Comrades - Eric Nilsson asked: >Doug, if you have the time to explain, what's the basic >post-1980 trend in the voluntary job leaver data? Was >the 1990-92 data out of line with previous recession >experience or is it that something different is now happening >in 1995? >From the numbers below, the leavers data doesn't (or as they say around the Fed, don't) seem to move in interesting ways. Most of the action is in the job loser category. Doug -- Doug Henwood Left Business Observer 250 W 85 St New York NY 10024-3217 USA +1-212-874-4020 voice +1-212-874-3137 fax email: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> web: <http://www.panix.com/~dhenwood/LBO_home.html> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COMPOSITION OF UNEMPLOYMENT, LFPR, AND EPR, US, 1967-95 (quarterly data) unemployed, % of CLF ----------------------------------------------------- job losers -------------------- job new re- total total layoff other leavers entr entr LFPR EPR 67Q1 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 59.3% 57.0% 67Q2 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 59.4% 57.1% 67Q3 3.8% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 59.7% 57.4% 67Q4 3.9% 1.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 59.9% 57.5% 68Q1 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 59.4% 57.2% 68Q2 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 59.8% 57.7% 68Q3 3.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 59.6% 57.5% 68Q4 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 59.6% 57.6% 69Q1 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 59.8% 57.8% 69Q2 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 60.0% 57.9% 69Q3 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 60.2% 58.1% 69Q4 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 60.3% 58.1% 70Q1 4.2% 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% 60.5% 57.9% 70Q2 4.8% 2.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 60.4% 57.5% 70Q3 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5% 60.3% 57.2% 70Q4 5.8% 2.8% 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 60.4% 56.9% 71Q1 5.9% 2.7% 0.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 60.2% 56.6% 71Q2 5.9% 2.8% 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 60.0% 56.5% 71Q3 6.0% 2.8% 0.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 60.2% 56.6% 71Q4 6.0% 2.7% 0.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 60.3% 56.7% 72Q1 5.8% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 60.3% 56.8% 72Q2 5.7% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.9% 1.7% 60.4% 57.0% 72Q3 5.6% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 60.4% 57.1% 72Q4 5.3% 2.2% 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 60.4% 57.2% 73Q1 5.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.6% 60.4% 57.4% 73Q2 4.9% 1.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.8% 1.6% 60.8% 57.8% 73Q3 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 60.8% 57.9% 73Q4 4.8% 1.9% 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 61.1% 58.2% 74Q1 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 61.3% 58.2% 74Q2 5.2% 2.1% 0.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 61.2% 58.0% 74Q3 5.6% 2.4% 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 61.3% 57.9% 74Q4 6.6% 3.1% 1.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 61.3% 57.2% 75Q1 8.2% 4.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.8% 2.0% 61.2% 56.2% 75Q2 8.9% 5.1% 2.1% 3.0% 0.9% 0.8% 2.1% 61.3% 55.9% 75Q3 8.5% 4.9% 1.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 61.3% 56.1% 75Q4 8.3% 4.4% 1.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 61.1% 56.0% 76Q1 7.7% 3.9% 1.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 2.0% 61.3% 56.5% 76Q2 7.6% 3.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 61.5% 56.9% 76Q3 7.7% 3.8% 1.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.9% 2.0% 61.7% 57.0% 76Q4 7.8% 3.8% 1.1% 2.7% 0.9% 1.0% 2.1% 61.8% 57.0% 77Q1 7.5% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 2.1% 61.9% 57.2% 77Q2 7.1% 3.2% 0.8% 2.3% 0.9% 1.0% 2.0% 62.2% 57.8% 77Q3 6.9% 3.1% 0.9% 2.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 62.2% 58.0% 77Q4 6.6% 2.9% 0.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 62.6% 58.5% 78Q1 6.3% 2.7% 0.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 62.8% 58.8% 78Q2 6.0% 2.5% 0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 63.1% 59.3% 78Q3 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 63.2% 59.4% 78Q4 5.9% 2.4% 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 63.5% 59.7% 79Q1 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 1.7% 63.7% 60.0% 79Q2 5.7% 2.3% 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 63.4% 59.8% 79Q3 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.7% 1.8% 63.7% 60.0% 79Q4 5.9% 2.7% 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 63.8% 60.0% 80Q1 6.3% 3.0% 1.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 63.9% 59.9% 80Q2 7.3% 3.8% 1.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 63.8% 59.1% 80Q3 7.7% 4.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 63.7% 58.8% 80Q4 7.4% 3.9% 1.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.8% 63.7% 59.0% 81Q1 7.4% 3.7% 1.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 64.0% 59.2% 81Q2 7.4% 3.7% 1.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 64.1% 59.4% 81Q3 7.4% 3.8% 1.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 63.7% 59.0% 81Q4 8.2% 4.4% 1.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% 63.8% 58.5% 82Q1 8.8% 5.0% 1.7% 3.3% 0.8% 1.0% 2.0% 63.8% 58.1% 82Q2 9.4% 5.5% 1.8% 3.6% 0.8% 1.0% 2.2% 64.0% 58.0% 82Q3 9.9% 5.9% 2.1% 3.8% 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 64.1% 57.7% 82Q4 10.7% 6.5% 2.2% 4.3% 0.7% 1.2% 2.3% 64.1% 57.3% 83Q1 10.4% 6.2% 1.9% 4.3% 0.8% 1.1% 2.3% 63.8% 57.1% 83Q2 10.1% 6.0% 1.7% 4.3% 0.7% 1.2% 2.2% 63.9% 57.5% 83Q3 9.4% 5.4% 1.5% 3.9% 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 64.3% 58.2% 83Q4 8.5% 4.7% 1.2% 3.5% 0.8% 1.0% 2.0% 64.1% 58.6% 84Q1 7.9% 4.2% 1.1% 3.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.9% 64.0% 59.0% 84Q2 7.5% 3.8% 1.0% 2.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.9% 64.5% 59.6% 84Q3 7.4% 3.8% 1.0% 2.8% 0.7% 1.0% 2.0% 64.5% 59.7% 84Q4 7.3% 3.7% 1.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 64.5% 59.8% 85Q1 7.3% 3.7% 1.0% 2.6% 0.7% 0.9% 2.0% 64.8% 60.1% 85Q2 7.3% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% 64.7% 60.0% 85Q3 7.2% 3.6% 1.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 64.7% 60.1% 85Q4 7.0% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 64.9% 60.4% 86Q1 7.0% 3.4% 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.9% 65.0% 60.5% 86Q2 7.2% 3.6% 0.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 1.9% 65.2% 60.6% 86Q3 7.0% 3.4% 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.8% 65.4% 60.8% 86Q4 6.8% 3.3% 0.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.8% 65.4% 60.9% 87Q1 6.6% 3.2% 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 65.4% 61.1% 87Q2 6.3% 3.0% 0.8% 2.3% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 65.6% 61.4% 87Q3 6.0% 2.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 65.6% 61.7% 87Q4 5.9% 2.8% 0.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% 65.7% 61.9% 88Q1 5.7% 2.6% 0.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 1.6% 65.8% 62.0% 88Q2 5.5% 2.5% 0.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 65.8% 62.2% 88Q3 5.5% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 1.5% 66.0% 62.3% 88Q4 5.3% 2.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 1.4% 66.1% 62.6% 89Q1 5.2% 2.4% 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.5% 66.3% 62.9% 89Q2 5.2% 2.3% 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 66.4% 63.0% 89Q3 5.3% 2.4% 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 66.5% 63.0% 89Q4 5.4% 2.5% 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 66.5% 63.0% 90Q1 5.3% 2.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.4% 66.5% 63.0% 90Q2 5.3% 2.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 66.4% 62.9% 90Q3 5.6% 2.7% 0.8% 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 66.3% 62.6% 90Q4 6.0% 3.0% 0.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 1.6% 66.2% 62.3% 91Q1 6.5% 3.5% 1.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 66.1% 61.8% 91Q2 6.7% 3.7% 1.1% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 1.7% 66.2% 61.7% 91Q3 6.7% 3.8% 1.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% 1.7% 65.9% 61.5% 91Q4 7.0% 3.9% 1.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.7% 65.9% 61.3% 92Q1 7.3% 4.1% 1.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 66.2% 61.3% 92Q2 7.5% 4.3% 1.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 66.4% 61.5% 92Q3 7.5% 4.3% 1.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.8% 66.4% 61.4% 92Q4 7.3% 4.1% 1.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% 66.2% 61.3% 93Q1 7.0% 3.7% 0.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 66.1% 61.4% 93Q2 7.0% 3.7% 0.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 66.2% 61.6% 93Q3 6.7% 3.8% 0.9% 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 66.1% 61.7% 93Q4 6.5% 3.5% 0.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% 66.2% 61.9% 94Q1 6.6% 3.2% 0.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 2.2% 66.7% 62.3% 94Q2 6.2% 2.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 2.2% 66.5% 62.4% 94Q3 6.0% 2.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 2.1% 66.5% 62.5% 94Q4 5.6% 2.6% 0.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0% 66.6% 62.9% 95Q1 5.5% 2.6% 0.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 66.9% 63.2% 95Q2 5.7% 2.7% 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% 66.6% 62.8% 95Q3 5.6% 2.6% 0.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 1.9% 66.6% 62.8% 95Q4 5.5% 2.6% 0.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 66.6% 62.9%
