> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL 13, 2001:
>
> Released Today: Sixty-three percent of the high school graduating class
> of 2000 was enrolled in colleges or universities in the fall, the Bureau
> of Labor Statistics reports. The college enrollment rate was virtually
> the same as a year earlier and was well below the record high of 67
> percent in 1997.
>
> The producer price index for finished consumer goods slipped 0.1 percent
> in March, reversing February's gain of the same size, BLS reported. A 2.6
> percent decline in energy prices was the major factor in the change (Daily
> Labor Report, page D-4).
>
> Prices paid to producers edged down in March, the Labor Department said
> today, in a report seen as a further inducement for Federal Reserve policy
> makers to keep lowering interest rates (Reuters in The New York Times,
> page C3).
>
> Initial claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance
> benefits rose by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 392,000 in the week ending
> April 7, according to data from the Labor Department's Employment and
> Training Administration. This marks the greatest volume of weekly UI
> claims since the week ended March 30, 1996, when the initial claims figure
> reached 397,000. ETA figures showed that the 4-week moving average of
> initial UI claims as of April 7 was 380,500, an increase of 3,000 from the
> previous week's revised average of 377,500. About one year ago, the
> average was nearly 115,000 below its current level, standing at 266,250.
> Analysts watch this figure more closely, as it smooths out fluctuations in
> data subject to weekly variations (Daily Labor Report, page D-13).
>
> Sluggish sales in a wide range of products -- from autos to building
> materials and gasoline -- resulted in a 0.2 percent decline in total
> retail sales for March, according to the Department of Commerce. Analysts
> expected a lackluster performance, but the report was somewhat more
> negative than generally predicted. Yet economists were somewhat
> encouraged by an upward revision in the February retail sales estimates,
> which now show no change in the total rather than a 0.2 percent drop as
> first reported (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
>
> National Bureau of Economic Research reports two key measures of the
> economy's health -- employment and industrial output -- have declined, but
> not to the point of recession. NBER is a nonprofit organization based in
> Cambridge, Mass., whose research is conducted by some 500 university
> professors. Its Business Cycle Dating Committee is regarded as the
> official arbiter of when recessions begin and end. While a common
> definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction --
> gross domestic product declined three quarters in a row in 1990-91 -- the
> NBER uses a different yardstick. "A recession is a significant decline in
> activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months,
> visible in industrial production, employment, real income and trade,"
> writes the chairman of the NBER dating committee in a memo....As for the
> jobs data, the March report from BLS, released April 6, showed a loss of
> 86,000 workers. That was the largest drop in 12 months, and the general
> trend over the previous 12 months was one of job growth averaging 152,000
> a month. (Daily Labor Report, page A-4).
>
> American consumer confidence is faltering as workers are becoming
> increasingly worried about their job prospects, several economic reports
> indicated yesterday. Retail sales fell last month and unemployment
> appears likely to continue rising, two reports showed, prompting many
> analysts to view slipping consumer confidence as a serious risk to
> economic growth. If consumers decide to cut back their spending, the very
> slow growth of recent months could give way to a decline in economic
> activity -- in other words, recession, says John M. Berry and Martha
> McNeil Hamilton, writing in The Washington Post (page E1). Consumer
> confidence, which began to drop last fall but appeared to stabilize in
> March, resumed its decline this month, according to the University of
> Michigan's monthly survey of consumer sentiment. The university's
> consumer sentiment index fell to 87.8 in early April from 91.5 in March.
> Two-thirds of consumers believe the economy is already in a recession, the
> survey showed. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said yesterday that
> initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 9,000 last week to
> 392,000, the highest figure in 5 years. A number of analysts said the
> steady upward march in claims points to a rising jobless rate in coming
> months.
>
> The American consumer, a pillar of strength through the economic turmoil
> of early 2001, is looking shaky. Americans spent less money at retail
> stores last month than they did in February, and in recent weeks they have
> turned still more pessimistic about the economy, according to two reports
> released yesterday. In addition, initial claims for unemployment benefits
> reached their highest level last week in 5 years, the Labor Department
> said yesterday. The new data increase the chances that the economy is
> headed toward a recession because they suggest that consumers who have
> been more willing to spend money than businesses in recent months, are
> pulling back as layoffs rise and stock prices remain far below last year's
> levels. Still, none of the reports were so weak as to indicate that a
> recession was now inevitable, most economists say. In March, retail sales
> fell 0.2 percent from February's level, the Census Bureau says. Spending
> in the first quarter remained fairly strong, increasing 4.5 percent over
> the fourth quarter of 2000, but nearly all of that gain came in January.
> The preliminary April confidence index, which is based on a telephone
> survey of about 300 people, was 87.8, down from a reading of 91.5 in March
> and 108.3 in July 2000 (The New York Times, page C1).
>
> After a winter respite, the economy appears to be taking a turn for the
> worse, says Greg Ip, writing in The Wall Street Journal, page A2). In
> early April, the number of Americans filing initial claims for
> unemployment insurance hit a 5-year high, and consumer confidence, after
> stabilizing in March, slid to its lowest since 1993, according to the
> University of Michigan. In addition, the Commerce Department reported
> that March retail sales fell 0.2 percent and excluding auto dealers, sales
> dropped 0.1 percent. Both numbers were weaker than economists expected.
> Yesterday's gloomy collection of reports raises the risk that consumer
> spending could weaken markedly in coming months. Weaker consumer
> spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation's gross domestic
> product, raises the risk of recession. At the same time, the Labor
> Department reported that producer prices fell 0.1 percent in March from
> February, and edged up just 0.1 percent when volatile food and energy
> costs were excluded.
>
> A small business group foresees the nation's unemployment rate hitting 5
> percent by the fall, a level not seen since 1997. A sharp rise in
> unemployment, which stood at 4.3 percent in March, wouldn't bode well for
> a quick pickup in the economy. Significant job loss could shake consumer
> confidence and cause a downward spiral in sales and profits, says Rodney
> Ho writing in The Wall Street Journal (page B8). The National Federation
> of Independent Business, the nation's largest small-business lobbying
> group, used data from its monthly survey of small businesses to arrive at
> the figure. The most significant statistic is the percentage of small
> businesses reporting hard-to-fill positions. A sharp drop in that
> category typically has meant lax demand for workers and fewer available
> jobs.
>
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