--Boundary_(ID_PIuqmUc+sNarSplKTUOiKA)
In the category of shameless self-promotion, I am sending along news of my
new New Press book with Stephanie Luce, The Living Wage: Building A Fair
Economy. This includes a bit of advertising blurb, and Paul Krugman's
trashing of the book in the September Washington Monthly, and my response
to Krugman, part of which is in the November Washington Monthly. My debate
with Krugman is in this message and a Word attachment.
Regards, Bob Pollin
****************************************************************************
******
THE LIVING WAGE: BUILDING A FAIR ECONOMY
BY ROBERT POLLIN AND STEPHANIE LUCE
THE NEW PRESS, 1998.
"Of all the books I've read on making this country what it ought to be,
this is the best."
-- Robert Heilbroner, Norman Thomas Professor Emeritus of Economics,
New
School for Social Research
A Fight for Economic Justice
Living standard and working conditions for U.S. workers have been under
attack for a generation. To challenge this, the living wage movement has
spread rapidly throughout the country over the past four years. The Living
Wage is the first book to lay out the economic and political background for
the movement, and to analyze the effects of implementing living wage
laws--for businesses, governments, and working people.
"An excellent, informative, and highly readable analysis of the living
wage campaigns."
-- Senator Edward M. Kennedy
"This insightful study seeks out and exposes every clay foot in the
standard economic arguments against legislating a decent and livable wage
for workers."
-- John Sweeney, President, AFL-CIO
"This book does a terrific job of explaining how the living wage would
work--and how it is already working in the public sector of some of our
major cities."
-- Nancy Folbre, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts-Amherst
****************************************************************************
*********************
Moral Economics:
What the Campaign For a Living Wage is Really About
Review of
Living Wage: Building a Fair Economy
by
Robert Pollin and Stephanie Luce
New Press, 1998
Review by Paul Krugman for Washington Monthly, September 1998
Economics textbooks enthuse about virtues of a price system. In a market
economy, nobody needs to order people to economize on a scarce commodity or
make extra efforts to produce it: Scarcity leads to a high price, and sheer
self-interest does the rest. Conversely, nobody needs special persuasion
to take advantage of an underemployed resource:
Abundance will make it cheap, and again self-interest will take it from there.
And yet there is a problem with markets: They are absolutely and
relentlessly amoral. Labor, in a market system, is just another commodity;
the wage a man or woman can command has nothing to do with how much he or
she needs to make to support a family or to feel part of the broader
society. Some conservatives have managed to convince themselves that this
poses no moral dilemma, that whatever is, is just. And one supposes that
there are still unrepentant socialists who believe that one can do away
with market determination of incomes altogether. But after a century
marked by both the Great Depression -- which basically ended unalloyed
faith in markets -- and the fall of communism, most people support some
version of the welfare state: a system that is based on markets, but in
which the government tries to prevent too unequal a distribution of income.
But how is that to be accomplished? The standard economist's solution,
which is also the main way the U.S. welfare state operates, involves
"after-market" intervention: Let the markets rip, but then use progressive
taxes and redistributive transfers to make the end result fairer. However,
many liberals have always felt that this solution is unsatisfactory.
Instead, they want to increase "market" wages, notably through support of
collective bargaining, and through the imposition of minimum wage standards.
The "living wage" movement, which has attracted considerable support in
several major U.S. cities, is a variant on this tradition. As described in
Robert Pollin and Stephanie Luce's new book The Living Wage, it essentially
involves putting a floor on wages not through a conventional minimum wage
law, but by requiring minimum wage standards of firms that do business with
a local government. Aside from novel enforcement issues (I know this
lawyer who will explain to you about creating dummy companies for the
contract work, leaving the rest of the business unregulated), this is
basically a distinction without a difference: The living wage movement is
simply a move to raise minimum wages through local action.
So what are the effects of increasing minimum wages? Any Econ 101 student
can tell you the answer: The higher wage reduces the quantity of labor
demanded, and hence leads to unemployment. This theoretical prediction
has, however, been hard to confirm with actual data. Indeed, much-cited
studies by two well-regarded labor economists, David Card and Alan Krueger,
find that where there have been more or less controlled experiments, for
example when
New Jersey raised minimum wages but Pennsylvania did not, the effects of
the increase on employment have been negligible or even positive. Exactly
what to make of this result is a source of great dispute. Card and Krueger
offered some complex theoretical rationales, but most of their colleagues
are unconvinced; the centrist view is probably that minimum wages "do," in
fact, reduce employment, but that the effects are small and swamped by
other forces.
What is remarkable, however, is how this rather iffy result has been seized
upon by some liberals as a rationale for making large minimum wage
increases a core component of the liberal agenda -- for arguing that living
wages "can play an important role in reversing the 25-year decline in wages
experienced by most working people in America"(as this book's back cover
has it). Clearly these advocates very much want to believe that the price
of labor -- unlike that of gasoline, or Manhattan apartments -- can be set
based on considerations of justice, not supply and demand, without
unpleasant side effects. This will to believe is obvious in this book: The
authors not only take the Card-Krueger results as gospel, but advance a
number of other arguments that just do not hold up under examination.
For example, the authors argue at length that because only a fraction of
the work force in the firms affected by living wage proposals will be
affected, total costs will be increased by only 1 or 2 percent -- and that
as a result, not only will there be no significant reduction in employment,
but the extra cost will be absorbed out of profits rather than passed on in
higher prices. This latter claim is wishful thinking of the first order:
Since when do we think that cost increases are not passed on to customers
if they are small enough? And the idea that employment "of the affected
workers' "will not suffer because the affected wages are only a small part
of costs is a non sequitur at best. Imagine that a new local law required
supermarkets to sell milk at, say, 25 cents a gallon. The loss in revenue
would be only a small fraction of each supermarket's total sales -- but do
you really think that milk would be just as available as before?
They also argue that because there are cases in which companies paying
above-market wages reap offsetting gains in the form of lower turnover and
greater worker loyalty, raising minimum wages will lead to similar gains.
The obvious economist's reply is, if paying higher wages is such a good
idea, why aren't companies doing it voluntarily? But in any case there is
a fundamental flaw in the argument: Surely the benefits of low turnover and
high morale in your work force come not from paying a high wage, but from
paying a high wage "compared with other companies" -- and that is precisely
what mandating an increase in the minimum wage for all companies cannot
accomplish. What makes this an odd oversight is that the book contains a
lengthy and rather well-done critique of attempts by local governments to
create jobs through investment incentives, arguing that they mainly end up
in a zero-sum poaching war; how could the authors have failed to notice the
parallel?
But while there is much that is silly in their book, Pollin and Luce are
diligent and
honest -- and as a result the book carries lessons and implications they
may not have intended. The most interesting section is their estimates of
the impact of living-wage proposals on the budgets of hypothetical families
-- estimates that perhaps give us the clue to what all this is really
about.
Consider, for example, the effects of "Plan Y" (never mind) on the
hypothetical head of a household, currently making $5.43 an hour.
According to their estimates, as long as he or she remained fully employed,
the living-wage law would raise earned income from $10,860 to $14,500 --
and also mandate $2,500 in health coverage. (This is, incidentally, a 57
percent increase in the cost to employers; you have to have a lot of faith
in Card-Krueger not to worry that some jobs might be lost.) According to
their numbers, that family would currently pay less than $900 in taxes
while receiving some $9,700 in benefits such as food stamps, Earned Income
Tax Credit, and health care. Their calculations also show that most of the
gains from the living wage proposal would be offset by reductions in these
other redistributive programs. Indeed, only about one-fifth of the
mandated increase in wages and benefits actually gets manifested in
disposable income; the rest is taken away as benefits decline.
Now to me, at least, the obvious question is, why take this route? Why
increase the cost of labor to employers so sharply, which -- Card/Krueger
notwithstanding -- must pose a significant risk of pricing some workers out
of the market, in order to give those workers so little extra income? Why
not give them the money directly, say, via an increase in the tax credit?
One answer is political: What a shift from income supports to living wage
legislation does is to move the costs of income redistribution off-budget.
And this may be a smart move if you believe that America should do more for
its working poor, but that if it comes down to spending money on-budget it
won't. Indeed, this is a popular view among economists who favor national
minimum-wage increases: They will admit to their colleagues that such
increases are not the best way to help the poor, but argue that it is the
only politically feasible option.
But I suspect there is another, deeper issue here -- namely, that even
without political constraints, advocates of a living wage would not be
satisfied with any plan that relies on after-market redistribution. They
don't want people to "have" a decent income, they want them to "earn" it,
not be dependent on demeaning handouts. Indeed, Pollin and Luce proudly
display their estimates of the increase in the share of disposable income
that is earned, not granted.
In short, what the living wage is really about is not living standards, or
even economics, but morality. Its advocates are basically opposed to the
idea that wages are a market price -- determined by supply and demand, the
same as the price of apples or coal. And it is for that reason, rather
than the practical details, that the broader political movement of which
the demand for a living wage is the leading edge is ultimately doomed to
failure: For the amorality of the market economy is part of its essence,
and cannot be legislated away.
************************************************************************
Living Wage Laws Make Economic Sense:
Response to Paul Krugman
By Robert Pollin
Professor of Economics and
Co-Director, Political Economy Research Institute
University of Massachusetts-Amherst
In his review (September 1998) of The Living Wage: Building A Fair Economy,
my new book with Stephanie Luce, Paul Krugman seeks to discredit the
arguments we make in behalf of living wage legislation. There is much at
stake here. Some form of living wage legislation has been passed in 20
cities over the past four years, and is now being considered in another 50
or so municipalities. The living wage movement thus represents the most
widespread grassroots effort at reversing the sharp 25-year decline in
minimum wages, to a level today, $5.15 an hour, that is fully 30 percent
below its peak of $7.37 (in 1997 dollars) in 1968. But Krugman claims that
our book contains "much that is silly" and, more generally, the living wage
movement is "doomed to fail", because neither we authors nor the broad
living wage movement can get our economics right. In fact, Krugman's
review demonstrates the opposite of what he intends. If we allow that
Krugman's arguments represent the strongest case that living wage opponents
can muster, then living wage supporters can move forward in confidence
that economic logic--if not always political power--is on their side. I
have room here to only briefly address Krugman's main arguments.
1. Will city government budgets necessarily bear the full cost of wage
and benefit increases due to living wage legislation?
Our research showed that most firms holding municipal government
contracts, and thus falling under the terms of a living wage ordinance,
would face a negligible increase in their total costs (on the order of one
percent) once they comply with the living wage laws. We therefore argued
that most affected firms could readily absorb these small costs rather than
passing them on to city budgets through winning more expensive contracts.
This is a crucial point, because it implies, for example, that workers in
Los Angeles could get a total of $50 million in annual wage increases but
that the city's budget need increase by only a small fraction of that total.
Krugman, however, calls this "wishful thinking of the highest order,"
stating that firms will always pass along their added costs to customers,
even when they are small. Of course firms will try to pass on these costs.
But whether they succeed will depend on the competitive environment in
which they operate. If firms are bidding competitively for city contracts,
city governments need not cave in to business demands for better contract
terms to cover their living wage costs. The firms can either absorb a one
percent cost increase to win a city contract or relinquish the contract to
a competitor. It is notable that in both Baltimore and Los Angeles,
studies show that the passage of the living wage ordinance has had no
significant impact on post-living wage contract bidding patterns.
2. Will living wage ordinances, like all minimum wage laws, only produce
unemployment among low-wage worker?
Krugman rehashes what he terms the standard Econ 101 argument that when
you raise the price of anything (like low-wage labor), demand must fall
(businesses hire fewer low-wage workers). But even Krugman acknowledges,
if only as an aside, the qualifying feature of this law, which is that it
holds only when all else is assumed constant. In fact, in the real world,
all else is rarely constant. Most important, the impact on jobs of
fluctuations in the demand for goods and services produced in the region
will overwhelm any effect stemming from a municipal living wage law. As
we argue in the book, when demand for goods and services is strong,
unemployment will be low among low-wage workers, regardless of whether
cities have municipal living wage laws. By the same token, jobs will dry
up when demand for products is falling, as during a recession, regardless
of whether a city has passed a municipal living wage law.
But what if, holding overall demand for jobs constant, businesses decide
to replace the low-wage workers they have with other workers they deem are
more qualified for the higher pay? Even under such a worst-case scenario,
there would be no net loss of job opportunities, since the laid off workers
could still fill the jobs opened up by the workers who took their living
wage jobs. This certainly would hold under the living wage laws we are
examining, where, for better or worse, these laws affect only a tiny
fraction of the available low-wage jobs. In Los Angeles County, for
example, the living wage law will bring raises to 7-10,000 workers at most,
while there are 2.4 million people earning less than the $7.25 living wage
minimum.
3. Firms will not experience productivity-enhancing gains in morale
through paying living wages, since all firms will be paying these wages.
Krugman makes this argument against us, but his reasoning is haphazard.
First, Krugman misses the fact noted above that the living wage ordinances
now on the books will affect only a small pocket of firms. Workers in
these firms will indeed enjoy privileged conditions. Even by Krugman's
logic, therefore, the raises these workers receive will create incentives
for them to raise their productivity through, for example, reducing
turnover and absenteeism.
But there is a more fundamental point. Krugman is claiming that workers
respond positively to being treated well on the job only if they think they
are being treated better than workers at other job sites. There may be an
element of truth to this, but only to the extent that one accepts, with
Krugman, a narrow, ego-centric view of what motivates people at work. Do
workers respond positively to genuine acts of respect and solidarity--like
paying decent wages and benefits and maintaining a healthy workplace--on
their own terms, or do they dismiss such acts as long as their perception
is that other workers at other jobs are also treated in the same favorable
manner? Research to date cannot provide a definitive answer. At best
then, Krugram is badly overreaching, especially given that, in any case,
living wage workers are relatively better off than their counterparts at
other firms.
4. Why not let the market rip, allowing income disparities to arise where
they may, but then alleviate these disparities through government transfer
payments?
In making such an argument, Krugman dismisses the distinction we draw
between a dollar of income earned by a working person and a dollar received
through a government program to support the poor. What came through
clearly in the protracted debate in the U.S. over welfare reform was that,
given the choice, the vast majority of people in this country would much
prefer to work for a decent wage than to receive government transfer
payments. Krugman would deny people their preference, since, in his view,
the market could not rip with sufficient force when a living wage is
legally mandated. But taxing market winners to cover transfer payments to
market losers also distorts market outcomes. Krugman never explains why
interfering with the market through government transfers is, overall, more
just and efficient than allowing people to earn a living wage. In this
context, we must keep in mind how, in the absence of a living wage minimum,
government transfers to the poor benefit businesses. They do so because
they allow businesses to pay sub-poverty wages while shifting onto the
public the costs of alleviating the hardships of even those families which
include full-time workers.
5. Krugman concludes, "The amorality of the market economy is part of its
essence, and cannot be legislated away."
Economists from Adam Smith onward have recognized that market
economies--dominated as they are by greed and competition--can survive over
a sustained period of time only if they are buttressed by social
institutions that also support our inclinations toward solidarity and
reciprocity (Russia today being a good example of how well market
economies perform absent such institutions). If we really took Krugman
seriously here, his logic would mean not only abolishing municipal living
wage ordinances but to similarly eliminate minimum wage, child labor and
even slave labor laws. What are these if not a series of
attempts--successful in fact, as far as they have gone--at "legislating
away" the market's inherent amorality? True, Krugman's logic would still
provide government transfer payments to the losers in these amoral market
situations. This means, for example, that slaves could still be guaranteed
adequate sustenance through food stamps, if not from their owners.
When the national minimum wage was at its peak of $7.37 in 1968, it had
become a reasonably effective vehicle for eliminating poverty among people
who worked full-time while trying to raise a family. It is unfortunate
that, over the past generation, the country has abandoned this achievement
even though our economy is now 50 percent more productive than in 1968, and
that economists such as Krugman so loosely invoke "economic laws" to
justify our dramatic steps backward.
--Boundary_(ID_PIuqmUc+sNarSplKTUOiKA)
name="Krugman review and my response.doc"
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--Boundary_(ID_PIuqmUc+sNarSplKTUOiKA)
********************************************
Robert Pollin
Department of Economics
Univesity of Massachusetts-Amherst
Amherst, MA 01002
(413) 577-0126 (office); (413) 545-2921 (fax)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]; (413) 549-8796 (home)
--Boundary_(ID_PIuqmUc+sNarSplKTUOiKA)--
