> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 12, 2001:
>
> RELEASED TODAY: The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged down
> 0.1 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
> reports. This decline followed a 0.1 percent rise in February and a 1.1
> percent advance in January. The index for finished goods other than foods
> and energy edged up 0.1 percent in March, following a 0.3 percent decrease
> in the prior month. Prices received by producers of intermediate goods
> fell 0.2 percent in March, following a 0.1 percent decrease in the prior
> month. The crude goods index declined 1.7 percent, after dropping 14.2
> percent in February.
>
> Declines in prices for imported petroleum products and industrial supplies
> led the import price index down 1.6 percent in March, the Bureau of Labor
> Statistics reports. Prices for the volatile petroleum imports segment of
> the index tumbled 5.9 percent during the month. Finished petroleum
> product import prices led the decline, falling 8.8 percent in March, while
> crude petroleum import prices fell 5.1 percent. Export prices also
> declined in March, falling 0.1 percent on weakness in the market for
> industrial supplies, particularly nonferrous metals prices, which fell 1.5
> percent. An economist at Nomura Securities in New York says "The fact
> that both import and export prices are down suggests there is a slowdown
> in the world economy. With conditions this weak, producers are going to
> grow more concerned about pricing goods competitively in order to sell
> them quickly" (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
>
> Prices of goods imported into the United States fell more in March than in
> any month since December 1992, as the cost of petroleum, steel and paper
> declined. Cheaper imports and a dollar that has risen more than 5 percent
> since the middle of last year have made it difficult for American
> companies to raise prices. That is a green light for Federal Reserve
> policy makers to reduce interest rates to bolster the economy. The import
> prices report is the first of three measures of inflation for March. The
> other two are the producer price index and the consumer price index
> (Bloomberg News in The New York Times, page C4).
>
> Producer prices of finished goods likely rose just 0.1% in March. Core
> prices, which exclude food and energy, also likely rose by a slim 0.1%
> last month. With warmer weather, natural gas prices have fallen. Petroleum
> and gasoline prices may soon rise, however, as OPEC lowers output and
> vacation travel increases (Business Week, April 16, page 140).
>
> Already evidence is mounting that the labor market is shifting from a
> shortage to a surplus. Until very recently, workers who were bounced
> could feel confident about new opportunities. But that's no longer the
> case. The Conference Board's Help Wanted Advertising Index has plunged 20
> points since last year, to 71, its lowest level since 1993. The index' 22
> percent plunge is a source of worry for economists. Since the 1970s,
> whenever the index has fallen by 15 percent or more, a recession soon
> followed. There are plenty of other indicators of tough times ahead for
> U.S. workers as well. Private unemployment -- which tallies jobs in the
> private sector, excluding government posts -- jumped from 4 percent in
> December to 4.5 percent in February. Equally ominous, the National
> Association of Purchasing Management surveys of hiring at both
> manufacturing and service companies show precipitous declines over the
> past year. If economists' worse predictions come to pass, and if weak
> earnings persist into the second and third quarters, the overall
> unemployment rate could rise to 5 percent by the end of this year,
> according to John Graham, finance professor at Duke University's J. B.
> Fuqua School of Business. That may still be a healthy employment level by
> traditional standards, but try telling that to the multitude of workers
> who will be joining the unemployment rolls. So far, unemployment for those
> with college degrees is just a tiny 1.6 percent. But the spread of hiring
> freezes, which some economists predict will continue for at least the next
> quarter, could quickly spike up that number to 2 or 3 percent, the same
> level it reached in early 1992 (Business Week, April 16, page 39).
>
> Business inventories probably increased 0.2 percent in February, after
> jumping 0.4 percent in January, says the S&P MMS survey. The
> smaller-than-expected increase suggests that businesses are making headway
> in realigning their inventories (Business Week, April 16, page 140).
>
> DUE OUT TOMORROW: College Enrollment and Work Activity of 2000 High
> School Graduates.
>
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