> On Feb 26, 2015, at 12:52 PM, Doug Henwood <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>> On Feb 26, 2015, at 3:21 PM, Paul Zarembka <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> To ignore the other aspects of anti-austerity, namely, restarting the
>> economy and regaining employment, (deepening democracy and tax justice are
>> means, not ends), is what I mean his support amounting to a apology for the
>> government negotiating outcome. To be 'critical' in the good sense of the
>> word regarding the outcome for anti-austerity in its full range is to be
>> objective and non-apologetic.
>
> What do you propose Greece use for money to finance an anti-austerity
> program? They have none, and can't borrow any.
Tragically, there are no options within Syriza's control. I've said from the
beginning that the only hope for the beleaguered Greek masses is that the
dominant wing of the European bourgeoisie will recognize that the limits of
austerity have been reached and some measure of accommodation to popular needs
is necessary to restore economic demand and political legitimacy to the
eurozone project. But it's equally likely that the German-led bloc has
determined that it is not going to throw good money after bad, particularly
when it will stimulate demands for similar debt relief from the other highly
indebted states, and that it is best to force Greece out of the eurozone in a
carefully managed Grexit. Which scenario prevails will become clear over the
next few months.
I agree with the view that the fundamental problem is the underlying capitalist
economy, and that the only way Syriza can distinguish itself from previous
Greek governments is by repudiating the debt and, as would necessarily follow,
nationalizing the banks and the rest of the commanding heights and mobilizing
the Greek and European masses in an all-out struggle for socialism. But this is
not its program, and even if it were, I'm not confident that it or any
left-wing party could turn the prevailing relationship of forces between the
classes in its favour.
While I appreciate the terrible dilemma facing the Tsipras government, caught
as it is between the proverbial rock and a hard place, I would rather that it
had never taken power if it is finally going to capitulate to the central
demands of the EU-ECB-IMF regarding labour market "reform", privatization of
key sectors of the economy, and fiscal restraint in exchange for modest
concessions regarding repayment of the debt and relief for the most
impoverished sectors of Greek society. That would clash with the expectations
of the Greek masses and discredit the European left for a generation. Despite
the declarations by Syriza leaders and their supporters abroad of having won
the initial skirmish against the Eurogroup, the early signs on balance are not
encouraging:
Tensions high as Greece scrambles to keep rescue deal alive
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph
February 23 2015
Greece has vowed to shake up labour markets and push through far-reaching
reforms to avert a fresh showdown with eurozone creditors this week, hoping to
stave off bankruptcy within days as cash runs dry.
The radical Syriza government submitted a five-page list of measures to EMU
officials in Brussels in time for a deadline on Monday, including an assault on
trade union powers that risks setting off a revolt by the movement's Communist
and hard-left factions.
Failure to reach an agreement would lead to yet another round of crisis talks,
backed by the threat that the European Central Bank could at any time cut off
emergency liquidity support for Greek lenders and effectively force the country
out of the euro.
European officials said the Greek list had run into reservations at its first
hurdle with technocrats in Brussels, causing a delay. This is even before it
goes to eurozone finance ministers on Tuesday, where the reception may be
frigid. There is pervasive concern that any deal will unravel within weeks even
if there a reprieve now.
The deal aims to give Greece four months breathing room to flesh out its plans.
It requires the approval of all the EMU parliaments, including the German
Bundestag, where Chancellor Angela Merkel faces her own headaches if the terms
are not tough enough.
Bavaria's Social Christians (CSU), her coalition allies, reacted angrily to
claims by Greek premier Alexis Tsipras that Athens had scored a major victory
over European creditors last Friday. "If Mr Tsipras is now saying that
austerity is over in Greece, and if he is saying he has won the battle, all the
alarms must go off," said Gerda Hasselfeldt, the CSU's parliamentary leader.
The neuralgic issue for the Greek left is a proposal in the list for "smart"
rules on collective bargaining that hint at the firm-level and factory-level
wage deals implemented in Germany under the Hartz IV reforms. Syriza had
campaigned to restore full union powers that were rolled back by the Troika.
Panagiotis Lafazanis, head of the Left Platform and now the production
minister, said his grouping cannot accept any departure from a "radical left
orientation". He vowed to press ahead with new laws freezing foreclosures on
primary homes and stretching out payments on €74bn of tax arrears. The Left
Platform controls 30pc of the seats on Syriza's central committee.
Syriza leaders are alarmed by a cri de coeur on Sunday by Euro MP Manolis
Glezos, the legendary resister who tore down the Swastika flying over the
Acropolis under Nazi occupation.
He apologised to voters for selling the "illusion" that Syriza could overthrow
the EU-IMF Troika. "There can be no compromise between oppressor and oppressed.
Freedom is the only solution for the slave," he said.
Syriza sources expect party discipline to hold despite "kicking and screaming"
from the Left. The labour reforms are to be carried out with the
worker-friendly International Labour Federation instead of accepting the
harsher variant of the IMF under the Troika. The OECD will "mentor" measures to
boost productivity.
Greek officials say the package will uphold the "first pillar" of Syriza's
Thessaloniki Programme for humanitarian needs, costing €1.8bn. This includes
free electricity and food stamps for 300,000 for the indigent, and a pension
boost for the less well-off.
The most contentious elements of the "second pillar" for economic policy have
been shelved or toned down, such as plans to scrap a new tax on first homes
(ENFIA) and boost income tax thresholds to €12,000.
Privatisations under way will be respected. New sales will be reviewed. The
state will keep control of strategic companies and utilities.
There will be a new regime for state procurements, which gobble up 15pc of GDP.
The financial crimes squad will be revamped, with a crackdown on smuggling for
shipping fuel. Fuel tankers will have to carry GPS devices. Tax loopholes
preserved by Greece's ruling dynasties until now will be attacked.
"This is a fresh start for us. The Greek people will have the opportunity to
co-author our 'contract' with Europe," said the finance minister, Yanis
Varoufakis, in an interview with CNN.
Syriza will press ahead with a rise in the minimum wage, though the list does
not specify the figure of €750 a month in the manifesto. The International
Monetary Fund warned that any rise will make it even harder to combat
unemployment stuck at 24pc. It says the current level is already on the high
side, given Greek productivity.
The package is just a starting point. It will face fresh hurdles, amid a mood
of zero-tolerance in northern Europe. Walter Bosbach, interior spokesman for
Germany's Christian Democrats, said the terms are far too vague to pin down
Syriza, and accused the Greeks of promising anything to get more money.
"Billions more are going to be flowing to Greece. It is highly unclear whether
we will get anything back from this," he said.
Germany may be right to suspect that Syriza has slipped the austerity leash.
The deal scraps Troika demands for a rise in the primary budget surplus from
1.5pc of GDP in 2014 - in reality nearer 0.6pc - to 3pc this year, and 4.5pc
next year. The surplus will now be "appropriate" to economic circumstances.
Dimitris Drakopoulos, from Nomura, said relations between Athens and EMU
creditors could go wrong at any time. Syriza will have to deliver on pledges
with actual legislation to meet a deadline in April before it receives the next
€7.2bn of bailout money. In the meantime, Greece may face "cash flow problems"
within 15 days. Syriza will need to raise €4bn to €5bn by the end of March in a
hostile market. "The risk of capital controls remains elevated," he said.
Mr Drakopoulos warned that there will be a constant risk of a "new stand-off"
until the political landscape changes again, perhaps with a national unity
government. There may yet be a referendum on the bailout package. "Very soon
the Syriza-led government will be forced to face its own contradictions," he
said.
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