> BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, MAY 1, 2001:
>
> The month of April ended the same way it began -- with an economic report
> that surprised analysts. The jobs report showed a U.S. economy that
> appeared weaker than projected, while the first estimates of gross
> domestic product showed resilience and modest growth. While at first
> glance the two unexpected reports seem contradictory, analysts sifting
> through the numbers found a relatively consistent story of an economic
> slowdown that has shown only modest labor market effects so far. Job
> growth is typically among the lagging indicators during a slowdown, and
> this time around appears to be no exception. Recent compensation and
> price figures underscored that while there has been no acceleration in
> either case, the economic downturn or "growth recession" has not been of
> sufficient depth or duration to dampen inflation. Pay increases in
> particular fall into the category of what economists call "sticky"
> indicators during downturns (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
>
> Both personal income and consumer spending increased at nominal rates in
> March, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says. Total personal income
> increased 0.5 percent, or $40.8 billion, in March, to match the revised
> 0.5 percent rise in February. Wages and salaries continued to expand at
> about the same rate as in recent months, while interest income continued
> to decline. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3 percent or $18.6
> billion in March after increasing 0.2 percent, or $13 billion, in
> February. The most significant figure in the report, said the chief
> economist for UBS Warburg, was a 0.1 percent increase in the "core"
> personal consumption expenditures -- non-food and non-energy (Daily Labor
> Report, page D-3).
>
> Americans spent a bit more in March than they did in February, shelling
> out more on services but cutting back on big-ticket items such as cars and
> major appliances. While spending rose 0.3 percent in March, personnal
> income grew 0.5 percent, the Commerce Department said. February income
> was revised upward to a gain of 0.5 percent, from an initial 0.4 percent
> pace. Spending for February was trimmed a bit to a revised 0.2 percent
> gain from the 0.3 percent first reported. The data are consistent with
> the stronger-than-expected 2 percent annual growth rate in the naton's
> gross domestic product in the first quarter, reported by the Commerce
> Department Friday (The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
>
> Despite growing unemployment, Americans' personal incomes continued to
> increase fast enough in March to support rising consumer spending, the
> Commerce Department said yesterday, John M. Berry writes in The Washington
> Post (page E1). Personal income, which includes wages, interest,
> government benefits and other items, rose 0.5 percent in March, the fifth
> straight monthly increase. Consumer spending increased 0.3 percent,
> slightly more than in February, but after adjustment for inflation the
> gain was only 0.2 percent. All these figures were incorporated into the
> department's estimate, released Friday, that the U.S. economy grew in the
> first 3 months of the year at a 2 percent annual rate, about twice as fast
> as most analysts had expected.
>
> Personal incomes and spending rose in March, and manufacturing in the
> Midwest showed signs of emerging from a slump, government and private
> reports showed today. The Commerce Department reported that personal
> incomes rose 0.3 percent in March, after a similar gain a month earlier.
> Spending rose 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent increase in February.
> Americans still spent more than they earned. Separately, the National
> Association of Purchasing Management said that its monthly index of
> regional manufacturing rose to 38.9 in April from a 19-year low of 35 in
> March. The index, based on a survey, was still below 50, the threshold
> between growth and decline. The numbers suggested that manufacturers were
> struggling in an economy that grew 2 percent in the first quarter.
> Neither report offered an unqualified picture of a rebounding factory
> economy. The employment index in the purchasing report fell to its lowest
> since October 1980. The spending report showed increased demand for
> services, no change for nondurable merchandise like clothing and food and
> a decline for durable goods like cars and appliances. Today's reports
> indicated a reduced threat of inflation, making further interest rate cuts
> on the part of the Federal Reserve more likely (The New York Times, page
> C3).
>
> Inventories of unsold goods held by U.S. businesses in February registered
> the biggest decline in almost 5 years. The Commerce Department reported
> today that stocks of goods on shelves and backlots fell by 0.2 percent to
> a seasonally adjusted $1.22 trillion
> (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/businessnews/article/0,2669,2-5116
> 4,FF.html).
>
> Increasingly, women are moving into fields once dominated by men. And
> they're pulling even--or even slightly ahead--in the pay they receive.
> Take veterinarians. In 1989, less than 2 percent of them were women;
> today, they account for 43 percent of that profession, according to a
> recent analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by the Employment
> Policy Foundation. During the same period, the Washington-based economic
> think-tank found the female share of bus drivers made almost the identical
> jump. As for certain declining blue-collar jobs (such as crushing-and
> grinding-machine operators), the increase in women workers was anywhere
> from seven-to 13-fold. Female participation also climbed for growing
> white-dollar and service occupations, such as top public administrators
> (up nine-fold), chemistry teachers and dentists (up four-fold), car
> salespeople and messengers (up three-fold)
> (http://www.csmonitor.com/durable/2001/04/30/p16s2.htm).
>
> DUE OUT TOMORROW: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: March
> 2001
>
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