Eugene Coyle wrote:
>They should have listened to Rob Schaap!!!!
Starting when?
Doug
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From: Rob Schaap
Subject: Re: Re: U.S.Monetary Policy
Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2000 04:14:35 -0800
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Evening all,
If Greenspan were a horse (and you chose to race him rather than consign him
to the knacker's yard), would you not see in the formguide years of attempts
to regulate those animal spirits out there through hints and empty warnings?
A deliberate leakage is my bet here. And one with all the effect of that
'irrational exuberance' line. And the longer he waits, the longer debt
patterns have to get sillier, the longer the national accounts have to get
out of whack, the more day traders are gonna get took, and the harder it
becomes to try a gutsy interest rate hike.
Anyway, if the problem is daft values on the NASDAQ rather than on the DJI,
a gutsy hike might slow investment and production whilst leaving the problem
sector unphased - the worst of both worlds. And if Greenspan is actually
irrelevant to the mood of NASDAQ punters, then we can but wait for an
'external shock' to pop the bubble (I've been wondering if a flurry of
bankruptcies in Japan - which were announced the other day to be 50% up
within a quarter's contraction of 1.4% - might see structurally meaningful
money desert Wall St to fill in some cracks at home) and start a debt crunch
of pretty incalculable magnitude.
That make sense?
Cheers,
Rob.
>Dunno, but there's a piece in the current Fortune claiming that Alan
>G. really really wants the stock mania to stop, so rates may rise
>more and more quickly than anyone ever knew. Hard to tell whether
>this is well-leaked or just the reporter's speculation though.
>
>Doug
>
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Has anybody anywhere calculated how much inflation would rise if corps.
tried to push their debt onto consumers or other corps through higher
prices, given how easy it'll be to halt wage increases [assuming US workers
may fall for that same old explanatory trick and/or the energy price
explanation]?
Ian
