On Jul 21, 2015, at 10:26 AM, Louis Proyect <[email protected]> wrote: > On 7/21/15 10:09 AM, Marv Gandall wrote: >> the intractable coding problems of converting to a new currency, do they? > > There is nothing intractable about it. What I pointed out, and which you > are obviously too technically inexperienced to understand, is that it > *takes time*.
I defer to your technical expertise, but there has been no dispute that the process will take time. The estimates to convert to a new currency range anywhere from an overnight electronic conversion for domestic purposes to Lapavistas’ three to six months to your three years and all points in between. Nor is there disagreement that the transition will be disruptive, although whether worse than the current interminable misery is purely a matter of conjecture. If the process is a a negotiated one with the German-led eurozone bloc, which has its own economic and political interest in an orderly exit (the Schauble trend within elite opinion), it is likely to a superior alternative to the continuing torture on the rack for the Greek people, as Dean Baker and others across the political spectrum have argued with increasing frequency as a result of the latest developments. You too now say there is “nothing intractable” about a currency conversion, but the tenor of your interventions to date have suggested entirely the opposite. In any case, I take this to mean that you now also accept that a reversion to the drachma is technically feasible in the case of Greece, although it will take time. Fair enough. The indictment against the Syriza leadership has been that it has squandered time preparing a Plan B because of its illusions in securing debt relief without austerity within the current eurozone framework. While it was legitimate to enter negotiations testing that possibility, it was, IMO, naive and foolhardy in the extreme not to consider the possibility of an impasse, and to have the option of preparing for an orderly, negotiated exit as a fallback position. It could have begun fashioning this alternative as early as three years ago, when its rise began. > A Y2K conversion at Columbia took 2 years. A year to > analyze and a year to test. Based on my familiarity with such > conversions, I thought that 3 years was a ball park figure for a euro to > drachma conversion. It may be the case that this is what will be > necessary but I only brought up the time (and costs) involved in such a > change because so much of the Grexit left thought it would be a piece of > cake that would take 30 to 60 days. Since I have been involved with > feasibility studies on and off for 25 years or so, these are matters > that I have a pretty good grasp of. > > In any case, I tracked down an IBM strategic planning memorandum from > 1999 that should help throw some light on these questions. Later today I > will be writing a commentary on it and some other IT white papers from > the period to help understand what Greece would be up against. > > From the IBM memo: > > 2.1 Euro inherent properties > > According to the EU Council Regulation No. 1103/97 > [3] from June 1997, the following rules are defined and > mandatory in all member states: > > --‘The Conversion rates shall be adopted as one euro > expressed in terms of each of the national > currencies of the participating Member States. They > shall be adopted with six significant figures. > > --The conversion rates shall not be rounded or > truncated when making conversions. > > --The conversion rates shall be used for conversions > either way between the euro unit and the national > currency units. Inverse rates derived from the > conversion rates shall not be used. > > --Monetary amounts to be converted from one > national currency unit into another shall first be > converted into a monetary amount expressed in the > euro unit, which amount may be rounded to not > less than three decimals and shall then be > converted into the other national currency unit. No > alternative method of calculation may be used > unless it produces the same results.’ > > And further in this regulation: > > ‘Monetary amounts to be paid or accounted for when > rounding takes place after a conversion into the euro > unit ... shall be rounded up or down to the nearest > cent. Monetary amounts which are to be paid or > accounted for which are converted into a national > currency unit shall be rounded up or down to the > nearest sub-unit or in the absence of a sub-unit to the > nearest unit, or according to the national law or > practice to a multiple or fraction of the sub-unit or unit > of the national currency unit. If the application of the > conversion rate gives a result which is exactly half-way, > the sum shall be rounded up.’ > > _______________________________________________ > pen-l mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
