I am not being judgmental at all. I think you had very rational reasons for what you did. But in hindsight, what you should have done is all a matter of the question asked. For example, if the question is: What investment should I buy in 1999 if I want to sell it in 2012, your strategy is maybe the correct answer. But if the question is: what investment should I buy in 1999 if I want to sell in 2006 (or 2016), maybe your strategy is not the correct answer. That is why, when you pick an investment, time horizon is so important, as is the acceptance that it is impossible to beat the market as a whole over time except through random luck. You should be proud of your success, but your success, for the time period selected, does not tell us anything meaningful about what an average investor should do at any given time.
David Shemano -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Sabri Oncu Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2012 1:08 PM To: pen-l Subject: Re: [Pen-l] These pictures are for Julio David: > It is a bit unfair to start your graph in 1999, which was the height > of a stock bubble. Equally skewed results occur if the graph starts in 2009 > (or even 2003). But, David, I did what I did without knowing the future of August 1999. All I knew then was a few things I read in a few books. I switched to the long term US Treasuries, 100%, in August 1999 and stayed put 100% in the long term US Treasuries thereafter. Did I know what would happen in 2012, then? No! I know, it is unfair, but this is what I did. I am talking about my own performance. Are you telling me that I should not have done what I did? Best, Sabri PS: By the way, I switched to bonds 100% in the summer of 1998, but to the Lehman Bond Index tracked by PIMCO, managed by our Bill Gross, then. I have beaten Bill bad, too. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
