There was a full report a few days ago in the Wall Street Journal providing more support for the view that the future of American politics - and, by extension, global politics - will be shaped by the emergence of the latest political generation, aka the “millennials” who are significantly to the left of the both the Republican party and Democratic party establishment.
The Journal article focuses on their more liberal attitude to social issues, but alludes only peripherally to their economic difficulties - citing student debt but ignoring the lack of suitable job opportunities for young workers in the goods-producing and service sectors which has driven much of their discontent with the system. This cohort now has the same voting weight as the baby boomer generation, though to date has been much less inclined to participate in elections. Though half of younger voters aged 18-34 in the latest WSJ/NBC poll described themselves as independents, as a whole 60% favoured the Democrats and only 27% the Republicans. Bernie Sanders enjoys overwhelming support among the Democratic supporters. They voted 84-14% for Sanders over Clinton in the Iowa Democratic primary and 83-16% over Clinton in New Hampshire. The article is behind a paywall, but I’m copying it here for the benefit of those without access to the newspaper. http://www.wsj.com/articles/millennial-wave-unsettles-presidential-race-1455577532?mod=djem10point Millennial wave unsettles presidential race By Janet Hook Wall Street Journal Feb. 15, 2016 This year’s election cycle marks a generational turning point. For the first time, millennials will match baby boomers as a share of the electorate. There are messages for both parties in polling data about the generation born after 1980. For Republicans who think millennials will outgrow their liberal tilt in the last two presidential contests: Don’t count on it. For establishment Democrats who hope Hillary Clinton can inherit Barack Obama’s young followers: Don’t take it for granted. Those cautionary notes were clear in the results from Iowa and New Hampshire, and in interviews with voters like Alison Sanderlin, who was raised in a conservative town in rural Virginia. She says as a college student she was put off by GOP stands on social issues and cast her first vote for president for Mr. Obama. Now 26 years old, with a job in a photo lab and student debt to pay, she still thinks the GOP message falls flat. But she isn’t enamored with Democratic front-runner Mrs. Clinton either, because of her shifting positions on important issues. So she is backing Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. “He doesn’t seem to have ulterior motives,” she says. Many like-minded millennials participated in the Iowa caucuses, where 17- to 29-year-olds favored Mr. Sanders over Mrs. Clinton by an overwhelming 84% to 14%. In New Hampshire, young voters favored Mr. Sanders by a nearly identical 83% to 16%. About half of millennials—who like boomers account for 31% of eligible voters—don’t identify with either party, though polling data about them suggest they are more liberal than their parents are now, and more liberal than younger generations were just a few decades ago. Yet any millennial advantage for Democrats will matter only if young people are motivated and turn out to vote, which may be easier said than done. A poll by Harvard’s Institute of Politics late last year found that young voters, who are always less inclined to vote than their elders, are more disengaged in politics than they were just four years ago. For many, the ardor for Mr. Obama has cooled over his two terms, and it isn’t clear that Mrs. Clinton, if she is the nominee, can engender the enthusiasm among young people that Mr. Sanders has or Mr. Obama once did. Sensing an opening, Republican candidates are trying to move in. In the Iowa caucuses, the two youngest candidates in the GOP field drew the most support from young voters. Entrance polls indicated that Sen. Ted Cruz, 45, pulled 27% of the under-30 vote, and Sen. Marco Rubio, 44, drew 24%, while businessman Donald Trump got 19%. In the New Hampshire GOP primary, the antiestablishment candidates did best with young voters, with Mr. Trump winning 37%, and Mr. Cruz, 16%. The Democratic Party is facing the historically difficult task of holding the White House for a third term, something that has happened only once in the last seven decades. Democrats are counting on young people as a key to help Mrs. Clinton overcome negative feelings many other voters—particularly older white males—have about her. According to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, the only age group that views Mrs. Clinton more positively than negatively is 18- to 34-year old bracket. In any case, millennials are distinctive on a variety of fronts, as seen in a 2014 Pew Research Center study. It found them: • The most ethnically diverse generation in U.S. history. Some 43% are nonwhite, compared with 28% of baby boomers. • Less religious than their elders. Some 35% aren’t religiously affiliated, compared with 17% of boomers. • Slower to marry. Twenty-six percent were married between ages 18 to 33, down from 48% of that age bracket in 1980. The Republican Party has traditionally drawn its greatest support from white, religious, married people with traditional values. “The groups Republicans do well with, these are all demographic traits that are shrinking among millennials,” says Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster who has been studying millennials for years and discusses them in her book, “The Selfie Vote.” “It spells bad news for Republicans.” Not so long ago, young people voted differently. In a South Carolina GOP debate rife with personal attacks, Donald Trump's remarks on Planned Parenthood and the Sept. 11 attacks caused a stir, while Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz traded barbs on immigration and Spanish language proficiency. Photo: Getty In 1980, 18- to 29-year-olds divided almost equally between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Four years later, they picked Mr. Reagan over Walter Mondale, and then George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis.When millennials first began voting, in 2000, 18- to 29-year-olds split almost evenly between Al Gore and George W. Bush. But beginning in 2004, when they chose John Kerry over Mr. Bush, young people have tilted Democratic. In 2008, Mr. Obama won that age group by 34 percentage points, and in 2012, by 23 points. For the coming election, 60% of 18- to 34-year-olds indicated that they preferred a Democrat to win the White House, and 27% indicated Republican, according to latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. In the 2014 midterm elections, the turnout among millennials didn’t match that of other age groups—a typical pattern with young voters. Moreover, Democrats didn’t win as large a percentage of them as two years earlier. That points to the nagging question for Democrats: whether their recent advantage has been mostly a result of President Obama’s millennial appeal. Democrats profess confidence that their edge among young voters will outlast Mr. Obama. Republicans see opportunity to make gains because millennials are far less attached to traditional political parties than their elders. “Obama had this ability to mobilize young people. They bought into him as a person,” says Raffi Williams, a Republican National Committee official who is working on a program to expand the party’s outreach to millennials. “Without Obama there, we are coming onto equal ground trying to win over young voters.’’ Republican presidential candidates have several important dates ahead, where many delegates will be won or lost. WSJ's Jerry Seib explains why two days in March could make or break several contenders. Photo: AP Both parties are watching millennials carefully because young people are seen as shaping debate on social issues such as gay marriage and racial diversity. “I kind of hate to say it,” says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, “but the millennial generation is now important. Their views are becoming the dominant public views. Their attitudes about gay marriage and social tolerance are radically different than the previous generations, and they are restructuring our views.” The shift among young voters on social issues cuts across race and party. On gay rights, 64% of millennial Republicans believe homosexuality should be accepted in society, compared with 45% of baby boomer Republicans, according to the 2014 Pew Research Center survey. On immigration, 57% of millennial Republicans say immigrants strengthen the country, compared with 39% of baby boomer Republicans. Overall, when millennial Republicans were asked to describe their views in general terms, 31% say they are mostly or consistently conservative, compared with nearly two-thirds of baby-boomer Republicans. Economic issues don’t cut clearly in either party’s favor. Young voters have experienced an economy shadowed by debt—the government’s and their own. Many millennials entered the workforce in the throes of the 2008 financial crisis and the slow-growth period that followed. For Chase Hagaman, 27, of Portsmouth, N.H., the $250,000 debt he carries from college and law school is one factor in his and his wife’s decision to postpone having children. Mr. Hagaman works for the Concord Coalition, a group that advocates for federal-deficit reduction. He brought his concerns to a New Hampshire town hall meeting of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “We should be electing individuals willing to confront fiscal issues,” he said in an interview. Pete Lashier, a 19-year-old marketing student at Iowa State University, says fiscal issues are a priority. “We’re in a huge hole that could end up as something my generation has to be responsible for,’’ says Mr. Lasher, who says he is inclined to vote Republican. “I’m not super pumped up about that.” College debt is a concern for many young voters. “I have almost $20,000 in loans, and I’m only a sophomore,” says Zach Rodgers, 20, an Iowa State student who is working with the Clinton campaign and sees college affordability as a major issue among his peers. “Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, students are trying to get candidates to talk about it.” Some GOP presidential candidates have been looking for an opening in the economic pressures that millennials feel. “The consequences of Obama’s agenda have really come home to roost” for young people, Mr. Cruz of Texas told a college audience in New Hampshire in January. Mr. Rubio is the youngest major GOP candidate and the one most explicitly pitching his message to younger voters. He drops references to hip-hop artists and has held campaign events to focus on the millennial-driven “sharing economy.” He talks frequently about his own student loan debt. In January he launched a video ad targeted at millennial voters. For the Republican front-runner, Mr. Trump, the growing millennial vote cuts two ways. Some younger voters like his unscripted style. “He’s the most honest candidate we’ve ever had,” says Robbie Maass, 34, a Republican farmer from Ellsworth, Iowa. “His antics have garnered a younger audience to take a look at the Republican Party more than they normally would.” But his anti-immigration stands pose a risk of alienating young voters and making it difficult in a general election to win the large cohort of Hispanic millennials. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that 69% of Hispanic voters overall viewed Mr. Trump negatively, and 22% positively. Among all ethnicities, the poll found that 18- to 34-year-olds are the least likely age group to view Mr. Trump favorably, with only 17% rating him positively. The generation’s racial diversity has thus far helped the Democrats. Hispanics and blacks overwhelmingly favored Democrats and Mr. Obama in recent elections, while whites tilted Republican. In 2012, Hispanic millennials favored Mr. Obama by 74% to 23%, while white millennials broke for Mitt Romney 51% to 44%. For Mrs. Clinton, the results in Iowa and New Hampshire reveal that she has much work to do to win over millennials. She has succeeded with Mikayla Bodey, 20, a student at Ohio State University. Ms. Bodey says she had been interested in Mr. Kasich, whose record as Ohio’s Republican governor she admired. Then she heard Mrs. Clinton speak at a Columbus rally about the importance of women’s rights. When she met the candidate on the rope line, Ms. Bodey says, she wept with emotion and left the event torn about whom to support. She is now committed to Mrs. Clinton, she says, because of the tone and rightward tack of the GOP candidates. “I feel like they are not speaking to me anymore,” she says. But as Iowa and New Hampshire revealed, Mr. Sanders is something of a campus phenom, even though, at 74, he is the oldest candidate on the campaign trail. Much of early Mr. Sanders’s fundraising success was the handiwork of a 24-year old who built a popular fan forum for him on Reddit. Ms. Sanderlin, the 26-year-old from Richmond, Va., says she is supporting Mr. Sanders because he has been consistent on his positions through a long career in politics, while Mrs. Clinton shifted on issues such as gay marriage and the Iraq war. “I feel like she has changed her mind on things because that is what is popular for Democrats right now,” says Ms. Sanderlin. John Della Volpe, who as director of polling at the Harvard Institute of Politics has been surveying millennials since 2000, says young voters generally seem less interested in politicians’ résumés than in their candor. “Young people are really less interested in past accomplishments and more interested in today and the future,” he says. “They look for candidates who are focusing emotion, talking about the moment, being authentic.” _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
