EURASIA INSIGHT January 22, 2003 GEOPOLITICAL PRESSURE COMPELS TURKEY TO RE-EXAMINE INTERNATIONAL OPTIONS Igor Torbakov: 1/22/03 http://www.eurasianet.org
Turkey is facing mounting geopolitical pressure - including the prospect of another war in Iraq and a snub by the European Union - that is pushing Ankara to reevaluate its international orientation. Political analysts say Turkish leaders are increasingly looking to Eurasian states to act as a buffer against potential regional instability. Turkey has experienced dramatic shifts in its domestic and external politics in recent months. The Islamic-based Justice and Development Party (AKP) swept into power in Ankara following a landslide victory in the November 3 parliamentary elections. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Meanwhile, in the foreign policy sphere, Turkey has witnessed an erosion in the two main pillars of its traditionally pro-Western orientation. The EU's reluctance to set a date for starting accession talks, as well as friction between Ankara and Washington over a possible US-led campaign against Iraq, has left Turkish leaders frustrated and inclined to explore geopolitical alternatives, regional analysts say. A large segment of Turkey's political class, including a bulk of AKP members, believe that Turkey should strengthen its position in the Middle East and the deepen ties with Russia and the Turkic nations in Central Eurasia to compensate for recent setbacks on the country's "Western Front." "[Current] developments make Turkey's positioning to the West reliant on its strength in the East," argues Kivanç Galip Över, the editor of the Diplomaticobserver.com website. The EU's snub of Turkey at December's summit in Copenhagan has significantly diminished interest among Turks in joining the union. "There is now little room for keeping EU enthusiasm alive at home." says the political analyst Fatma Demirelli. Some Turkish commentators contend that two significant factors - the country's geography and history - should be taken into consideration as the country ponders its future course. "Policies are usually shaped by geography," asserts the analyst Över. Turkey's geographic location, some political thinkers maintain, encourages Turkey to adopt a mainly Eurasian and Middle Eastern strategic agenda. "If Turkey is not 'European' enough to warrant membership in the European Union, then it should pursue its own initiative in its own, extraordinary, vital backyard," notes a commentary published in the influential Turkish Daily News. "Let the EU and NATO deal with their own southern flank defense problems. After all, not only is most of Turkey not in Europe, none of it is even remotely near the North Atlantic Ocean." Historical factors are also capable of exerting influence over Ankara's decision making. The present-day Turkish Republic is a historic successor to the once formidable Eurasian Ottoman Empire. The imperial memories, the analysts assert, are still vivid. "Turkey is a country where people remember events of the past . as if they happened yesterday," says Över. It is symptomatic that historic and geographic considerations were cited by Tacan Ildem, Turkish President Ahmet Necdet Sezer's foreign policy advisor and spokesman, in explaining Ankara's reluctance to fully support a US plan of attack against Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein. Turkey's contribution to a possible operation will be "limited because of its historic ties to a neighbor and because of Turkey's status in the region," Ildem said at a weekly press briefing. Recent diplomatic moves by the AKP administration underscore Turkey's changing diplomatic priorities. While Turkish premier Abdullah Gùl was touring Mideast countries, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the AKP leader, visited Moscow and then Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in early January. In Azerbaijan, Erdogan called for the strengthening of a "strategic partnership" between Ankara and Baku, while offering strong support for Azerbaijan's political stance concerning a political settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. The Turkish leader also said he would work to promote a rapid rise in Azerbaijani-Turkish trade, expressing hope that by 2004 commerce between the two states would total $1 billion. The Baku daily Zerkalo termed Erdogan's target as "cosmic," noting that bilateral trade volume had fallen in 2001 to $295 million. "With his trip to Central Asia, [Erdogan] has opened up new horizons deep in Eurasia," wrote Mehmet Ocaktan in the Islamic-leaning daily Yeni Safak. Mehmet Dùlger, the head of Turkish parliament's Foreign Relations Committee, is one of the strongest proponents of Turkey's "Eurasian vector" within the AKP leadership. In an extensive interview with the Turkish Daily News the top lawmaker forcefully advocated the revision of Turkey's foreign policy priorities. "Let's have a closer look at the map," Dùlger began. He went on to express a preference for developing ties with Russia. However, Ankara's options can be much broader, Dùlger added. "Why are we not closer with Ukraine? Why should we not revitalize the Black Sea cooperation scheme as an alternative? In addition there is Iran." Dùlger also supports Turkish involvement in the so-called "Eurasian Triangle," comprising China, India and Russia. "We should not waste an opportunity by rejecting an offer to take a leading position in an alternative [Eurasian] grouping at a time when the EU keeps turning us down," he said. During Erdogan's visit to Moscow, the Eurasian Triangle issue was a central topic of discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Turkish daily Milliyet reported. Some leading Turkish political strategists go out of their way to stress that Ankara's overall foreign policy course remains unchanged. However, even they appear to recognize the importance of Turkey's newly rediscovered Eurasian identity. The recent Turkish leaders' visits to the Middle East and Central Asia are "not an alternative to Europe," argued Professor Ahmet Davutoglu, Prime Minister Gùl's chief advisor on foreign policy. Turkey's ultimate goal remains full membership in the EU, Davutoglu maintained. But at the same time, he added, Turkey "is a country that is very much involved in [Eurasian and] Middle East politics. . We have to see these multidimensional characteristics of our geography and history." Editor's Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1988-1997; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC, 1995, and a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York, 2000. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey. Some material used in this report was compiled by Fariz Ismailzade, a Baku-based freelance writer.
