The timing on that is risky. Ideally, the peak should be the month of the
election, give or take a few weeks; if it's a little earlier, people won't
notice. For the expansion to continue to Nov 96 would make it a virtual
nonegenarian: the average post WWII expansion is 17 quarters, or 51
months; Nov 96 would mark the 68th month of the expansion. But say
yesterday's hike begins a string that lasts for a year or more, with a
recession beginning in 12-18 months. That would be the spring or summer of
1995. Meanwhile, Clinton's sustained fiscal tightening, and further cuts
due in the new budget, begin to bite. A typical recession lasts 4 quarters
- ending then in the spring or summer of 1996 - election season.
Bush screwed up the whole damned election cycle.
Doug
Doug Henwood [[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Left Business Observer
212-874-4020 (voice)
212-874-3137 (fax)
On Thu, 3 Feb 1994, Peter.Dorman wrote:
> This is entirely speculative, but don't forget the political business cycle.
> Clinton must stand for reelection in two and a half years. If the economy is
> permitted to grow between now and then there may be more likelihood of a
> downturn at that time. (The cause might be either endogenous or exogenous.)
> Too risky. If the economy can be slowed this year or next, it can roar in
> 1996. Of course, just because this approach makes strategic sense we can't
> assume it is actually being followed.
>
> Peter Dorman
