There's a huge literature on this topic, which I don't have time to get
into right now. (I summarized and critiqued the first wave of it in a
report I wrote to the Labor Dept. back in 1995.) All I will say right
now is that the question has generally been ill-posed. (1) It looks for
absolute job loss, when the correct measure, in labor market terms, is
the impact of marginal decreases in demand on wages. See also Dani
Rodrik on this. (2) It misses entirely the political-economic
mechanism, through which pressures on firms' investment decisions and
countries' current accounts are translated into business-friendly
economic policies. Rodrik sort of gets this. (3) On a technical level,
every study I've seen makes neoclassical assumptions concerning the
effects of international trade, market clearing, marginal productivity
pricing, etc. that effectively beg the question.
I've already gone on too long. Student papers to read.
Peter Dorman
