It is a bit unfair to start your graph in 1999, which was the height of a stock bubble. Equally skewed results occur if the graph starts in 2009 (or even 2003). The reason most financial advisors recommend stocks as the best bet for long term appreciation is that if you randomly select a starting date, and then randomly select an ending date, on average stocks will beat bonds, and that likelihood increases the longer your time period. I don't know about predicting a depression in 1999, but lots of people predicted a stock bubble was about to burst. I was sort of one of them -- I had no regrets selling ten years of Fidelity equity fund acquisitions in 1999 to fund the down payment on my West LA house, which was one of the best/luckiest decisions I ever made.
David Shemano -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Sabri Oncu Sent: Saturday, June 23, 2012 2:04 PM To: pen-l Subject: [Pen-l] These pictures are for Julio Dear Julio, To see why I claim I have been one of the best portfolio managers since August 1999, when I called this depression, take a look at the two pictures I attached. Mind you, the bond index I attached is just the US Corporate AAA Bond index. The Long Term US Treasury Bond Index did much better. Best, Sabri _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
