> BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MAY 10, 2001:
>
> RELEASED TODAY: The U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.5 percent in April,
> the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The monthly decrease was
> the third in a row and was attributable to falling prices for both
> petroleum and nonpetroleum imports. The Export Price Index was unchanged
> in April, after dipping 0.1 percent in March.
>
> New claims for state unemployment insurance dipped last week but still
> remained at a high level, suggesting employers' demand for workers
> continues to be weak. The Labor Department reported today that initial
> applications for jobless benefits dropped 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted
> 384,000 for the work week ending May 5. The last time jobless claims
> stood at 384,000 was July 4, 1998. Claims for the week ending May 5 were
> down from the week before, when a revised 425,000 claims were posted --
> keeping claims at their highest level since March 23, 1996, when they
> stood at 428,000. But in the latest report, the more stable 4-week moving
> average of jobless claims, which smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations,
> was 402,500, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average
> of 405,500 (Associated Press,
> http://www.latimes.com/wires/20010510/ap_jobless010510.htm).
>
> Many of the nation's retailers reported an improvement in sales for April,
> but Wall Street analysts don't see this as a reassuring sign that consumer
> spending is on the rebound. Rather, consumers are continuing to struggle
> with rising energy prices as well as a deepening economic malaise that are
> making them less confident about spending freely, analysts said
> (Associated Press,
> http://washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9254-2001May10.html).
>
> Sunny weather in April heated up purchases of spring apparel, lawn and
> garden equipment and sporting goods, leading to better-than-expected sales
> for many U.S. retailers, including industry leader Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.
> Wet, cold weather in March dampened consumers' appetite for spring
> clothing and other warm-weather items, resulting in a dismal sales month,
> but more seasonal spring weather returned to many parts of the U.S. in
> April (Reuters,
> http://wwwO.mercurycenter.com/business/bizwire/docs/11799721.htm).
>
> Leading forecasters still expect the U.S. economy to grow 2 percent his
> year, but have trimmed their predictions for growth next year to 3.1
> percent from 3.5 percent 3 months ago, according to the National
> Association for Business Economics. The 27 forecasters taking part in the
> NABE panel believe there is a 35 percent chance of the economy slipping
> into recession this year, and only 25 percent next year, which is up
> "modestly" from the February survey, the report said. The survey was
> taken the last two weeks of April. The panelists attribute the economic
> slowdown to a "classic inventory correction" combined with the impact of
> last year's Federal Reserve interest-rate increases. They raised slightly
> their forecast for the unemployment rate this year -- to 4.5 percent from
> 4.4 percent earlier -- and to 4.7 for next year, compared to the 4.5
> percent they had in February (Daily Labor Report, page A12).
>
> Business economists still say they believe that the United States will
> probably avoid recession this year, a quarterly survey by the National
> Association for Business Economists found. Those surveyed said the
> Consumer Price Index would probably rise 3 percent in 2001, up from a 2.6
> percent forecast in the previous survey, mainly because of higher energy
> costs, and 2.5 percent in 2002, unchanged from the last survey. Prices
> rose 3.4 percent last year (Bloomberg News, The New York Times, page C2).
>
> The Federal Pay Comparability Act sought to bring federal pay within 5
> percent of private sector salaries over a 9-year period (1994-2002),
> writes Stephen Barr, in the "Federal Diary" (Washington Post, page B2).
> But the clock has essentially run out. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did
> not receive sufficient funding to produce the up-to-date wage surveys
> needed to calculate local pay adjustments. The bureau's efforts to gather
> the data from other surveys never took hold. Now, OMB and the Office of
> Personnel Management are stuck with mostly obsolete data for making pay
> comparability estimates. As a result, OMB designates an average percentage
> raise each year in the president's budget and earmarks a small part of the
> total as locality pay.
>
> A survey to be released today by the Employee Benefit Research Institute
> and others finds that fewer Americans are saving for retirement, fewer are
> confident that they will have sufficient funds to live comfortably in
> retirement, and fewer have tried to calculate how much money they need to
> save for later life. When asked in January and February of this year about
> their confidence in having enough money to live comfortably in retirement,
> 63 percent of those surveyed said they were "very" or "somewhat"
> confident, down from 72 percent a year ago. At the same time, the
> percentage of workers who said they were "not at all confident" about
> having enough money in later life jumped to 17 percent from 10 percent.
> One big reason for the change: increased media coverage --as well as
> discussion in last year's presidential campaign--about the rising cost of
> medical and long-term care.(The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
>
> DUE OUT TOMORROW: Producer Price Indexes--April 2001
>
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