BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 22, 2001
__Overall union membership fell last year, says the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, but unions gained among black female workers. Their union
membership rose to 15.4 percent from 14.4 percent in 1999 (Wall Street
Journal's "Work Week" feature, page A1).
__The percentage of American workers belonging to unions fell last year to
13.5 percent, its lowest point in 6 decades. In releasing its survey of
union membership last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also found that
the number of union members declined by 200,000 last year to 16.3 million, a
discouraging development for the labor movement at a time it is straining to
reverse the decline. Economists offered several explanations for the
decline, including retirements by union members, layoffs of many unionized
workers because of foreign competition, and the failure of unions to
organize enough additional members to offset such losses. ... (New York
Times, Jan. 21, page 18).
Payroll employment, contends economist Ed Hyman of ISI Group, investment
advisers, is probably a lot weaker than reported. That's because BLS adds a
"plug factor" -- an estimate of those hired by new businesses that aren't
yet in its data base, to the job numbers derived from its survey of
employers. Since this estimate is based on past history (in this case, the
hefty final readings for last year), it tends to exaggerate job gains when
the economy enters a slowdown. To buttress his claim, Hyman points out that
employment based on the Labor Department's other survey, its canvass of
households, has hardly changed since April, while unemployment insurance
claims have surged higher. The plug factor has added an average 162,000
jobs to the monthly payroll count since April, converting what would have
been an average decline of 70,000 in private sector jobs into an average
reported monthly gain of 92,000. By comparison, private sector payrolls
over-the-prior 8 months posted an average monthly increase of 238,000. ...
(Business Week, Jan. 22, page 30).
Softening confidence in the economy and the resulting weakness in demand for
manufactured goods led the index of leading economic indicators down about
0.6 percent in December, according to a report by the Conference Board.
While the decline may be misconstrued as evidence of a sharp downturn in the
economy, a Conference Board economist said much of the slide was the result
of a reconfiguring of the index to place greater emphasis on the
month-to-month changes. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1)_____The index of
leading economic indicators fell for a third consecutive month in December,
indicating that further interest rate cuts may come in the near future. The
December report also reflects annual benchmark revisions going back to 1959.
... (New York Times, page C13)_____Although the rule of thumb is that three
consecutive declines in the index of leading indicators signal the economy
is sinking into a recession, the Conference Board said the numbers remained
above the level that indicates the economy is contracting. ... (Wall Street
Journal, page A9).
Only 15 percent of 645 employers surveyed plan job cuts this year, compared
with 14 percent in a similar survey last year, says consulting firm William
M. Mercer Inc., New York. Plans for pay increases also are similar to last
year's, the survey shows (Wall Street Journal, "Work Week" column, page A1).
Small employers are losing their ability to attract and retain employees
coming from large businesses because of the instability of the stock market
and pressure from higher energy and health benefits costs, according to a
report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Many dot-com firms are now
struggling to stay in business and employees who received stock options are
now finding them worthless, Challenger said. ... (Daily Labor Report, page
A-5).
Employers concerned about an economic downturn are starting to take away the
perks long showered on workers, says USA Today (page 4B). Say goodbye to
signing bonuses, office back rubs, and free gourmet lunches. Some perks are
expected to remain around as long as the labor market stays tight, but the
cutbacks that have arrived are a marked shift from the profligate spending
of just a few months ago.
Finding enough substitute teachers to fill classrooms has become a daily
struggle for many school administrators. Some school districts are raising
pay for substitutes -- which can often be as low as $50 a day -- and
lowering the requirements. Substitutes can have as little as 30 hours of
any type of college credit. Even then, some districts regularly resort to
breaking apart classes and jamming students in with others that do have
teachers. Some districts are using office staff to baby-sit classrooms,
which would have been unthinkable a few years ago . "Teacher absenteeism is
rising and the substitute pool is shrinking, so this is very much a crisis,"
says the director of the Substitute Teaching Institute at Utah State
University. ... (Wall Street Journal, page B1).
A recent study in "The Academy of Management Journal" finds that the
job-hopping strategy pays off far more for white males than for females or
minorities. The study by George F. Dreher of Indiana University and Taylor
H. Cox Jr. of the University of Michigan drew on a survey of 700 MBAs in
their late 30s working full time for a variety of businesses in the early
1990s. Some 52 percent were white males, 25 percent white and minority
females, and 23 percent minority males, of which 70 percent were African
Americans. Adjusting for job tenure and other factors, the researchers
found that, among white men, those who had jumped ship at least once earned
nearly $25,000 more than those who stayed put. By contrast, job-hopping
minority men earned only $9,000 more than their less mobile peers, minority
women gained a mere $5,000 and white women averaged just $10,000 more. ...
(Business Week, Jan. 22, page 30).
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