G'day all, Just keeping Doug, and anyone else interested in Australia's miracle economy, up to date on the way of things. The little Ozzie battler (the consoomer) is still throwing the Visa at anything shiny, and the quiet achievers (business) are investing in capital equipment again (it's either that or more storage space for their inventories, I s'pose). Anyway, let's hope the US don't cut Ozzie steel and agri-imports - let's hope the lapsed house-building grants don't dent demand, let's hope record residential debt doesn't slow those Visa cards, let's hope the CAD doesn't push the Aussie down and interest rates up, let's hope soaring insurance premiums don't close down small business, and let's hope the Yen doesn't fall and weaken demand from a trading partner with whom we do a quarter of our international business ...
Cheers, Rob. Current account blows out, jobs ads dip CANBERRA, March 4 AAP|Published: THE AGE Monday March 4, 5:04 PM Australia's current account deficit more than doubled to its highest level in 18 months late last year while the jobs picture also weakened, new figures showed today. But there was better news on the retail front with shoppers lifting their spending for the eighth month in a row. Allowing for seasonal factors, retail trade rose 1.4 per cent in January to $14.09 billion, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. Treasurer Peter Costello said the figures were very encouraging and showed solid retailing growth in Australia. But a collapse in exports late last year helped deliver the biggest current deficit in 18 months for the December quarter, the ABS said. The current account, a snapshot of all the financial transactions between Australia and the rest of the world for the quarter, blew out to $6.59 billion from $3.09 billion the previous quarter, itself a 20 year low. "The higher imports in the figure represent solid levels of consumption growth and a strengthening in business investment," Mr Costello told reporters. Labor's treasury spokesman Bob McMullan said the jump in the current account deficit, the biggest on record, raised concerns about the economy's direction in the second half of 2002. "With exports slowing and housing (expected) to slow, we desperately need those investment expectations to be realised or we're going to be relying entirely on strong consumption to drive growth in our economy," he said. Exports of goods and services outweighed imports in the September quarter, but there was a $2.52 billion turnaround in favour of imports in the December quarter, the ABS said. This would cut December quarter GDP figure - to be announced Wednesday - by 1.5 percentage points, it said. Net foreign debt dipped to $326.12 billion in the December quarter from $328.42 billion previously, the ABS said. Meanwhile, job advertisements in major newspapers fell by 5.4 per cent in February - the biggest fall in 11 months - to an average of 20,762 per week, the ANZ Bank said in its latest survey. But Mr Costello said there was still a net increase if the January survey was included. "Together with low home interest rates, the first home owners' scheme, strong retail trade - that presents a good picture for the economy in 2002," Mr Costello said. "Australia will, I believe, defy US recession, Japanese recession, south-east Asian countries in recession and continue to grow." ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake said the February fall was expected after January's strong gain, the fifth biggest in the survey's history. "Indeed, much the same can be expected to occur with the official employment figures for February, after January's extraordinary 101,800 gain," he said. By Jim Hanna, Economics Correspondent Copyright © 2002 John Fairfax Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
