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BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21, 1999
Although the economic expansion will continue at least through 2000, growth
will slow, the National Association of Home Builders predicts. ... After 4
years of real gross domestic product annual average gains of 3.4 percent or
greater, GDP will gain an inflation-adjusted 2.2 percent in 1999, the group
says. The association's chief economist indicates that strong consumer
confidence and low unemployment will allow the economic expansion to
continue. Unemployment will remain low, but the jobless rate will creep up
from March's 29-year low of 4.2 percent to 4.6 percent in the second half of
2000, according to the forecast. Payroll employment increased at a rapid
2.6 percent rate in 1998. This growth has already slowed and will average
1.9 percent in 1999 and 1.3 percent in 2000. ... (Daily Labor Report, page
A-2).
The rate of inflation, as measured by the CPI, is likely to jump this year,
from the exceedingly comfortable 1.6 percent to more than 2 percent. That
would not constitute a surge. But the rate of increase has shrunk for 3
straight years. And in annual terms, the inflation rate has risen only twice
in the last 8 years. The possibility that such numbers might upset the
stock and bond markets on the days they are reported led Goldman, Sachs &
Company to warn clients recently that investors in the coming months should
be wary of the "noise" in the CPI and the related PPI. Still, there is not
reason to worry too much about these numbers. The main culprit is higher
oil prices, and the inflation projections are based on the assumption that
these prices will stick, not a sure thing. Even if they do, neither the
Federal Reserve nor the bond market will get too upset if that's the only
problem, as it is not considered big enough to alter the long-term outlook
for inflation. ... ("Market Place" by Jonathan Fuerbringer, New York Times,
page C12).
The United States will remain the well-tuned engine of an otherwise
sputtering world economy in 1999, although parts of Asia show encouraging
signs of recovery from the trauma of the past 20 months, the International
Monetary Fund said in its semiannual World Economic Outlook. ... (Wall
Street Journal, page A2)_____The IMF forecast that global growth would pick
up to 3.4 percent next year, from 2.3 percent in 1999. But it warned that
risks remained, including the danger of a stock market crash in the U.S.
U.S. growth is projected to slow to 3.3 percent this year and 2.2 percent in
2000, from 3.9 percent in 1998. The IMF said the slowdown was needed to
prevent the U.S. economy from overheating. ... (USA Today, page 1B).
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services leapt 15.6 percent to a record
in February, powered by stronger-than-expected consumer spending on imported
goods, the Commerce Department reports. ... (Daily Labor Report, page
D-1)_____The magnitude of the increase in the trade gap caught analysts by
surprise, as did the cause. Until recently, the trade deficit has worsened
mainly because of a sharp drop in exports to Japan and other countries
stricken by the global financial crisis. In February, the chief factor was
a surge in imports, mainly from Western Europe, Canada, and Mexico. ...
(Washington Post, page E1)_____The nation's trade deficit jumped
unexpectedly to previously unheard of levels in February, as consumers
bought growing quantities of imports and declining demand from abroad hurt
exporters. Because demand for American-made goods has been diminished by
weakness in other countries, the growing trade deficit is hurting many
manufacturers and farmers in the United States and slowing growth.
Economists said declining exports appear to have slowed the economy's
expansion to about a 3 percent annual rate in the first 3 months of the year
from twice that in last year's fourth quarter. ... (New York Times, page
C1)_____The U.S. trade deficit was swollen by imports of automobiles. While
surprised at February's deficit, economists still maintained that the
expanding trade deficit has its root in strong growth in the United States
coupled with anemic growth around the rest of the world. ... (Wall Street
Journal, page A2).
Amid a tightening labor market, employers are finding that "quality of life"
incentives, such as flexible work schedules, are more effective for keeping
valuable workers than cash payoffs, according to a survey of senior human
resource executives. The survey was released at the American Management
Association annual conference. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-3).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Lost-Worktime Injuries and Illnesses: Characteristics
and Resulting Time Away from Work, 1997
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