Tom Wrote:

Are you sure those lenses are in production?  Designed maybe, but I would
think otherwise in the same status as the 645D.  They're not making lenses
for a camera that's not on the production line.

I'm not expecting it or holding my breath, but to me it makes *more sense*
to produce a FF 24 X 36 body than the 645D. Here's why:

1. Canon and Nikon both now have FF bodies on the market.  If Pentax can get
one out in short order they can be #3 to do so, ahead of Sony and Olympus.
That would be a big feather in Pentax's cap.

2. The sales of a 645D would be relatively small compared to the sales of a
FF 24 x 36 body because the market is smaller.  Pentax 35mm body/lens owners
out number Pentax 645 owners by a large factor.  Can't begin to guess what
it is, 100-to-1, 1000-to-1?

3. Moving to a 645 format is much costlier to non-645 system owners because
they must buy into a whole new system.  I'd personally be more likely to buy
a FF Canon or Nikon 24 x 36 body if I was going to change systems.  Last but
not least it would still fit in the same camera bag. :-)

4. Pentax can do the in body sensor crop when DA lenses are attached,
preserving the usefulness of the DA lens series for those that have
purchased them.

5. It can't be any harder for Pentax to design and manufacture a FF 24 x 36
body than the 645.  They have all the basics. Yes they would need to
reeingineer the image processing engine, have a larger LCD,  and other
firmware/hardware changes, but that's a given with any new camera model.
The only thing really holding them back would be whether they can obtain a
sensor at a price point that will put the resulting product within reach of
a large number of customers.



REPLY:

1. The fact that Nikon and Canon have FF camera on the market doesn't make 
it easier for Pentax to sell one. As Nikon and Canon FF bodies consist 
together at about 1% of the market the potential sales volume for a Pentax 
FF is minuscule indeed. I'm sure that the FF market share will increase but 
not significantly  in the next couple of years. As an FF Pentax will be 
compared to Nikon and Canon FF camera it needs to be equal in other 
departments as well; not just the sensor.

2. Nobody knows the size of the MF based digital camera market as noone is 
really selling any. Mamiya is a microscopic player several times bankrupt 
and until a major player in digital cameras actually market an MF digital 
camera, the market simply won't happen. Also, the size of the market is 
dependent on the price of the 645D; an unknown at this point. My guess is 
that a 645D at twice the price of an FF Pentax K-mount Nikon killer will 
sell twice as much as that FF camera.
As for lenses; there are much more pofessional grade Pentax MF lenses out 
there than Pentax K-mount pro glass. Most of the Pentax K-mount lenses are 
kit zooms and the 50/2 lens. None of them use by folks likely to buy a FF 
Pentax DSLR. All MF lenses are basically pro lenses in this regard and 
Pentax got a significant market share in the MF world; up to 50%.

3. As Pentax MF cameras are among the most popular MF systems of all times 
there are plenty of potential users for this camera. Besides, there are 
those who will want a sensor twice the size of any Nikon and Canon thus 
obtaining image quality not available from those brands; perhaps optimized 
for resolution rather than speed or high ISO performance.

5. It is much harder for Pentax to manufacture a K-mount FF camera than the 
645D as the FF camera will need to compete with Nikon and Canon whereas the 
645D will outperform Nikon and Canon in image quality and compete with 
obscenely priced digital backs. In addition, the 645D is built around the 
old 645 chassis, mirror, and finder system. Long since payed for. Its 
electronics is derived from the K10D or coming K-mount bodies.
It also doesn't face the same demand for fast AF and image processing speed 
as a Nikon/Canon FF competitor will as it will be targeted at high 
resolution uses; typically landscape and studio use.


Pål



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