This past summer, Kerry beat Bush in a national Canadian poll, 60-22. Bush's highest share was in that old Tory redoubt of Atlantic Canada, where his share rose to 37%.
Joel Blau Original Message: ----------------- From: Kenneth Campbell [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Tue, 5 Oct 2004 16:40:28 -0400 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Canadian polls on U.S. election For those that might find a modicum of interest... the following survey, post-debate. No surprise, here, though -- the results, I mean. I recall reading, when researching trends in election reporting in the media, how aghast Canadian media generally was that Reagan could have beat Carter in 1980. Reagan was viewed, through the lens of U.S. media, as some affable but unintelligent fellow who would make Polish jokes directly in front of reporters. I think most of the top-end elections in the U.S. have been cause for head scratching in Canada, amongst most levels of public discourse input. It crosses classes. Note that regional breakdown (Dem/Rep): Quebec 69-11 British Columbia 58-19 Ontario 53-19 Atlantic 49-28 Alberta 45-27 Manitoba 43-30 Saskatchewan 43-30 I wonder at that Saskatchewan and Manitoba score at the bottom. Sask is the homeland of Tommy Douglas and the CCF and national health care. Is Paul not from Manitoba? Is there some climate change in all that? Ken. --- cut here --- Canadians prefer Kerry to Bush: poll Canadian Press Sunday, Oct 3, 2004 Montreal � The results are enough to make John Kerry wish Canadians could vote in the U.S. presidential election. A Leger Marketing poll conducted Sept. 21-26 indicates 56 per cent of Canadians supported the Democratic candidate, compared with 19 per cent who backed U.S. President George W. Bush. The remaining 25 per cent refused to answer or said they didn't know. Mr. Kerry's strongest support in Canada came from Quebec, where 69 per cent of respondents said they preferred the challenger, compared with only 11 per cent who favoured Mr. Bush. Other regional breakdowns, with Mr. Kerry's numbers first and Mr. Bush's second, were: British Columbia, 58-19; Ontario, 53-19; the Atlantic provinces, 49-28; Alberta, 45-27; and Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 43-30. The 1,502 respondents were asked the following question: If you had the opportunity to vote during the American elections, for which of the two candidates would you vote? The poll, which is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20, also suggested 54 per cent of Canadians believed Mr. Bush's re-election on Nov. 2 would have a negative impact on peace and security in the world. Nineteen per cent said a second term for Mr. Bush would have a positive impact. Political scientist Pierre Martin wasn't surprised at Mr. Kerry's overwhelming lead in Canada, saying it's quite typical of findings elsewhere around the world. �In very few countries would you find even a close race,� Mr. Martin, director of the University of Montreal's Chair in American Political and Economic Studies, said in an interview. �Maybe one or two countries have an actual close majority for Bush but you have to look hard. You wouldn't get much Republican support these days for Canada as a 51st state. That's for sure.� Mr. Martin also took the Quebec numbers in stride. �Quebeckers are less conservative, they were also more supportive of [former U.S. Democratic president] Bill Clinton, for example.� Mr. Martin said Quebeckers also tend to get a lot of their news and perceptions of what is happening worldwide from France, one of the United States' most vocal critics on several issues. �So it's not surprising that Quebeckers are more in line with French opinion than other parts of the country.� As for the poll indicating a majority of Canadians thought Mr. Bush's re-election would have a negative impact on global peace, Mr. Martin said that viewpoint is in line with opinion in the rest of the world. �People tend to react very negatively to George Bush's more aggressive foreign policy and this kind of unilateralism that leaves other countries on the sidelines.� The poll also suggested 52 per cent of Canadians were very or somewhat interested in the U.S. election, compared with 47 per cent who expressed little or no interest. Interest was highest in Alberta � 69 per cent � while the 31 per cent level in Quebec was the lowest. -------------------------------------------------------------------- mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://mail2web.com/ .
