A, if not the, crucial claim of the Great Divergence is that a Europe
facing similar ecological constraints as China was saved by New
World silver, timber, sugar, cotton and potatoes. The more I
research this question, however, the more it seems China, not
Europe, was recued from such a crisis thanks to Europe's
conquest of the Americas.
First, recall my earlier point about how careful P has to be in his
assessment of China's looming crisis, arguing simultaneously that
China was facing similar constraints by 1800 but had not yet slided
into a Malthusian world of poverty and falling living standards. That
China could not have reached a dead end by 1800, since grain
production kept pace with a doubling of the population between
1750 and 1850, yet acknowledging that there was little room left for
further per capita growth without significant innovations. Indeed,
how could anyone claim that 1800 China was in the middle of an
overpopulation crisis when its population continued to grow by
150 million, or possibly 225 million, between 1800-1930? A crisis
was looming, yes, as in Europe, "rural living standards did not
improve much, if at all, between 1800 and 1850", and "the next
twenty five years were catastrophic, featuring no less than four
major civil wars, massive floods, droughts, and other calamities..."
(144) - but only because China was not as lucky as Europe to
avoid this looming crisis through the exploitation of new world crops.
Yet, there are some hints in P's book suggesting that, as one
focuses on specific regions in China, we get a different, more
accurate, picture of China's Malthusian situation. Writing about
cotton output in the Lower Yangzi, China's richest and most
*intensively cultivated* area , he leaks the observation "population
grew little between 1750 and 1850" (p139). Meanwhile, still on
cotton, we also learn that "the population of Shandong and
Zhili/Hebei increased over 40% between 1750 and 1870, and by
about 80% by 1913" (p141). Is this an indication that China's
richest area, which P had said should be compared to England/The
Netherlands in Europe, was indeed in the middle of a Malthusian
crisis by 1800, forcing people to occupy the poorer, marginal,
mountainous lands of Shandong, and the northern Zhili/Hebei
regions? - POSSIBLY THE AREAS WHERE NEW WORLD
CROPS HAD THEIR GREATEST INFLUENCE?
