This is entirely speculative, but don't forget the political business cycle.
Clinton must stand for reelection in two and a half years. If the economy is
permitted to grow between now and then there may be more likelihood of a
downturn at that time. (The cause might be either endogenous or exogenous.)
Too risky. If the economy can be slowed this year or next, it can roar in
1996. Of course, just because this approach makes strategic sense we can't
assume it is actually being followed.
Peter Dorman
