First, a minor quibble: 645D is 1st generation, 645Z is 2nd generation; you have it the other way around. But I think the main thrust of your discussion is mostly on target.
I looked at the specs for the new Nikon $6500 camera, did a quick comparison with the 645Z. About the same size, about the same price. The Nikon has a larger more diverse suite of lenses available, has much more sophisticated AF system and can shot sports-photographer-class frames per second. I suspect the 645Z produces better images in the studio or in landscape mode. Assume for the moment that the K-1 FF will be somewhat like the Nikon offering: rapid accurate AF, high frame rate, good image quality. I think what we are left with is not the linear progression that your price progression implies. Rather, I think we have two camera lines. K-3ii -> K-1, and 645D -> 645Z. Or arguably three distinct lines. The APS-C, FF, and 645 have such different characteristics that a knowledgable consumer will be making choices based on the fit of the tool for his job, not just on price. And if this analysis has any merit, then it wouldn’t surprise me to see the K-1 at a price point about $500 less than the 645D. stan > On Jan 13, 2016, at 8:23 PM, Darren Addy <pixelsmi...@gmail.com> wrote: > > I find the price trend on the 645D to be interesting (if my empty > pocketbook says I'm not quite tempted yet). It seems that there are > more 645D on the market recently, and I it occurs to me that some are > probably upgrading to the 645z and some are possibly selling in > anticipation of getting the Pentax FF (or moving to some other FF > system). We can't discount the fact that as time moves on the 645D > becomes older and older technology, which also accounts for some of > the price slide. > > I don't think we are terribly far away from seeing used 645D bodies > selling for under $2K. It is possible that the FF Pentax's actual > introduction may even exert a little upward pressure back on the 645D, > depending upon it's price and specs: One might be deciding between the > latest Pentax technology K-1 at 36 or 42 MP for $2895 vs the 40MP 645D > for a chunk less. > > If this happens, the price progression would be: > Flagship APS-C: K-3 II > 2nd Generation 645D > Full frame: K-1 > Medium format 1st generation: 645z > > Thoughts? > -- > Life is too short to put up with bad bokeh. > > -- > PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List > PDML@pdml.net > http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net > to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow > the directions. -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net to UNSUBSCRIBE from the PDML, please visit the link directly above and follow the directions.
