The total amount of capital included in derivatives contracts is certainly
incredibly large (trillions of dollars). But the global amount of income
realized from these contracts themselves is only a few percent of the insured
sum. That income is still large, of course. The general global tendency is for
more and more capital to be insured against losses in value, plus there is
globally a general increase in speculation for capital gain. So I’d say most
likely the derivatives market will keep expanding, and the more volatility
there is, the more it will expand. It does not make much sense to strike a
ratio between the total volume of derivatives contracts and GDP, you would have
to set it against total capital assets of all kinds. That would give you an
indicator of the proportion of total capital assets subject to derivatives
contracts, which is most probably growing.
J.
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