BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2001
In 1995, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicted that 5 of the 10 fastest
growing occupations over the coming decade -- including 2 of the top 3 --
would be in health care. The bureau recently revised those projections for
the years 1998 to 2008, and health care has dropped out of the top five.
Now every one of the five fastest growing jobs will be computer related, the
bureau says, from computer engineers (No. 1) to desktop publishing
specialists (No. 5). Mike Pilot, an economist in the bureau's Office of
Employment Projections, says the explosive growth of the Internet, which was
barely a blip on the employment radar screen back in the mid-90s, was a
significant factor in reshaping the top 10. Part of the change has to do
with the increasing number of computer-related job classifications, another
consequence of the growth of the industry. For example, computer support
specialists and database administrators, No. 2 and No. 4, respectively, were
not tracked separately in 1994. Health care will remain a growth industry.
Retail service occupations like sales clerks and cashiers, already among the
largest job categories, will also grow strongly. ... Included with the
article is a half page of tables showing the fastest growing occupations,
those gaining the most workers, those declining the fastest, those losing
the most workers. The fastest growing occupations, by states, are also
shown. (Dylan Loeb McClain in New York Times, page E9).
Total private average weekly hours worked in December, at 34.1, was the
lowest since January 1996, according to seasonally adjusted data from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" column,
page 1).
First came falling stock prices. Then a dramatic slowdown in business
profits and investment. And now come the layoffs, says Steven Pearlstein in
The Washington Post (page A1). Yesterday it was two more blue-chip US
manufacturers: payroll reductions of 26,000 at DaimlerChrysler and 4,000 at
Xerox. That followed last week's announcement of thousands more from Lucent,
WorldCom, Sara Lee, J.C. Penney, and the new AOL Time Warner. General
Motors, Ford, Aetna, Motorola, Gillette, Gateway, and Chase Manhattan have
also announced cuts. Even General Electric Co., long considered the world's
best-managed company, warned last month that it could eliminate as many as
60,000 positions this year as it closes down its long-troubled Montgomery
Ward stores, completes its merger with Honeywell, and adjusts to the slowing
economy. ... Economists warn that the numbers should be viewed in context.
In most instances, much of the reductions are spread over months and even
years and handled through early retirements and attrition. And even
laid-off workers are apt to receive continuing income support or severance
payments. Furthermore, in an economy of 135 million workers where 275,000
Americans each week lose their jobs involuntarily, even a couple of months
of 150,000 layoffs will add only 0.2 percentage points to an unemployment
rate that still hovers around its lowest point in a generation. ...
Overall, forecasters now predict that, as a result of layoffs, hiring
freezes, and a slowdown in hiring, the unemployment rate will hit 4.5
percent or 5 percent by the end of this year, up from the current 4 percent.
In statistical terms, that would still be relatively low by historical
standards. In human terms, that would mean 500,000 to 1 million more
Americans without jobs.
Internet firms announced plans to lay off a record 12,828 workers in
January, as more dot-com businesses are under pressure to improve
performance, according to a report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray &
Christmas. Internet technology-related firms say they plan to cut 3,132
jobs in January, and firms providing professional services to Internet firms
say they would cut 2,652 jobs during the month. Challenger said that
although many of the first Internet firms to report job cuts were retailing
firms, recent data suggest that businesses designed to build and maintain
the technological elements of the Internet also are beginning to feel the
effects of the slowdown. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-2).
Economic growth has ground nearly to a halt, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan said last week. The 2000 holiday shopping season was the weakest
in a decade. Announcements of layoffs reached their highest level last
month in at least 7 years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a job
placement firm in Chicago. Amid all the grimness, the December unemployment
rate sat at 4 percent, only a tenth of a percentage point above its lowest
level in 30 years. For now, while the jobless rate holds steady, the
workweek is shrinking more quickly than it did at the start of the 1990-91
recession. ... In part, the apparent contradiction reflects nothing more
than timing. The low unemployment rate gives a picture of where the economy
has been, not where it is going, and the number can distort reality during
turning points in the economic cycle. ... For now, the workweek is
shrinking more quickly than it did at the start of the 1990-91 recession.
In December, production employees -- about four-fifths of the work force --
logged almost 30 fewer minutes per week on average than they had in June.
In the months leading up to the last recession, by contrast, weekly hours
fell by half that amount, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Similarly, the number of people who want full-time work but can find only
part-time jobs has risen n recent months, and the number of temporary
workers has dropped. ... (David Leonhardt in New York Times, page E1).
BLS is quoted in an article, "The Permanent Stopgap in Staffing Is Still a
Temp": Most temporary agency workers are clerks, laborers, or manufacturing
workers. Temps are more likely than permanent workers to be women, under
25, high school dropouts, and black or Hispanic, according to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. Nearly three-fifths prefer not to work for a temp agency
because they would rather have full-time employment. ... (New York Times,
page E8).
Labor softness means workers may not work as much as they would like,
according to The Wall Street Journal's "Work Week" feature (page A1). One
measure of underemployment adds two groups to the unemployed: discouraged
workers, who think no jobs exist for them, and involuntary part timers, who
can't find full-time work. Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic
Policy Institute, points to labor data that show a 6-year drop in
underemployment but a slight rise last year leading to a 7.3 percent rate
among males. The numbers, he says, might indicate weakening demand for
less-skilled workers. ...
The world's top business, economic, and political leaders do not think the
U.S. economy has slipped into recession or will do so this year. And many
expect the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates, not only
Wednesday-- after its 2-day meeting -- but throughout the year. The general
consensus among the 3,000 participants at the annual World Economic Forum in
Switzerland is that the U.S. economy will remain sluggish or stalled through
the first half of this year. After that, they expect a bounce back to a 2.5
percent or 3 percent annual rate of growth. They do not see the U.S.
economy pulling the rest of the world into a downward spin. ... (USA Today,
Jan. 29, page 1B).
Welfare reform has made unemployment insurance an important part of the
social safety net. If this traditionally at-risk group loses jobs to
layoffs, this insurance will become even more important, says Harry J.
Holzer, a Georgetown University professor and Urban Institute visiting
fellow. ... Different state requirements could leave many, like part
timers, in the lurch, however. ... (Wall Street Journal, "Work Week"
feature, page A1).
The all-settlements weighted average first-year wage increase in agreements
reported in 2000 was 3.8 percent, compared with 3.2 percent in 1999,
according to data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs. ... (Daily
Labor Report, page D-1).
A Towers Perrin survey finds large employers expect the cost of health
benefit plans will increase about 13 percent on the average in 2001. Towers
Perrin said the anticipated cost hike will make the second consecutive year
in which large employers will experience double-digit health cost increases.
The increase also is the highest percentage point hike since the consulting
firm began conducting the survey more than a decade ago. ... (Daily Labor
Report, page A-10).
The educational attainment of young adults in the U.S. continues to edge
higher, reports the Census Bureau. Based on early 2000 survey data, some 88
percent of 25- to 29-year-olds are high school graduates, the same as last
year, but up from 86 percent in 1995. Meanwhile, the share of young adults
with at least a bachelor's degree hit 29 percent, the highest level
recorded. Only a decade earlier, just 23 percent were college grads. Young
adults do exhibit significant differences by sex and race. At last count,
some 61 percent of females age 25 to 29 had attended some college, compared
with 55 percent of males; and 30 percent of women had four-year degrees, vs.
28 percent of men. Among young whites, 64 percent had some college courses
under their belt, vs. 51 percent of African Americans. Nearly 34 percent
had a college degree, vs. just 15 percent of young blacks. The most highly
educated are young Asians and Pacific Islanders. As of early 1999, 78
percent had attended college and 51 percent had earned bachelor's degrees
(Business Week, Feb. 5, page 30).
Business Week (Feb. 5, page 128) makes these predictions based on the S&P
survey: Nonfarm payrolls likely added 85,000 jobs in January, after a gain
of 105,000 in December. The unemployment rate probably rose to 4.1 percent
from 4 percent. The figures are due out Friday.
By unanimous consent, Senate confirms Elaine Chao as Labor Secretary. ...
(Daily Labor Report, page AA-1; Washington Post, page A2; USA Today, page
6A)
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: December
2000
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