Ian, the results of the Romer study should not be surprising. After all, the
Fed is a major actor in determining the outcome of the economy. I would expect
that the steel industry would do better in predicting future short run
investments in steel than the Fed would because the steel industry has control
over its own investments.
The other problem with commercial forecasters is that I think that they have a
tendency not to make predictions of major changes, or at least not being the
first to do so -- sort of like Keynes' impression of bankers who, if they must
fail, take pains to do so conventionally.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
