BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2000
RELEASED TODAY: "2001 RELEASE SCHEDULE FOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS MAJOR
ECONOMIC INDICATORS" includes the names, dates of release, and the release
times for each scheduled BLS news release over the coming year.
__The nation's private industry employers created only 137,000 new jobs in
October, a substantially smaller number than the average for the first 8
months of this year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The
civilian unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent last month, marking
the 13th consecutive month that it has remained in the narrow range of 3.9
percent and 4.0 percent. Analysts say the modest October gain in nonfarm
payroll employment, coupled with other aspects of the jobs report, provides
another piece of convincing evidence that the economy has shifted to a
moderate rate of expansion. Manufacturing remained weak, and some services
industries added few if any jobs during October. Calling the report one of
"moderate" growth, BLS Commissioner Katharine Abraham said the October
employment gain was significantly lower than the average for earlier this
year. ... (Pam Ginsbach in Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Commissioner's
statement, page E-1).
__The nation's unemployment rate remained at its 30-year low of 3.9 percent
in October. But the report also provided further evidence that the U.S.
economic growth has moderated. The report showed that unemployment among
persons of Hispanic origin fell last month 0.6 percentage point to 5
percent, the lowest level since separate figures for the group were first
calculated in 1973. Joblessness among adult women dipped to 3.4 percent
from 3.5 percent, reaching the lowest level for women since 1953. Among the
signs pointing to slower economic growth in the report was the modest
increase in the number of workers on employers' payrolls, which rose by
137,000. The average monthly gain during the past 3 months -- not counting
the layoff of temporary workers hired to conduct the decennial census -- has
been only 150,000. That's down from an average of 190,000 in the first half
of the year and from about 229,000 in 1999. In addition, the length of the
average workweek at private firms ticked down by 6 minutes. ... (John M.
Berry in Washington Post, Nov. 4, page E1).
__The unemployment rate remained at a 30-year low last month, even as
evidence mounted that the nation's economic growth is slowing. American
companies [private] continue to add jobs, employing 117,000 more people in
October than in September. But that increase was significantly lower than
during the first half of this year or during the previous 3 years. Combined
with other reports this week that showed falling consumer confidence and
slowing growth in productivity and retail sales, the jobs data suggest that
the Federal Reserve will almost certainly not raise interest rates at either
of its two remaining meetings this year, economists said. ... Still, the
10-year economic boom, the longest in United States history, shows little
evidence of ending. ... Construction companies gave the nation's payrolls
the biggest lift last month, adding 34,000 jobs. The recent decline in
mortgage rates and an unusually dry month of October probably increased the
amount of homebuilding, said Thomas Nardone, head of the government division
that compiles the employment report. ... (David Leonhardt in New York
Times, Nov. 4, page B1).
__The economic nirvana of rapid growth and poky inflation could soon give
way to a period of slower growth and rising inflation. The unemployment
rate remained at a 30-year low last month amid signs that the economy is
slowing. Economists expressed some concern that the tight labor market may
have begun driving up wages and benefits and that companies might end up
boosting prices. Sharp increases in productivity get much of the credit for
keeping inflation under wraps, but last week's report showed productivity
growth slowing and labor costs rising. ... (Nicholas Kulish and Steve
Liesman in Wall Street Journal, page A2).
__Uneasy businesses avoid layoffs and keep labor pools filled. ... Friday's
labor statistics saw the unemployment rate holding at its 30-year low of 3.9
percent, and other measurements signal little loosening in the labor market.
The Federal Reserve's "beige book" survey last week reported that "labor
markets remain stretched" nationwide. A monthly survey by the National
Federation of Independent Business found that 32 percent of its members had
job openings they couldn't fill in October, down only marginally from the
record 35 percent set in August. What's going on? Economists say
joblessness typically lags the economy, getting better for a while when the
economy is cooling off. ... "It won't be until 6 months from the slowdown
that unemployment will start to rise," says the chief economist at Tucker
Anthony. "A lot of employers are deferring their decisions to let people go
because they don't want to get caught again," says John Challenger, chief
executive officer of the job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
... "I'm surprised we haven't seen more slowdown in employment," says Ralph
Kauffman, who monitors nonmanufacturing business for the National
Association of Purchasing Management. ... (George Hager in USA Today, page
1B).
The Wall Street Journal's feature "Tracking the Economy (page A18) forecasts
that the Producer Price Index for October, to be released Thursday, will
show an increase of 0.2 percent and that the PPI core index will be up 0.1
percent. The import price index, due out on Wednesday, is forecast to be up
0.2 percent.
Nonmanufacturing business activity grew at a slower pace in October than
during the previous month, as businesses reported their inventories growing
faster than new orders, the National Association of Purchasing Management
reports. The Tempe, Ariz.-based organization's nonmanufacturing business
activity index declined 4.0 percentage points to 58 percent in October
because of the slower growth, but purchasing managers continue to be mostly
positive about the economy. NAPM said an index reading above 50 percent
indicates that the nonmanufacturing economy generally is expanding. While
new order growth generally was slowing, purchasers reported that the prices
they were paying for materials and services in October had grown at a
slightly faster rate. Twenty-six percent of purchasing managers said they
had paid higher prices for materials and services in October, compared with
only 4 percent who reported paying less. The industries reporting the
highest rate of price increases in October were mining, construction,
insurance, public administration, and health services. Some of the reason
for the price increases in those industries may be related to the tightness
in the labor market, which has driven up wages. ... (Daily Labor Report,
page A-6).
About 33,000 information technology employees in the federal government will
receive pay increases ranging from 7 to 33 percent in a move designed to
make the federal civil service more competitive in the labor market for
skilled IT workers, the Office of Personnel Management announces. According
to OPM, the new pay rates for entry- and developmental-level IT workers will
be effective in January 2001, which is when federal general schedule workers
are expected to receive a 3.7 percent pay increase. ... Computer
specialists, computer engineers, and computer scientists will benefit from
OPM's action to increase pay, OPM's associate director for workforce
compensation and performance said in a memo to federal human resource
directors. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-11).
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