one thing that this thesis seems to miss (based on a reading based only the following) is that in the US, elections aren't won by numbers of people. The herd of candidates is thinned by the media (e.g., the campaign against Dean) and by campaign contributions (dollar votes). Further, a problem with the hypothesized Democratic Party majority is that it would be concentrated in cites, while the US electoral college system that makes the final official reckoning is biased to favor large empty states with few voters. (The Supreme Court could also fix the election again.) Of course, if the DP ever got someone elected who was left of center (e.g. Kucinich) he or she would face a sh*tstorm of opposition from Congress, the media, business, etc. It might turn into a Venezuela-type situation...
------------------------ Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine > -----Original Message----- > From: Marvin Gandall [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 8:20 AM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [PEN-L] The Teixeira thesis > > > The population of college-educated workers, women, > minorities, and young > people who support the Democratic Party is growing quickly, and will > lead it to dominate American politics, argues Ruy Teixeira in > the latest > issue of Britain’s Prospect magazine. > > Teixeira first propounded the thesis with co-author John Judis in The > Emerging Democratic Majority, which appeared shortly before the US > mid-term elections in 2002 – unfortunate timing, because these saw a > sharp swing to the Republicans. But Teixeira says the election was an > aberration resulting from the effects of 9/11, and a demographic > analysis of the vote still points to the long-term ascendancy of the > Democrats. > > In essence, the theory is tied to the transformation of the > economy into > one based on services and so-called knowledge industries > located in what > Teixeira and Judis call “ideopolises”, as well as continued strong > immigration. > > While these structural trends are real, extrapolating permanent > political realignments is risky at best, since the rise and decline of > political parties is more directly influenced by living standards, > international developments, competing parties, and other changing and > largely unforeseeable historical circumstances. > > Article reproduced on www.supportingfacts.com > > Sorry for any cross posting. >
