At 22/08/01 15:37 -0400, Alex Izurieta wrote:
>1) There seems to be (for me and other observers) convincing evidence
>that
>we are leading to a recession.
>
>
>2) How deep and how long I do not "know", but (WITHOUT EFFECTIVE POLICY
>CHANGES) we could think of something between the UK case and the CBO
>projections for the US
Much as I am in favour pursuing progressive reforms, isn't capitalism a
self-organising system which will be very resistant to policy changes that
aim to prevent a long term recession? One way or other, they will be
thwarted by the unconscious workings of the system.
Less dynamic societies have social systems that can cope with a periods
when the flow of surplus product to the elite is somewhat reduced - eg
during periods of poor harvests. But the dynamics of capitalism are such
that if the surplus does not continue to grow, a proportion of the elite,
and all those dependent on them, have to become idle for a long period of
time until they are gradually absorbed into economic activity again. That
is how the system eventually adjusts and organises itself in a
self-perpetuating fashion. Very dynamic, but on average over time, one that
works at less than full capacity.
Any alterations in the availability of money or credit, may give a
temporary illusion that people could risk getting back into economic
activity again, but these measures come up against a real, if sometimes
rather flexible, ceiling: at certain stages it is impossible for one part
of the economy to continuing to consume as much as it has been, if the
other part of the economy is to continue to accumulate as much as it is.
This leads to a problem of circulation. Lack of confidence is much more the
result of these inexorable processes, than the cause.
What policy changes could meet the objection that
they must be more than psychological window dressing, and
overcome the massive intertia in the dynamics of this self-organising system?
Chris Burford
Lonon
