this point and they haven't been since the original Digital Rebel was discontinued and Oly's base model (the E-500) is unimpressive and overpriced.
And base models are the volume sellers in this market. The K10D is almost twice the price of a K110D. It shouldn't be selling as well as it is, except the mid-range Pentax market has been starved for a real option in Digital, and it's better-specified than the competition which is making a real splash outside of Pentax's usual audience. You're paying far too much attention to MP count. The 6MP models are here to stay, they're just going to get cheaper as time goes on. The sensors are proven designs and cheap to produce, the 10MP sensors are noisier and more complex (driving up manufacturing costs). Canon's 8MP model has left them in limbo and I think that will tell sales-wise in the long-term. The XT is stuck between the 6MP and 10MP models in price and specs, leaving it in an awkward position in the current market (But in a stronger position than the equally awkward position of the less impressive E-500). I suspect that the XT will be discontinued late next year or possibly in early 2008 when its sales peter out leaving Canon to try and drive the XTi's production costs down. -Adam Tom C wrote: > I think Nikon may have done it because anything with the Nikon name brand on > it sells well, regardless of how good a camera it is or whether it has value > for the dollar. They can sop up a huge portion of the bottom end of the > market with probably 2 - 3 times the sales Pentax will generate with their 6 > MP models. > > I thought it foolish for Pentax to waste their efforts on two more 6MP > bodies when it's clear where the market is heading. > > Since Canon's low-end 8MP body has been out for quite sometime now, in the > life of things digital, I expect we will see it go out of production > shortly, making the 10MP model their bottom rung. > > Not trying to argue, I'm just saying (not in hindsight), all things > considered, I would have expected the K10D to be the big seller (especially > at it's price), not their 6MP bodies which aside from SR in one, are not > considerably different from the prior *ist D derivative. > > Tom C. > > > > >>From: Adam Maas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>Reply-To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> >>To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> >>Subject: Re: Another interview articles >>Date: Tue, 05 Dec 2006 15:43:27 -0500 >> >>If 6MP is a dinosaur, why did Nikon just announce one (D40)? And note that >>the Rebel XT (which is still Canon's base model and is still notably more >>expensive than the other base models, (the XTi is their next step up and is >>likely to stay there). 6MP is the value lead right now. 10MP is the next >>step up. 8MP is essentially indistinguishable from 6MP for most uses >>anyways. >> >>There are no bottom-end 10MP bodies. The closest are the XTi and A100, both >>of which are priced well over the current bottom end (which is $499 US in >>the D40 and K110D). >> >>-Adam >> >> >>Tom C wrote: >> >>>I understand that kind of thinking... but not considering the timing of >> >>the >> >>>product releases. Canon, being the dominant player in the market, does >> >>not >> >>>now have a 6MP DSLR body and has had a bottom end 8Mp body for a year >> >>and a >> >>>half or so, with their newest bottom end being a 10MP body (I still >> >>can't >> >>>really fathom that Nikon has a current 6mp body). Nikon also has two >> >>10MP >> >>>bodies in their lineup. >>> >>>To me at least, it seemed fairly obvious that the demand would be for >> >>the >> >>>higher end body, because 6MP cameras were about to become the dinosaur, >> >>and >> >>>10 MP cameras were going to be the "new pink". The new bottom end 10MP >>>cameras were going to be more appealing to both a prior owner and a new >>>buyer because they offered more, for less money, than the 6MP bodies did >>>just 2 - 3 years ago. >>> >>> >>>Tom C. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>>From: Adam Maas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>>Reply-To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> >>>>To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> >>>>Subject: Re: Another interview articles >>>>Date: Tue, 05 Dec 2006 13:44:21 -0500 >>>> >>>>They were expecting it to sell. They weren't expecting a higher-end body >> >>to >> >>>>be more popular at launch that the last low-end body as low-end bodies >>>>typically outsell high-end bodies by a fair margin. >>>> >>>>-Adam >>>> >>>> >>>>Tom C wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>>>Yeah that makes alot of sense. Spend several years designing what you >>>> >>>>will >>>> >>>> >>>>>advertise as a superior product, but don't anticipate selling that >>>> >>>>many... >>>> >>>> >>>>>LOL. So how many sales will be lost? >>>>> >>>>>This is what several of us were saying months back. It's simple. >>>> >>>>Anyone >>>> >>>> >>>>>wanting to purchase a higher end body than the now, arguably passe 6MP >>>>>bodies, will be comparing Canon's bottom end offering to the other >>>> >>>>offerings >>>> >>>> >>>>>available and will see that 6MP is the bottom rung. Since Pentax has >>>> >>>>just >>>> >>>> >>>>>one body with more than 6MP, the 10MP K10D, that would logically be the >>>>>camera most potential customers would be eyeing when comparing among >>>> >>>>brands. >>>> >>>> >>>>>Yes it's good for Pentax that the new K10D is in such high demand. >> >>It's >> >>>>bad >>>> >>>> >>>>>that they will inevitably lose some sales (bodies and lenses) because >> >>of >> >>>>>non-supply, especially those potential customers with no reason to have >>>> >>>>any >>>> >>>> >>>>>brand-loyalty to Pentax. >>>>> >>>>>Tom C. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>>From: "K.Takeshita" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>>>>Reply-To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> >>>>>>To: Pentax-Discuss Mail List <pdml@pdml.net> >>>>>>Subject: Another interview articles >>>>>>Date: Mon, 04 Dec 2006 23:27:18 -0500 >>>>>> >>>>>>Hi folks, >>>>>> >>>>>>There are a couple of interviews on K10D cropped up in Japanese >>>> >>>>articles. >>>> >>>> >>>>>>One is a bit more technical with a few participants by Pentax. >> >>Another >> >>>>is >>>> >>>> >>>>>>with Mr.Tatamiya (nick named "Tatamy" in Japan :-) talking about the >>>>>>marketing side. According to him (Tatamy), they really screwed up the >>>>>>forecasting of expected sales. In Japan, pre-booking of K10D exceeded >>>> >>>>that >>>> >>>> >>>>>>of K100D by more than double. In overseas market, it was even worse. >>>> >>>>In >>>> >>>> >>>>>>certain country wherein the sales have been traditionally week, they >>>>>>estimated the first shipment be approx 50 units, but the actual order >>>> >>>>was >>>> >>>> >>>>>>1000 units. This situation is reflected in Japanese site where a lot >> >>of >> >>>>>>people are still waiting. First shipment apparently went to satisfy >> >>the >> >>>>>>pre-booked orders. Next sale would be around Dec 11. It appears that >>>>>>Japan >>>>>>is most suffering. Pentax employees are not allowed to buy it (I >> >>guess >> >>>>>>they >>>>>>are talking about in-company sale). >>>>>>Technical interview reveals the inner working of their engineering, >>>>>> >>>>>>Anyway, as soon as I find time, I will translate both interviews >>>>>>(preempting >>>>>>the sharp-eyed finding these articles). >>>>>> >>>>>>Ken >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>-- >>>>>>PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List >>>>>>PDML@pdml.net >>>>>>http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>>-- >>>>PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List >>>>PDML@pdml.net >>>>http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >>-- >>PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List >>PDML@pdml.net >>http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net > > > > -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
