> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2001:
>
> RELEASED TODAY: "State and Regional Unemployment, 2000 Annual Averages",
> indicates that unemployment rates decreased in 33 states and the District
> of Columbia from 1999 to 2000. Three of the four regions and seven of the
> nine geographic divisions recorded rate declines in annual average
> unemployment. The U.S. jobless rate decreased from 4.2 percent to 4.0
> percent over the year. Additionally, employment to population ratios
> increased in a majority of states, with the national ratio increasing to a
> record high of 64.5 percent.
>
> During the fourth quarter of last year, both the number of mass layoff
> events and the number of persons involved rose sharply compared with a
> year earlier, according to figures released by the Labor Department's
> Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite the upturn at year's end, BLS
> reported that for all of 2000 the number of extended mass layoffs and the
> workers affected were lower than in any year since 1995. Layoffs did not
> begin to mount until toward the end of last year, as the economic slowdown
> prompted many employers to trim their workforces (Daily Labor Report, page
> D-4).
>
> The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8 percent in January as
> the average manufacturing workweek grew longer and the amount of money
> available to businesses and consumers increased, the Conference Board
> reports. The increase in January reverses the 0.5 percent decline
> experienced in December, as six of the seven indicators that had been down
> in December turned positive in January. A Conference Board economist said
> although the three consecutive declines in the index met the first test of
> proving an economic slowdown, the second test -- an annualized decline of
> at least 3.5 percent over a 6-month time frame -- still has not been met.
> "With the 0.8 percent rise in January, the overall signal remains one of
> moderation in the pace of economic activity with no recession looming on
> the horizon," the economist said. A key factor influencing the increase
> of the leading index in January was the $38 billion gain in the money
> supply. Also supporting the increase in the index was a 0.5 hour increase
> in the average workweek of manufacturing workers to 40.9 hours and a 7.7
> percent decline in the average number of weekly initial claims for
> unemployment insurance to 328,200, the Conference Board said. Consumer
> confidence, however, weighed on the index as it continued its decline for
> the sixth consecutive month (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
>
> Analysts today largely dismissed a rise in a key gauge of US economic
> activity last month as a temporary bounce in a troubled economy. The New
> York-based Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators
> rose 0.8 percent, to 109.4, in January, suggesting the economy is steering
> clear of a recession. But economists said the uptick is probably just a
> rebound in business activity after a slowdown in November and December
> prompted in part by bitterly cold weather and two interest rate reductions
> ( Washington Post, page E4).
>
> An important forecasting gauge for the economy rose substantially after
> three consecutive months of steady decline, indicating that the economy is
> cooling off rather than tipping into a full-fledged recession. The
> Conference Board said the index of leading economic indicators edged up
> 0.8 percent in January, after dropping 0.5 percent the month before
> (Reuters in The New York Times, page C12).
>
> In one encouraging sign for the U.S. economy, the index of leading
> economic indicators jumped 0.8 percent in January, its first increase in 4
> months and its biggest rise in more than 2 years (Greg Ip in The Wall
> Street Journal, page A2).
>
> Initial claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance
> benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000 in the week ended
> February 17, according to the Employment and Training Administration of
> the Department of Labor. Revised data indicate that new claims for the
> week ended February 10 stood at 344,000. "Claims are expected to remain
> high as announced corporate layoffs in December and January set a new
> 2-month record," a Merrill Lynch economist says (Daily Labor Report, page
> D-2; The Wall Street Journal, page A9).
>
> Lump-sum bonus payment provisions were found in 12 percent of
> nonconstruction contracts negotiated in 2000, according to an analysis by
> the Bureau of National Affairs of 735 collective bargaining agreements
> that together cover more than 908,000 workers. Fifteen percent of
> agreements analyzed in 1999 and 17 percent in 1998 also included lump-sum
> provisions. All three years are below the high level of 36 percent
> tallied in 1988. Construction contracts were excluded because none
> contained lump-sum pay provisions. Further, holiday, vacation, and other
> such bonuses were not included in the analysis. The weighted average
> first-year wage increase in all nonconstruction settlements reported in
> 2000 was 3.7 percent, and the median increase was 3.3 percent. In
> settlements with lump-sum payments, the weighted average increase was 2.9
> percent, and the median increase was 2.2 percent. Agreements without lump
> sums provided a weighted average first-year increase of 3.6 percent and a
> median increase of 3.1 percent (Daily Labor Report, page D-12).
>
> The Construction Labor Research Council bargaining outlook predicts the
> average wage-benefit increase for unionized construction workers in 2001
> will likely stay close to the 3.8 percent pattern set in the previous year
> (Daily Labor Report, page A-4).
>
> The Conference Board's help-wanted advertising index declined by 3
> percentage points to 76 percent in January from 79 percent during
> December. The help-wanted ads index is down by 13 percentage points from a
> year earlier, when the reading was 89 percent....Employment figures
> reported by BLS showed that nonfarm payrolls grew substantially in
> January, although the gain in December was revised downward to only
> 19,000. Payrolls have expanded much more slowly in recent months than
> during the first half of 2000. BLS is scheduled to release February
> employment and unemployment data on March 9 (Daily Labor Report, page
> A-7).
>
> Probably more than any other state, North Carolina has been shaken by a
> drain of low-wage factory jobs overseas in the last 5 years. One by one,
> the pillars on which the state's economy was built 20 years ago --
> textiles, furniture, apparel -- have begun to fall to foreign competition,
> and its growing high-tech centers are usually out of the reach of laid-off
> workers....The state's job growth continues, but that growth is
> significantly slower than it was, and unemployment, while low, is
> beginning to edge up. The 4 percent jobless rate in December was the
> highest in more than four years and the first since 1982 that was as high
> as the nation's. (New York Times, page A11).
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